Ever had the experience of looking like an absolute idiot?
I quit a lucrative job with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and became a franchisee of NIIT in Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu. The year was 1994. Thanjavur was an extended village those days, albeit a District Headquarters. Though my mother tongue was tamil (if you can call Palghat Tamil that), my command over the language was quite poor as I was more fluent in Malayalam (having brought up in Kerala) and English.
As an entrepreneur, though I had an Academic Counsellor ( the name is a misnomer, the job was purely that of a salesperson), I used to do a fair bit of Counselling myself (hey! it was my own business after all) when prospective students came to join NIIT or to enquire about the courses we offered (for those who don't know, NIIT is an IT Training Major).
One day a boy who was doing his under graduation walked in at 6.30 pm to enquire about the course. I switched on my charm and gave him a sales pitch about the virtues of Computers, its future, job prospects, blah blah blah in English for nearly 45 minutes. The boy sat in front of me nodding his head and apparently taking in whatever I was dishing out. I laid down one USP after another, one benefit after another. Finally, I ran out of steam and asked him whether he would like to enrol. He said yes and went on to join the 3 year GNIIT programme. Over the period of next 15 days the boy, Ramkumar, brought 7 or 8 of his friends to enrol.
As time passed by Ramkumar, who was one of my better students was identified as a prospective employee was recruited as a Machine Room Coordinator and went on to serve me loyally and professionally.
While training the Academic Counsellors and my other staff, I used to brag about how effective my Counselling or Marketing skills were by pointing out the example of impressing Ramkumar when he came for enquiry which resulted in us getting 9 students.
One day in late 1997, I was bragging for the umpteenth time, turned to Ramkumar and asked him pompously " Ramkumar, tell these new staff all the benefits I explained when you came to join and how it assisted you in making a decision".
Ramkumar looked at me sadly and said (by then he has acquired sufficient seniority to tell the truth) " Sir, to tell the truth, I did not understand a single word you said for 45 minutes when I came to enrol"
Flabbergasted, I asked "But why?"
"Sir, you see, in 1994, I did not know English at all having done my schooling in Tamil Medium"
"But, then why and how did you enrol", I spluttered
"Sir, I joined because it was NIIT. I had heard about it and always wanted to study in NIIT"
All this in front of my current staff and the new staff. I have read in Ramayana that Seetha invoked her mother Earth to break open where she was standing and take her down. That was precisely how I felt then. Hoped I will be swallowed by the Earth. For I was never embarrassed as much in my life before and felt like an absolute cuckoo.
I learned an important lesson in Communication that day. Understand your recipient, his limitations and above all for god's sake never assume anything.
Wednesday, 9 January 2008
Tuesday, 8 January 2008
Man or Machine?
"Bill Gates, who built his fortune equipping the personal computer, predicts that the keyboard and mouse will soon become relics.
Gates said the "first digital decade", centred on the keyboard and the mouse, was over. "The second digital decade will be more focused on connecting people," he said, predicting it would also feature progress in training machines to react as people do, with "natural user interfaces" responsive to speech and touch.
The founder of Microsoft Corp spelt out a vision of a “digital decade” of telephones, televisions and cars that respond to voice and touch. “This is the area that people underestimate the most,” he said. Gates predicted that high-definition video “will be everywhere” from TV to wall projections to screens built into desks. Users will be able to roam in 3-D through virtual worlds when they shop or interact online with friends. Devices will connect seamlessly so that data is transferred automatically from computer to mobile phone, for instance. “When you take a photo, it will show up where you want it to show up,” he said. "
Amongst all these technological revolution, are we forgetting the good old Human Being, his aspirations, feelings? I wonder!!
Gates said the "first digital decade", centred on the keyboard and the mouse, was over. "The second digital decade will be more focused on connecting people," he said, predicting it would also feature progress in training machines to react as people do, with "natural user interfaces" responsive to speech and touch.
The founder of Microsoft Corp spelt out a vision of a “digital decade” of telephones, televisions and cars that respond to voice and touch. “This is the area that people underestimate the most,” he said. Gates predicted that high-definition video “will be everywhere” from TV to wall projections to screens built into desks. Users will be able to roam in 3-D through virtual worlds when they shop or interact online with friends. Devices will connect seamlessly so that data is transferred automatically from computer to mobile phone, for instance. “When you take a photo, it will show up where you want it to show up,” he said. "
Amongst all these technological revolution, are we forgetting the good old Human Being, his aspirations, feelings? I wonder!!
Monday, 7 January 2008
Do we have enough lamp posts to hang the corrupt?
The tragedy of India is not that it does not have sufficient funds to eradicate poverty. There are schemes and schemes for the poor with allocations running to thousands of crores. Every successive Government has come out with more schemes for the poor keeping an eye on the vote bank. However, the delivery mechanism is so poor, implementation tardy and leakages very high that only 15 paise of every rupee spent by the Government actually reaches the intended recipient. What happens to the balance? Well I don't have to elaborate.
UPA Government launched the Rs 12,000 crores National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme couple of years back. Under this, households in 200 of the poorest districts in the country are promised, by law, to a maximum of 100 days employment at wages not below Rs 60 per day. The government has been bragging its success through advertisements titled "building a Republic of Work.
Like most of its predecessors, this scheme is a spectacular failure. Barely 3.2 per cent of the registered households could avail of 100 days of employment in one year — between February 2006 and March 2007. And the average employment provided under the scheme was just 18 days.
This are not my facts but this startling revelation comes after a six-month performance audit conducted in the field under the aegis of the Comptroller & Auditor General of the NREGS in 513 Gram Panchayats spread across 68 randomly selected districts from 26 states. The report highlights a slew of instances from all states of alleged corruption, inefficiency, diversion and misutilisation of funds and unreliable figures.
The audit has identified the key reasons behind the mismanagement: deficient financial management and tracking system, “inadequate” and “delayed” planning of the works, absence of authenticated books for records, workers being paid wages lower than the minimum wage rate. Lack of “adequate administrative and technical manpower” at the local level is also marked as one of the main deficiencies affecting the implementation of the programme.
The most horrifying part is that Government, instead of improving the delivery mechanism and ensuring 100% compliance, has already added an additional 130 districts last year and has ambitious plans in the election year to extend this Scheme across the country.
The allocation for this scheme comes from our hard earned money - what we pay as taxes. Why should we subsidise corruption?
And amongst all these, the poor languish, shivering in the cold wave that is blowing across North India and not knowing where the next meal is coming from.
We need to hang the people on lamp posts who deny the money that is meant for the poorest of poor. But then as someone said, we don't have enough lamp posts in the country to implement this plan of mass hanging.
UPA Government launched the Rs 12,000 crores National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme couple of years back. Under this, households in 200 of the poorest districts in the country are promised, by law, to a maximum of 100 days employment at wages not below Rs 60 per day. The government has been bragging its success through advertisements titled "building a Republic of Work.
Like most of its predecessors, this scheme is a spectacular failure. Barely 3.2 per cent of the registered households could avail of 100 days of employment in one year — between February 2006 and March 2007. And the average employment provided under the scheme was just 18 days.
This are not my facts but this startling revelation comes after a six-month performance audit conducted in the field under the aegis of the Comptroller & Auditor General of the NREGS in 513 Gram Panchayats spread across 68 randomly selected districts from 26 states. The report highlights a slew of instances from all states of alleged corruption, inefficiency, diversion and misutilisation of funds and unreliable figures.
The audit has identified the key reasons behind the mismanagement: deficient financial management and tracking system, “inadequate” and “delayed” planning of the works, absence of authenticated books for records, workers being paid wages lower than the minimum wage rate. Lack of “adequate administrative and technical manpower” at the local level is also marked as one of the main deficiencies affecting the implementation of the programme.
The most horrifying part is that Government, instead of improving the delivery mechanism and ensuring 100% compliance, has already added an additional 130 districts last year and has ambitious plans in the election year to extend this Scheme across the country.
The allocation for this scheme comes from our hard earned money - what we pay as taxes. Why should we subsidise corruption?
And amongst all these, the poor languish, shivering in the cold wave that is blowing across North India and not knowing where the next meal is coming from.
We need to hang the people on lamp posts who deny the money that is meant for the poorest of poor. But then as someone said, we don't have enough lamp posts in the country to implement this plan of mass hanging.
Saturday, 5 January 2008
Of leaves and cowdung
My readers might ask why I am reverting to the past to find examples of instances that describes a management concept. The more I look at things in a detached, philosophical way, the more I am amazed at how our ancestors were actually practicing most of the concepts that we talk about today and it is almost as if we are reinventing the wheel.
A stray remark by a student of mine acted as a trigger to this post. He works for the Petrochemical Industry and was concerned that one of their products, the ubiquitous black garbage bag, might be banned through a Governmental legislation in Kuwait. The reason being it bio non degradable.
In an era where grave concerns exist about global warming, environmental pollution and general lowering of quality of air we breath or the water we drink, I could not but look back at my childhood and smile at the wisdom of my forefathers who were more in sync with the environment.
My grandparents used plantain leaves while eating or used a small spoon made of Jack fruit tree leaves to drink porridge. Both readily available in the backyard. All you needed was a small knife to cut the leaves and exactly 10 seconds to manufacture the spoon. They were also easy to dispose as they were thrown under a coconut tree and the bio degradable leaves served as a manure for the trees.
When we were travelling, grandmother will first dry the leaves and pack the curd rice, lemon rice or tamarind rice in the leaf and tie it with thread made out of plantain stem. Not for her the plastic bags or even the cumbersome tiffin boxes. The dry leaves ensured the freshness of the food and it was easy to dispose off the used leaves, which were, well you know, bio degradable and Eco friendly.
One of the enduring memories of my school and college days were the numerous train journeys I made to Delhi where my brother was working. On the third morning, the train will chug into Agra Station. Icy winds will be blowing and then you have the welcome sight of the tea wallah of Agra who will serve hot tea on a 'kulhar' - an earthen tumbler. The predecessor of the use and throw plastic cup but with one advantage - kulhar is extremely Eco friendly and very much bio degradable.
Talking of Kulhar one is reminded of the taste of the water stored in an earthen pot and the small earthen lamps used to be lit in dozens during Karthigai festival. I have always marvelled at the artistic skills of the potter whose hands used to create earthen items of various shapes and sizes from clay. He lived in poverty but never compromised on his craftsmanship. How about the weaver, who was instrumental in creating hand loom cloth made of cotton? Cotton hand loom clothes are most comfortable to wear and are extremely Eco friendly unlike their polyester sibling.
Grandfather always had at least 3 cows. Apart from giving fresh milk, the cow dung was used for various purposes - creating an quick artificial flooring to manure for the vegetable garden.
I can go on and on. People those days were living in harmony with the nature and took sufficient care to ensure they did not disturb the balance of nature. But as we 'progressed', we have mindlessly destroyed all the good practices one by one and are standing on the verge of a crisis of international proportions. Environmental pollution due to plastic bags, Styrofoam cups, obsolete computer motherboards, printer cartridges, industrial waste and other bio non degradable materials has become a genie that has been uncorked. No one knows how to put the genie back in the bottle. Turning the clock back by a few years could help perhaps. Where oh Where have the wisdom of the forefathers gone?
A stray remark by a student of mine acted as a trigger to this post. He works for the Petrochemical Industry and was concerned that one of their products, the ubiquitous black garbage bag, might be banned through a Governmental legislation in Kuwait. The reason being it bio non degradable.
In an era where grave concerns exist about global warming, environmental pollution and general lowering of quality of air we breath or the water we drink, I could not but look back at my childhood and smile at the wisdom of my forefathers who were more in sync with the environment.
My grandparents used plantain leaves while eating or used a small spoon made of Jack fruit tree leaves to drink porridge. Both readily available in the backyard. All you needed was a small knife to cut the leaves and exactly 10 seconds to manufacture the spoon. They were also easy to dispose as they were thrown under a coconut tree and the bio degradable leaves served as a manure for the trees.
When we were travelling, grandmother will first dry the leaves and pack the curd rice, lemon rice or tamarind rice in the leaf and tie it with thread made out of plantain stem. Not for her the plastic bags or even the cumbersome tiffin boxes. The dry leaves ensured the freshness of the food and it was easy to dispose off the used leaves, which were, well you know, bio degradable and Eco friendly.
One of the enduring memories of my school and college days were the numerous train journeys I made to Delhi where my brother was working. On the third morning, the train will chug into Agra Station. Icy winds will be blowing and then you have the welcome sight of the tea wallah of Agra who will serve hot tea on a 'kulhar' - an earthen tumbler. The predecessor of the use and throw plastic cup but with one advantage - kulhar is extremely Eco friendly and very much bio degradable.
Talking of Kulhar one is reminded of the taste of the water stored in an earthen pot and the small earthen lamps used to be lit in dozens during Karthigai festival. I have always marvelled at the artistic skills of the potter whose hands used to create earthen items of various shapes and sizes from clay. He lived in poverty but never compromised on his craftsmanship. How about the weaver, who was instrumental in creating hand loom cloth made of cotton? Cotton hand loom clothes are most comfortable to wear and are extremely Eco friendly unlike their polyester sibling.
Grandfather always had at least 3 cows. Apart from giving fresh milk, the cow dung was used for various purposes - creating an quick artificial flooring to manure for the vegetable garden.
I can go on and on. People those days were living in harmony with the nature and took sufficient care to ensure they did not disturb the balance of nature. But as we 'progressed', we have mindlessly destroyed all the good practices one by one and are standing on the verge of a crisis of international proportions. Environmental pollution due to plastic bags, Styrofoam cups, obsolete computer motherboards, printer cartridges, industrial waste and other bio non degradable materials has become a genie that has been uncorked. No one knows how to put the genie back in the bottle. Turning the clock back by a few years could help perhaps. Where oh Where have the wisdom of the forefathers gone?
Thursday, 3 January 2008
Commodity to Branding - Is it beneficial?
Till mid 1980's, the process of grocery purchase for the house was different. Father, on consultation with the mother, will say out aloud the items and quantity to be purchased and it was my duty to write it down as a list dutifully. The list was then taken to the regular grocery shop and left with him. It takes an hour for him to pack the items we required and keep it ready. Remember, in those days, everything was a commodity and the grocer has to physically weigh the quantity required, then pack it in a newspaper as a bundle (recycling of used paper, very Eco friendly) and tie it with a string. We had to give him some vessels for him to measure out the quantity of oil which came to him in bulk quantity packed in tins. The bread was purchased fresh from the bakery and was packed in paper in front of our eyes. No one even worried about adulteration (though it was prevalent) or quality. But if you buy from a reputed grocery shop, you were assured of the quality. Branding was unheard of. The rice went by the generic name of Ponni boiled, Ponni raw, Matta boiled etc.
First sign that things were changing came in mid 1980's. The salt was sold as a commodity and cost about Rs 0.25 per kg. Tata came out with their iodized salt and advertised heavily. My father, who was always a sucker for any advertised products (he was a marketing man's dream), was on of the early adopters. I, who was just out of MBA, argued vehemently against paying 10 times for an item as common as common salt, for the cost of 1kg of Tata iodised salt was Rs 2.50. By any stretch of imagination or marketing logic, the product should have failed as there was no value addition, other than being iodized whereby preventing Goitre (not that people had a ghost of a chance of getting it), that justified a 10 fold increase. But, Tata being Tata, got away with it. To me, that was the beginning of popularising branding in grocery products. Till then, the branding was aimed at wholesalers and retailers but never towards the end users.
In two decades, the market has undergone a sea change. Today, we hardly see a commodity being sold. The layouts of the grocery shops have changed. Every single item is packaged and branded. The last bastion fell when the Rice, which was always sold as a commodity, started to be branded. I visited a rice merchant during my last visit to my native place and was surprised to see that he did not have a single unbranded rice in his shop, and he has been in existence for 50 years. I saw different brands, in different package sizes and in different colours. Same is true of oil, bread, jagiri, pappad, sugar, salt, pulses. Milk which was a commodity (remember the milkman who came in a cycle or better still the lady who came with a herd of buffaloes and milked in front of your eyes in Hyderabad?) had long since become a brand with the introduction of packet milk.
On looking around, the only things that remains a commodity are Vegetables, Fruits, Coconut and jasmine flower. Even drinking water is branded. How long will these remain a commodity?
This is not a trip down the memory lane. My point is that we need to evaluate whether this change has resulted in a positive fallout for the customer. Are we assured of the quality? I do not frankly think so. Adulteration is still prevalent. Many argue that there is a consistency in quality. That may be true. But in olden days, when we were buying from the same shop, we were assured of the same consistency. Maybe there is an advantage that we can buy the same brand in most parts of the world. However, one need to understand that packaging and branding has pushed the prices up considerably. Are we getting the value for the additional money paid?
And of course, my old grouse remains. Advent of supermarkets have ensured that we do additional work of picking, carrying and billing which was done earlier by the sales boy. This cost needs to be incorporated. And, finally, there was a personal relationship between the grocer and our family. We used to get good tips on products, their quality and price. There was a transfer of knowledge. All these are gone forever.
Do I have regrets? Maybe. But life moves on and I am not one to carry baggage from the past. Still it pays to critically evaluate the benefits of change
First sign that things were changing came in mid 1980's. The salt was sold as a commodity and cost about Rs 0.25 per kg. Tata came out with their iodized salt and advertised heavily. My father, who was always a sucker for any advertised products (he was a marketing man's dream), was on of the early adopters. I, who was just out of MBA, argued vehemently against paying 10 times for an item as common as common salt, for the cost of 1kg of Tata iodised salt was Rs 2.50. By any stretch of imagination or marketing logic, the product should have failed as there was no value addition, other than being iodized whereby preventing Goitre (not that people had a ghost of a chance of getting it), that justified a 10 fold increase. But, Tata being Tata, got away with it. To me, that was the beginning of popularising branding in grocery products. Till then, the branding was aimed at wholesalers and retailers but never towards the end users.
In two decades, the market has undergone a sea change. Today, we hardly see a commodity being sold. The layouts of the grocery shops have changed. Every single item is packaged and branded. The last bastion fell when the Rice, which was always sold as a commodity, started to be branded. I visited a rice merchant during my last visit to my native place and was surprised to see that he did not have a single unbranded rice in his shop, and he has been in existence for 50 years. I saw different brands, in different package sizes and in different colours. Same is true of oil, bread, jagiri, pappad, sugar, salt, pulses. Milk which was a commodity (remember the milkman who came in a cycle or better still the lady who came with a herd of buffaloes and milked in front of your eyes in Hyderabad?) had long since become a brand with the introduction of packet milk.
On looking around, the only things that remains a commodity are Vegetables, Fruits, Coconut and jasmine flower. Even drinking water is branded. How long will these remain a commodity?
This is not a trip down the memory lane. My point is that we need to evaluate whether this change has resulted in a positive fallout for the customer. Are we assured of the quality? I do not frankly think so. Adulteration is still prevalent. Many argue that there is a consistency in quality. That may be true. But in olden days, when we were buying from the same shop, we were assured of the same consistency. Maybe there is an advantage that we can buy the same brand in most parts of the world. However, one need to understand that packaging and branding has pushed the prices up considerably. Are we getting the value for the additional money paid?
And of course, my old grouse remains. Advent of supermarkets have ensured that we do additional work of picking, carrying and billing which was done earlier by the sales boy. This cost needs to be incorporated. And, finally, there was a personal relationship between the grocer and our family. We used to get good tips on products, their quality and price. There was a transfer of knowledge. All these are gone forever.
Do I have regrets? Maybe. But life moves on and I am not one to carry baggage from the past. Still it pays to critically evaluate the benefits of change
Wednesday, 2 January 2008
Crystal Ball gazing 2008
Beginning of an year is ideal for crystal ball gazing. Let me make some predictions.
The political comatose situation in the Centre is likely to continue. Though the Gujarat results have ensured that the chances of a General Election in 2008 is almost zero. Congress party will try to retain power by making any compromise and the CPI(M) who can pull down the Government is wary of doing so in view of the shaky ground they find themselves in currently in West Bengal and Kerala, only place where they have a presence. Other coalition partners are totally against a General Election. Congress will hope against hope to perform better in the Assembly elections due in BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh and Rajastan to give them some momentum leading to General Election in early 2009. Dr.Manmohan Singh is a good man. But good men don't make great leaders. I would any day prefer a scoundrel who is a good leader and administrator to a spineless good man. He should have quit long ago if he had any decency left rather than allowing himself to be ridiculed by his party and every other coalition partners. I don't think even the cleaning staff in his office shows any respect for him. All the while, the power behind the throne, Sonia Gandhi, hides behind a barricade refusing to give press or TV interviews but wielding enormous Authority without any Accountability. BJP is in disarray and despite the victory in Gujarat and HP, they have failed totally as a responsible opposition party. We might however see a realignment of forces leading to the General election at local and national levels. The strength and number of alliance partners will decide who will rule India for the next five years. Not a pleasant scenario politically. Cry my beloved country!
Economically, this is not going to be great. With the government refusing to take hard steps, the drift that started a year back is likely to continue. With the world poised for a recession, the impact will be felt on Indian economy. We may not get the high 9% GDP Growth rate. Appreciating rupee, near stagnant growth in Agriculture, drop in Industrial production, continued subsidies and downtrend in exports will ensure that we end up with a 7% Growth. With inflation likely to be in the range of 5-6% (forget what the government claims, the ground reality is that we have 5% inflation, if not more), the Real GDP growth rate is likely to be 1-2% which is worrisome. We can expect more social sector spending, more sops and in all likelihood another Pay Commission award to government employees. The last will fuel inflation. As will high energy prices. Government has been refusing to take hard decisions on the pricing of the petroleum products, but this cant be put off forever. Higher fuel prices is will increase inflationary pressures. Rupee is expected to maintain its position and is likely to be in the bandwidth of Rs 38 - 41 during the year. Real Estate prices will remain stagnant and stock markets might stabilize at 18000-21000 as all the above factors will make investors cautious. Gold will rule roost and may even appreciate by 10% mainly as a result of weak dollar. Good time to invest in yellow metal. Decisions of SEZs likely to be put off but there could be some spurt in infrastructure projects so that the Government can show some visible progress.
Internal security will continue to be a cause for worry as the Government has virtually slept through the past 4 years hardly putting any concrete systems in place to counter terrorism. Borders will continue to be sensitive with Pakistan on a transition phase, Bangladesh unstable, Nepal shaky, China a nuisance and Srilanka on a razor edge. Again as a nation, we are paying the price for being meek with our neighbours. With certain type of people, only might talks not diplomacy.
Energy front will continue to suffer from the lack of foresight of the successive governments. Nuclear deal is all but dead, with both Indian and US governments more than happy to pass on the buck to the next governments. We are not likely to meet the targets for Power generation capacity enhancement in 2008. This will adversely affect our growth in the long run. We need energy security and the crying need of the hour is some out of the box thinking.
Not much success can be expected on the sports front. 2008 is an Olympics year. The drama of a large contingent going to Beijing and returning empty handed is likely to be repeated. Cricket team does not evoke much confident and we will have to be happy with an occasional victory for Sania Mirza, who is never going to crack the top 10. Only saving grace could be the Chess Players and it is time someone recognized Vishy Anand and gave him a Bharat Ratna. The guy is the most underrated sportsperson in India and the only one who has brought laurels to the country consistently.
Environmental degradation, crowded cities, breaking down of civic infrastructure, continued poverty of the rural people, more industries, burgeoning middle class, growing consumption economy, status quo in eduction - all these are likely to continue.
It is a small miracle how we progress inspite of the system, but we do.
Mera Bharat Mahan!
The political comatose situation in the Centre is likely to continue. Though the Gujarat results have ensured that the chances of a General Election in 2008 is almost zero. Congress party will try to retain power by making any compromise and the CPI(M) who can pull down the Government is wary of doing so in view of the shaky ground they find themselves in currently in West Bengal and Kerala, only place where they have a presence. Other coalition partners are totally against a General Election. Congress will hope against hope to perform better in the Assembly elections due in BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh and Rajastan to give them some momentum leading to General Election in early 2009. Dr.Manmohan Singh is a good man. But good men don't make great leaders. I would any day prefer a scoundrel who is a good leader and administrator to a spineless good man. He should have quit long ago if he had any decency left rather than allowing himself to be ridiculed by his party and every other coalition partners. I don't think even the cleaning staff in his office shows any respect for him. All the while, the power behind the throne, Sonia Gandhi, hides behind a barricade refusing to give press or TV interviews but wielding enormous Authority without any Accountability. BJP is in disarray and despite the victory in Gujarat and HP, they have failed totally as a responsible opposition party. We might however see a realignment of forces leading to the General election at local and national levels. The strength and number of alliance partners will decide who will rule India for the next five years. Not a pleasant scenario politically. Cry my beloved country!
Economically, this is not going to be great. With the government refusing to take hard steps, the drift that started a year back is likely to continue. With the world poised for a recession, the impact will be felt on Indian economy. We may not get the high 9% GDP Growth rate. Appreciating rupee, near stagnant growth in Agriculture, drop in Industrial production, continued subsidies and downtrend in exports will ensure that we end up with a 7% Growth. With inflation likely to be in the range of 5-6% (forget what the government claims, the ground reality is that we have 5% inflation, if not more), the Real GDP growth rate is likely to be 1-2% which is worrisome. We can expect more social sector spending, more sops and in all likelihood another Pay Commission award to government employees. The last will fuel inflation. As will high energy prices. Government has been refusing to take hard decisions on the pricing of the petroleum products, but this cant be put off forever. Higher fuel prices is will increase inflationary pressures. Rupee is expected to maintain its position and is likely to be in the bandwidth of Rs 38 - 41 during the year. Real Estate prices will remain stagnant and stock markets might stabilize at 18000-21000 as all the above factors will make investors cautious. Gold will rule roost and may even appreciate by 10% mainly as a result of weak dollar. Good time to invest in yellow metal. Decisions of SEZs likely to be put off but there could be some spurt in infrastructure projects so that the Government can show some visible progress.
Internal security will continue to be a cause for worry as the Government has virtually slept through the past 4 years hardly putting any concrete systems in place to counter terrorism. Borders will continue to be sensitive with Pakistan on a transition phase, Bangladesh unstable, Nepal shaky, China a nuisance and Srilanka on a razor edge. Again as a nation, we are paying the price for being meek with our neighbours. With certain type of people, only might talks not diplomacy.
Energy front will continue to suffer from the lack of foresight of the successive governments. Nuclear deal is all but dead, with both Indian and US governments more than happy to pass on the buck to the next governments. We are not likely to meet the targets for Power generation capacity enhancement in 2008. This will adversely affect our growth in the long run. We need energy security and the crying need of the hour is some out of the box thinking.
Not much success can be expected on the sports front. 2008 is an Olympics year. The drama of a large contingent going to Beijing and returning empty handed is likely to be repeated. Cricket team does not evoke much confident and we will have to be happy with an occasional victory for Sania Mirza, who is never going to crack the top 10. Only saving grace could be the Chess Players and it is time someone recognized Vishy Anand and gave him a Bharat Ratna. The guy is the most underrated sportsperson in India and the only one who has brought laurels to the country consistently.
Environmental degradation, crowded cities, breaking down of civic infrastructure, continued poverty of the rural people, more industries, burgeoning middle class, growing consumption economy, status quo in eduction - all these are likely to continue.
It is a small miracle how we progress inspite of the system, but we do.
Mera Bharat Mahan!
Tuesday, 1 January 2008
Asathoma Sath Gamaya
"ASATHOMA SATH GAMAYA
THAMASOMA JYOTHIR GAMAYA
MRUTHYORMA AMRUTHAM GAMAYA
OHM! SANTHI SANTHI SANTHI"
This prayer invokes the God to take us from,
Untruth to Truth
Darkness (ignorance) to Light (knowledge)
Death to Immortality
And let there be Peace, Peace, Peace!
Here is wishing for Peace in the New Year
THAMASOMA JYOTHIR GAMAYA
MRUTHYORMA AMRUTHAM GAMAYA
OHM! SANTHI SANTHI SANTHI"
This prayer invokes the God to take us from,
Untruth to Truth
Darkness (ignorance) to Light (knowledge)
Death to Immortality
And let there be Peace, Peace, Peace!
Here is wishing for Peace in the New Year
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