Shifting of power

The politicians are scared of the Anna Hazare Movement.

It is not because they fear the proposed Lokpal will put an end to their corruption. With no reforms in the judiciary or police in the vicinity, and with our justice system and police totally impotent in getting conviction for the guilty in anything less than 20 years, the politicians need not have any fear of cooling their heels for a stretch of time.

If you dont believe me, just have a look at some of the high profile cases. A Raja is out on bail and his case has not even come to trial, and is not likely to for the next 3 years. Ditto for Kanimozhi. The Election malpractice case against P Chidambaram is not likely to be sorted out before the next elections. By the time P Chidambaram would have already taken many important decisions as Home Minister and as Finance Minister in the future, affecting our lives, when he has no right to do so. How about the Adrash housing society case or for that matter the open and shut case against Suresh Kalmadi, who virtually looted India as head of the Organizing Committee for the Commonwealth Games. And someone like Sheila Dikshit is not even being booked, and she is as guilty as Kalmadi. Has Lallu been convicted on the fodder scam or Rajiv Gandhi on Bofors? And less said about Sonia, Rahul, Robert Vadra, Sharad Pawar, Yeduyuriappa, Jayalalitha, Mayawathi, Mulayam et al the better.

As I said, the politicians are not worried about a fall in their 'real income' or about them being convicted.

But they are worried about the balance of power shifting to the people. The Right to Information Act has already caused much heartburn amongst the powers that be. RTI activists have really used it to bring many shady dealings to light, and the people feel more empowered. But possessing information of a misdeed or corruption is one thing, and getting people punished for it is another.

This is where Lokpal comes in. If it is really implemented, the power will shift dramatically to the people. The politicians over the years have formed a nice club, where the motto is 'you scratch my back and I will scratch yours'. Though some token cases are taken against political opponents, care is taken that the investigating agencies botch up the investigation to such an extend that, the only purpose of these cases is to use them as a weapon of blackmail against political opponents in times of need, and nothing more.

But a powerful Lokpal will change all that. The politician-crooked businessmen nexus will be broken and many reputations will take a beating. The aura created by the politicians as some one who is regal and above the poor man will be shattered, and once it is shattered, the fear and awe the common man will have for the politicians will be gone for ever, resulting in a powershift, which the politicians dont want to happen.

Hence their concerted effort to thwart the Anna moment.

Anbu Thollai!!

One of the things I miss in Gulf is the hospitality of the simple rural folk of India. Maybe because I have never been out of the Capital City of Muscat, I have not had a chance to experience the hospitality of the rural Omanis. But one thing I can say is that the hospitality of the fellow Indians in Gulf is miserable. Everything is artificial. One feels unwanted when one visits another apartment of a fellow Indian.

Years ago, when I was a Sales Officer in Coimbatore in early 1990s, I had a travelling job, overseeing the performance of Gas Stations (Petrol Pumps) in Coimbatore and the rural area surrounding it. The hospitality of Coimbatore people is legendary. They get offended if you dont drink the coffee offered, and they stuff you to the hilt if given a chance. Since I visit at least 5-7 Petrol pumps every day, and 4-5 Industrial customers, I had to drink innumerable number of coffees every day, spoiling my appettite. If I refuse the Coffee and the snacks, the dealer is hurt and takes it as a personal affront. When I confided this to a friend of mine, he gave me, what he thought, was a brilliant idea. He advised me to tell the dealers that I am under homeo treatment, and as such has to avoid Coffee and Tea. I put this into practice, without realising what this will lead to. All the dealers were pained to hear I was under treatment, but they just had to make me drink something. Coimbatore-Pollachi-Udumalpet belt is famous for Tender Coconuts. The speciality of the Pollachi tender coconut (which used to cost Rs 2 those days) was that they were HUGE. Each tender coconut containted at least 3 full glasses of tender coconut water. Imagine drinking 8-9 like this every day. I just couldnt refuse this offer as tender coconut is ideal for homeo patients!!!!. Since mine was a travelling job, I had to stop the car every 20 minutes to take a leak, like a dog will do!!! After 3 months of this 'anbu thollai' ( loosely translated 'nuisance love'), I suddenly announced that I was cured fully, and as such could now drink coffee and tea. But the loving dealers will have none of it!! They used to advise me to avoid coffee and tea, and stick to tender coconut, a much healthier drink. I still fondly remember the love and affection of the Coimbatore dealers who pumped me with tender coconut water 20 years ago!

Much earlier than this, when I was a young kid, I used to go with my father, who as in charge of rural electrification. And we did really to to some remote nook and corner of Palghat district. Late 1970s and early 80s, Pepsi and Coke were unheard of. Even Gold Spot, Thumps Up or Limca were available in District Head Quarters. The luxury drink in the rural areas was the 'Colour'. This was offered to only VVIPs, as it cost them 30 ps , as against a soda that cost 15 ps. This was nothing but aerated sweetnened colour water (Well!! this is what Coke and Pepsi is, isnt it?), filled in a 'goli soda bottle'. God only knows what were the ingredients of it. But you had to feel the love in the voice of the poor villager when he sends an errand boy to get 'Sir and his son Colour'!. And he and the other villagers would swell in pride when they see us drink it!!

Where has that life gone?

Changing World Structure and an unchanging India

The last two decades have seen the death of 'isms'.

Communism died with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the advent of perestroika in the USSR. The Capitalists rejoiced with the hope of creating a Global Capitalist Economy. Globalization, Privatization and Liberalization were rammed down the throat of the Developing Countries by the so called Developed Countries, who gloated at the prospect of controlling the global economy and living on the fruits of the cheap labour in the 3rd world countries. The Developed Capitalist Countries thought they had deep pockets, and their financial clout shall give them the controlling power over the rest of the world.

Lehman Brothers changed all that. The Sub-prime crisis and ensuing financial meltdown, showed the Capitalist Countries for what they are - countries full of hot air balloon, living on borrowed money and spending way beyond their means. All it requires to destroy a hot air balloon is one prick with a needle. The Lehman Brothers was the prick that destroyed the Capitalism for ever.

High Debt, negative Balance of Payments, rising unemployment, increase immigration, falling standards of living, no core competencies - these are the hallmarks of the Capitalist Countries now.

Greed and insensitiveness of the powers that be destroyed Communism. Greed and insensitiveness of the Bankers and politicians destroyed Capitalism.

The Developed Countries are going back to nationalism, protectionism. US has announced a series of initiatives to spur local entrepreneurship. France is looking inwards. As do many of the Eurozone countries. Even the GCC countries are going in for a purge of expat population by increasing local recruitment.

In this scenario, perhaps the only country that cares a fig for the nationals and their well being is India, under the current Government. We are still talking of FDI, FII, Nuclear Deal, opening up the Economy, killing local entrepreneurship through high interest rates and red tapism. Instead of chasing FDI, all the Government had to do is reduce the flight of capital. In 70s and 80s, we were worried about the flight of intellectual capital. Now, our industrialists are investing everywhere in the world, except India. And we dont do anything about it.

The foreign media yesterday called Manmohan Singh the poodle of Sonia Gandhi. At least the poodles do no harm and are adorable. The same cannot be said of MMS.

It is two weeks since MMS took over the Finance Ministry and asked us to liberate our animal spirit. Only problem is he didnt mention which animal. Perhaps guinnea pigs or white rats, who allow themselves to be used as experimental speciman by the rich scientists? In any case, MMS  hasnt shown any leadership during the two weeks he is at the helm of the Finance Ministry. Is it a clear indication that the mess is much bigger than it is? I guess so.

Globalization - Dealth Kneww

Globalization, as a concept, lasted barely 2 decades. It was an imperative for the strong Western Economies to cover up their weakness - rising wages and higher cost of production. Riding on the ability of their financial institutions misplaced ability to offer them unlimited credit, which was used by consumers and corporates for spending indiscriminately, pushing up the consumption and cost of goods/services, the West saw an opportunity in exploiting the cheap labour in 3rd World Countries as an alternative to get away from their high wages production scenario.

By pumping in FDI and FII, they thought they could control all the 3rd world countries through their financial might, forgetting that they were slowly getting into a debt trap themselves. The financial clout of the West was akin to a Ponzi scheme. It was bound to break down one day. And it did during the Global Financial melt down of 2008.

The West thought that their core competencies were in the areas of Finance and Intellectual superiority that led to them having a critical edge in the area of technological innovation, which they used to sell to the third world at a premium.

But the 3rd world, and mainly the emerging economies, were street smart. They invested in technical education and with slick marketing shifted the focus away from long lasting technoligally superior products to short shelf life, functional products which did not require high technology R&D.  The positive balance of payments obtained through export earnings, and the shifting of the focus from high tech, ensured the West losing its edge in one stroke. And with their own unlimited credit availability at risk, due to the poor health of their financial system, the West has no place to hide.

So what is the future? West will continue to crumble as their foundations are weak. Will it mean the 3rd World countries will replace them. It is unlikely, as the consumption levels of 3rd world is very poor. There is a real fear that the 3rd world producing countries might end up with higher inventory due to poor offtake, damaging their economies.

What is required is some visionary to take the lead to improve consumption. India was ideally placed for that role. Unfortunately, typical of us, we have missed the bus, as in the past.

Blistering Heat

We have had a blistering summer in Muscat. The high humidity adds to the discomfort.

Even the pigeons are affected, as the picture taken by me today shows. The black pigeon patiently waits his turn, while his friend has a sip from a swimming pool

Wanted - Non performers, with ability to swindle to head important posts with the Government of India

I know I have been quiet on this blog for a while.

When the Government lurches from one crisis to another or from one colossal stupidity to another then words fail, because of the futility of it all.

We have a tragic situation today. But for the fact that it takes India to abysmal depths, not seen even during the worst days of 1990's, one can even laugh at the absurdity of what is unfolding in front of us.

We have a Planning Commission, that has planned for 60 years and ensured that 60% of India's population still defecates in the open (forget about the health hazards, just imagine the indignity of having to defecate in the open - but who cares), spends RS 35 lakhs for 2 toilets in its headquarters. Even taking in the argument that these toilets shall have 20 seats in total, it still works out to a whopping Rs 1.75 lakhs per seat!!!. And this at a time, when the nation has been asked to tighten its belt. Instead of pulling the Dy Chairman up, our Cabinet found time to joke about it, with a Cabinet Minister requesting Montek to allow him to use the toilet, and Montek, with a smirk, telling him that he has to wait, as there is a big queue!!. And everyone having a good laugh over it.

"What did the Prime Minister say when the news about Planning Commission Toilet Scandal reached him?"

"Oh! Shit"

That is the same response of Indians these days when they hear their Ministers open their mouth.

There is a saying that 'No news is good news'. These days Indians wake up with a prayer that no Minister opens his mouth about a policy issue, for it is sure to hit the common man below the belt - whether it is Petrol prices, diesel prices, airline, railways, inflation, rupee devaluation etc etc......

We have a PM who has been a spectacular failure on all fronts.............And everyone wants him to be shifted to the Rashtrapathi Bhavan.

We have a FM who has taken the economy to depths..............He wants to become the President.

We have a Defence Minister who ensured our Army is unprepared and under whose watch a honest Army Chief was harassed to no end. The less said about the loot in defence procurement, the better.............and the powers that be in Congress wants him to be the President.

We have a Speaker, who travelled to 42 countries since 2009..........why a Lok Sabha Speaker should travel to 42 countries is beyond me............and she wont mind being the President.

We have a undercooked, juveline, low IQ, escapist idiot who lead Congress to spectacular defeats in Bihar, UP and all the elections it fought under him..............and Congress wants him to be the PM

We have a Home Minister, who blatantly rigged the polls last time around, and used his legal skills to ensure the case didnt come up for trial for the past 3 years (and thus seeing to it that it wont affect his tenure as HM). An added qualification is that he facilitated lakhs and lakhs of crores of loot through 2G Scam, Maxis Deal and what not.....................and he just wont resign and go owning moral authority.

We have a Railway Minister who is not even bothered to attend Cabinet Meetings............and our nincompoop of a PM cant even make him attend one.............and Rail accidents after rail accidents happen.

We have a Planning Commission Dy Chairman who feels it is alright for a family to earn Rs 28-32 per day and he is no longer poor............. and our PM wants him to be the FM

We have Rangarajan, Chairman of PMs Economic Advisory Council, who shamelessly tells the media, at the height of protests about Petrol hike, that Government should increase Diesel and LPG prices too...........and the PM is pushing for him to be the next FM, in case he cant get Montek through.....

And above all, there is the Super PM, who is not accountable to anyone, but who enjoys so much clout that even the Monarch despots in some of the oil rich countries pale in comparison to the powers she has..........and she uses the powers, not for common good, but to ensure she moves up from being the 4th richest politician to the first..............and she doesnt even earn a salary other than the MP salary!!!

And the person who is supposed to be the guardian of our constitution........the President...........is a disgrace..................she is busy travelling to all the exotic places in the world like Mauritius, Seychelles............at taxpayers expense, without any remorse, on the guise that these trips will improve bilateral relationship and bring aid to our country....................it is fine as long as it doesnt bring AIDS to the country!!

The Great Indian Tragedy

Two decades of Economic Reforms has helped discount at least one theory. It was always claimed by the proponents of Economic Reforms (they do even now!!) that liberalization and globalization would result in higher GDP Growth and the benefits would 'trickle down' to the common man. While the first part has come true, the second part has proved to be a mirage chased by the common man. His life has become more miserable as the higher GDP growth has brought with it higher inflation, while his plight has remained the same. Added to this, our country's fate has become so interwined with those of the decaying western economies, that a default by Greece leads to stock market crash and rupee devaluation in India. We hardly have any trade with Greece, and there is no reason why our economy should react to Greece defaulting, for being financially indisciplined.

The problem is that we have failed spectacularly to develop any core competency during the two decades of reforms, unlike China, which has focussed on low cost manufacturing ability, and has forced the high wage western companies to shift the manufacturing base to China. We can point fingers at the intolerent communist regime, but one needs to admit that China has indeed leveraged its strength.

India had the opportunity to be the IT focal point of the world and also a great financial hub. But we were content to be mediocre. Despite the earnings of the IT sector, one has to admit that our IT sector hardly created anything worthwhile, and they were none better than Chinese, using Blue Collar Engineers to produce programs based on low grade specs. No great IT discoveries were made in India. And the less said about developing ourselves as a Financial/Services hub the better.

The saddest part is that, despite evidence to the contrary, and with the economy in doldrums, we are still talking only about opening up the insurance, retail etc rather than on creating long term assets. In short, we are replaying the tape of the 1990s, that is a proven failure.

There is no informed debate about how to build the nation, either by the UPA or by the NDA, or by any of the Regional parties. The politics of corruption, mud slinging and one upmanship has ensured that we have missed the bus to take global leadership once again.

What a tragedy!!!