Sober Thought

Rupee's prospects do not look bright. With deepening fault lines in the economy, mainly due to mounting fiscal deficit, backed by an insipid budget, Rupee continues to slide and is expected to touch Rs 53 to US Dollar soon. While this is good news for NRIs like me, and for exporters, it is bound to increase the inflationary pressure.

Another major cause for concern is the mounting Non Performing Assets with Indian Banks. With interest rates rising, most of the Banks are seeing an alarming rise in their NPA. This is bound to have serious implications. The credit rating agencies have already started downgrading Indian Banks, making it dearer for them to get credit in the open market. With hardly any takers for loans, due to high interest rates, the play-cautious attitude of the Banks towards new loans, which is likely under the current scenario, will further slowdown investment in the economy. What is alarming is the total ineffectiveness of the Banks to initiate recovery proceedings against the defaulting Industrial Houses.

In the near term the interest rates will continue to rule high, banks will lend less and money supply will be curtailed. We are almost nearing the economic crisis point of the late 1980s. And that is a sober thought.

Larger issues pertaining to the Indian Army

Much has been written about the transgression of the Army Chief General V K Singh.

Let us take the issues on hand one by one.

First pertains to his fight over the Date of Birth. No one disputes that his actual DOB is in 1951, and the Army records depicting it as 1950 was a mistake. Irrespective of whether he should have had it corrected within 2 years of joining (what the heck, it was so long ago, when he was junior officer who never thought this will affect him at a later stage, and in an establishment that do not encourage people to question superiors!!), or that he accepted the DOB as 1950 twice, the fact remains that he was born in 1951, and not 1950. He had a valid case and approached the Army and the Defence Ministry to sort it out. When he did not get justice, he approached the Supreme Court, which he has a right, as a citizen of India. What is wrong in that? Everyone has the right to redress the grievance and escalate the grievance to the highest authority. When the SC gave a decision against him, he accepted it gracefully and carried on with his work. The argument that he taking the case to the SC tarnished the Army is specious, to say the least.

The second issue is his letter to PM, telling him how much the Army is  under-prepared. PM is the leader of the Nation, and what is wrong with the Army Chief writing a Confidential note to him? Wasn't he doing his duty? There is no evidence that he leaked the letter. If there had been a shred of evidence, he would have been hauled up by now. Since the Government is keeping a low profile, it is fairly certain, the leak came from PMO or Defence Ministry. Let us assume for the sake of argument that the General did indeed leak the letter. Again what is wrong with that? His detractors claim that it has given the enemies of India information that they dont know. This is crap. The enemy spies know exactly what our weaknesses are, more than us, with or without the letter. Also, the Chief, and many Chiefs before him, have written to PM and Defence Minister in past, but nothing has happened. The files have been put to pasture. Who elects the PM and the Defence Minister? The Public. What is wrong in bringing it to Public - the ultimate authority's- notice. None. A good Percentage of our annual allotment goes for Defence procurement. Why shouldnt we know how the proceeds are used in reality?

The third issue pertains to the alleged bribe offer made to him a year and a half back. He brought it to the Defence Ministers notice, who did not give him the right signals to proceed. Instead, he was asked to give in writing, which he should have. But, when your Minister, who is known to be honest, dont show the interest in tackling the issue head on,  dont give you the right cues, but rather give a bureaucratic answer, you tend to think twice. Perhaps he thought it fit to retreat a bit to win the war later. An error of judgement, which is understandable.

We are missing the bigger issue here. By attacking the General, we are forgetting the bigger issues that need attention - lack of flexibility in the army which makes it difficult for an aggrieved person to get justice, the corruption in defence procurements, the army totally unprepared to defend our country and the control the civilians have over the army, to the detriment of the same. If some of our top officers will compromise the quality of the equipments for a few lakhs, what commitment will they have to defending our country? And by setting a bad example, they are compromising their subordinates too.

And the politicians? Have you heard one solid action from any one in the Government as to how to tackle corruption in defence procurement? The answer is an emphatic NO.

And therein lies the tragedy.

Of Snakes and Rascals

I am scared of Snakes. There is no specific reason for this. Maybe it is the fear of being bitten by a snake, or the mere revulsion I get when I see the slithery creatures, or it could be the numerous stories I read as a child, where the snakes were depicted as undesirable creatures (with the exception of a few like Ananthan, Vasuki).

But what about the Snakes in the Human form? The damage that a snake can do pales in comparison to what some human beings can do, like our politicians who loot us to such an extend that we are being slowly poisoned to death as individuals and as a country.

No wonder Chanakya wrote about this in Arthasasthra long long ago,

"Of a RASCAL and a SERPENT, the serpent is the better of the two, for he strikes only at the time he is destined to kill, while the former at every step"

Promise to be regular from now on

I know I have been quiet for a while. Was immersed in work, and just did not have the frame of mind to blog.

I shall be regular from now on.

And thank you for bearing with me

Of this and that...................

Queried whether lack of leadership was behind poor performance of Congress in UP, Sonia Gandhi responded, "I would say rather than lack of leadership, (there are) too many leaders... That is our problem." - Too many leaders???? And that too only in UP? I think it was a slip of the tongue. What she meant was 'there were too many 'Bleeders', who bled Congress to death - Rahul Gandhi, Digvijay Singh, Rita Bahuguna Joshi, Salman Khushid and so on

Asked about the reasons that could have impacted the party's performance, she said in UP, weak organizational structure and wrong choice of candidates could have been the factors - And pray who has been in charge of heading the Youth Congress and responsible for UP for the past few years, especially ticket distribution? Her own dumb witted son. Anyway, where is the bloody Organization for Congress in UP, or for that matter anywhere in the Country?

Asked whether corruption was an issue in the elections, she claimed that the Congress was the only party fighting against corruption.  "We passed the Lokpal bill in Lok Sabha...But who blocked it in the Rajya Sabha?" she asked.- She could do well to refresh the Rajya Sabha proceedings of the last day of the previous session. It was her own party that decided to prolong till the clock struck mid night and hastily withdrew the bill.

Rita Bahuguna Joshi, the UPCC Chief, who was in the forefront in masterminding the spectacular defeat of Congress in UP, should have been given the boot. But hey presto! Her family is rewarded through the air dropping of her brother Vijay Bahuguna in Uttarakhand to become the CM. So much for accountability

We used to comment in a light vein that a particular bad actor should be given an award, so that he wont take up acting again. Similarly I sincerely wish Sachin Tendulkar will get his 100th International Century, so that the guy will decide to hang up his boots once for all. There is a saying that one should retire when people ask 'Why' and not 'Why not?'. In Tendulkar's case it has gone even beyond that. It is more like "Why the HELL is he STILL NOT GONE?"

Tragedy of lost opportunity

Successful people create opportunities. At least they grab opportunities without fail. What they dont do is indulge in passive inertia, hoping that things will fall in place somehow.

So do successful nations.

The corollary is true. If you dont exploit the opportunities at the opportune moment, you will most certainly be left behind.

The last sentence, in a nut shell, epitomises the tragedy of India.

We had a great opportunity to become one of the leading global economies in early 1970's. The public spending was at an all time high, the post independence generation was about to enter the job market and they were a breed apart- intelligent, educated and not tied down by the diffidence of having studied under the British. But an insecure and autocratic Indira Gandhi set us back by a good 30 yeares through her so called socialistic corrupt regime, that benefitted none but she and her cronies.

Rajiv Gandhi, first, and PV Narasimha Rao, later out of compulsion, changed the track of Indian economy and Vajpayee built on it beautifully. 1995-2004 was the period when India came to be recognised as an emerging global economy. The GDP was growing at 8% and the next generation of brash, confident, arrogant young generation with no inferiority complexx whatsoever was ready to take the world on.

But, to their disgust, the two successive Sonia-Manmohan Singh misgovernance put paid to the asprations of India ever becoming a force to reckon with in the world arena.

The financial melt down of 2008 globally, from which India was isolated (by accident and not by design), should have been the cue to storm the world economy and rewrite the rules, as the Chinese did.

But policy paralysis, pusillanimity, lack of strategic vision, absence of political leadership meant India being ruled by the status quo comfortable bureaucracy who ensured we remained were we were, and even tried to push us back to 1980s.

We have missed the bus for now, and the negative impact of the lost decade will be felt throughout this century.

What a tragedy!!!!

Rise of the Local Chieftains

Prior to Independence, India was a collection of Kingdoms and States, administered separately, and having their own Kings, Ministers, or Administrative heads. In a way, the British unified India, though the real credit for bringing together all the States goes to Sardar Vallabhai Patel, who using a mixture of Sama Dana Bheda Dhandam tactics, managed to cajole, threaten everyone to create a larger India.

Thus we can safely assume that the Federal character of India was in existence even a century ago, and is nothing new. The British, first tried to gather all the power at the Centre, which was duplicated by Jawaharlal Nehru during his decade and a half tenure as PM. To be fair to Nehru, he was not an Authoritarian, but a liberal, who allowed the local State leaders to flourish. We had some real towering leaders at the State level like Panth, Chavan, EMS, Kamaraj, Nijalingappa to name a few. A highly insecure Indira Gandhi, who had strong autocratic inclinations, concentrated the power in the Centre, and the concept of all powerful Central Government, dwarfing over State Governments took roots during her tenure. But since her death, the power of the Centre started diminishing rapidly and has eroded to such an extend during the past decade, that no one takes Central Government and its leadership seriously any more. 

During this period, we have seen the National Parties like Congress and BJP, being marginalized, and not even a force in any of the major States. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian Parties - AIADMK and DMK hold sway, in Karnataka, though BJP is in power, it is more due to the power held by lingayats headed by Yeduriyappa, the Congress is all but broken in AP, with TRS and Jagans regional outfit expect to decimate it in the next elections. This not taking into account TDP ruling for nearly two decades, before their ouster. Shiv Sena is a power to reckon with in Maharashtra,  Akali Dal in Punjab, Mamata in West Bengal, Navin Patnaik in Orissa, Nitish in Bihar, and NC/PDP in Kashmir. BSP/SP in UP has muscled out both the national parties. Only major states where the Congress and BJP hold fort are Rajasthan and MP. 

Thus, in a way, we are back to the era of powerless Centre and powerful local chieftains. And situation is likely to remain like this. The two party dominant political arena is a thing of the past, and remains more in the thoughts of political commentators, who are fed by Congress Party, than anyone else.

There are indications that the powerful State Chieftains will create a ginger group to exert pressure on the Centre to have their own way in the future. We have already seen the FDI in retail being scrapped and the Counter Terrorism Bill on hold.

The changes in the Economy post reforms has got something to do with the demise of the strong Centre concept. With Government ceasing to be the main driver of the economy (the economy is on autopilot and self-functioning), people no longer look upto Central Government, as its decision has relatively less impact on the aam admi. What they need is solutions to their day to day problems, which they feel can be done only by a party who is local and apparently sensitive to their needs.

In such a scenario, it is amusing to see Congress (BJP is better in this regard, as they have many strong local leaders like Modi, Chauhan, Uma Bharathi, Yeduriappa, Vasundhare Raja Scindia etc) going back to the victorian era of imperialistic dynasty based politics, where even a senior State Leader like Kamat of Goa, or Oomen Chandy of Kerala, or Gehlot of Rajastan has to ask for the first family's permission to open their mouth. 

The days of a strong Central leader ruling India is over. Any leader who can network well, take the aspirations of the State leaders in his stride is likely to do well - ideally someone like A B Vajpayee. 

It is also why Rahul Gandhi or even Narendra Modi (who is a loner) will find it difficult to be a great PM.

We are in for a long period of collective, disparage leadership to guide India.

And it might not be a bad thing after all.