Rain check on Crystal Ball Gazing 2008

On 2nd January 2008, I had a post titled 'Crystal Ball Gazing 2008'. There, I had made some predictions for 2008. You can read the post here http://rajanvenkateswaran.blogspot.com/2008/01/crystal-ball-gazing-2008.html

Unlike others, I went back to my predictions and did a review. Of course, even I couldnt predict the Global financial meltdown or the Mumbai carnage. But still, it is worthwhile to take a rain check. The original post is in italics, with my comments at the end of the year in brackets.


Beginning of an year is ideal for crystal ball gazing. Let me make some predictions.

The political comatose situation in the Centre is likely to continue. Though the Gujarat results have ensured that the chances of a General Election in 2008 is almost zero. Congress party will try to retain power by making any compromise ( of course they did precisely this by teaming up with Mulayam and Amar Singh, allowing all coalition partners do whatever (looting) they want to do in their ministries)

and the CPI(M) who can pull down the Government is wary of doing so in view of the shaky ground they find themselves in currently in West Bengal and Kerala, only place where they have a presence. (I misread CPM. They did try to pull down the government but ended up with mud in their faces)

Other coalition partners are totally against a General Election. Congress will hope against hope to perform better in the Assembly elections due in BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh and Rajastan to give them some momentum leading to General Election in early 2009.(they did well in Rajastan and we didnt see the General Election in 2008)

Dr.Manmohan Singh is a good man. But good men don't make great leaders. I would any day prefer a scoundrel who is a good leader and administrator to a spineless good man. He should have quit long ago if he had any decency left rather than allowing himself to be ridiculed by his party and every other coalition partners. I don't think even the cleaning staff in his office shows any respect for him. (They still dont)

All the while, the power behind the throne, Sonia Gandhi, hides behind a barricade refusing to give press or TV interviews but wielding enormous Authority without any Accountability. (She still is not accountable)

BJP is in disarray and despite the victory in Gujarat and HP, they have failed totally as a responsible opposition party.(they have not been great shakes as an opposition party, while credit must be given to them for extending support to the Government on terror laws. But BJP under Advani has been an unmitigated disaster)

We might however see a realignment of forces leading to the General election at local and national levels.(We did see SP joining UPA, and CPM tying up with AIADMK. But since elections are still a few months away, there was no sense of urgency for realignment). The strength and number of alliance partners will decide who will rule India for the next five years. Not a pleasant scenario politically. Cry my beloved country!

Economically, this is not going to be great.(it was not great and how) With the government refusing to take hard steps, the drift that started a year back is likely to continue. (the drift did continue accentuated by the global crisis) .With the world poised for a recession, the impact will be felt on Indian economy.(It did. And the world is into serious recessionary mode). We may not get the high 9% GDP Growth rate. Appreciating rupee (I was wrong here. Rupee depreciated drastically), near stagnant growth in Agriculture (correct here), drop in Industrial production (right here), continued subsidies (farm loan waiver and more coverage for NREG) and downtrend in exports (right here too) will ensure that we end up with a 7% Growth.(luck to get just that. but I was spot on). With inflation likely to be in the range of 5-6% (Even I was shocked at the inflation reachig 12%, but then I am not in a minority here, but by the end of the year it is back to 6%, but I admit being wrong here) , the Real GDP growth rate is likely to be 1-2% which is worrisome. We can expect more social sector spending, more sops and in all likelihood another Pay Commission award to government employees.(Was spot on in all these. Pay commission has been announced). The last will fuel inflation. (it did) .As will high energy prices. (ditto). Government has been refusing to take hard decisions on the pricing of the petroleum products, but this cant be put off forever. Higher fuel prices is will increase inflationary pressures. Rupee is expected to maintain its position and is likely to be in the bandwidth of Rs 38 - 41 during the year.(Wrong here). Real Estate prices will remain stagnant and stock markets might stabilize at 18000-21000 as all the above factors will make investors cautious.(right on first, wrong on second. but who foresaw the subprime triggered crisis) Gold will rule roost (it does) and may even appreciate by 10% (it did) mainly as a result of weak dollar. Good time to invest in yellow metal.(you should have listened to my advice and would have made money in a slumping financial market if you had invested in gold). Decisions of SEZs likely to be put off (we dont even hear about SEZ these days) but there could be some spurt in infrastructure projects so that the Government can show some visible progress.

Internal security will continue to be a cause for worry as the Government has virtually slept through the past 4 years hardly putting any concrete systems in place to counter terrorism. Borders will continue to be sensitive with Pakistan on a transition phase, Bangladesh unstable, Nepal shaky, China a nuisance and Srilanka on a razor edge. Again as a nation, we are paying the price for being meek with our neighbours. With certain type of people, only might talks not diplomacy.(You dont have to be a genius not to see this. All you need to be is not be Shivraj Patil, because everyone other than this idiot and his masters were aware Mumbai was waiting to happen)

Energy front will continue to suffer from the lack of foresight of the successive governments. Nuclear deal is all but dead, with both Indian and US governments more than happy to pass on the buck to the next governments(I misread Dr.Manmohan Singh totally on this. Never thought the hold US had over him was so strong that he laid everything on line to get this cleared). We are not likely to meet the targets for Power generation capacity enhancement in 2008(We didnt). This will adversely affect our growth in the long run. We need energy security and the crying need of the hour is some out of the box thinking.(It still needs out of the box thinking)

Not much success can be expected on the sports front. 2008 is an Olympics year. The drama of a large contingent going to Beijing and returning empty handed is likely to be repeated. ( I reckoned without Abhinav Bindra. My apologies.Miracles do happen). Cricket team does not evoke much confident(this is one big error of judgement. the cricket team has been superb) and we will have to be happy with an occasional victory for Sania Mirza (I got even that wrong), who is never going to crack the top 10. Only saving grace could be the Chess Players and it is time someone recognized Vishy Anand and gave him a Bharat Ratna.(Vishy vindicated my faith in him by winning the World Title by beating Kramnik). The guy is the most underrated sportsperson in India and the only one who has brought laurels to the country consistently.

Environmental degradation, crowded cities, breaking down of civic infrastructure, continued poverty of the rural people, more industries, burgeoning middle class, growing consumption economy, status quo in eduction - all these are likely to continue.(It does continue)

It is a small miracle how we progress inspite of the system, but we do.

Mera Bharat Mahan!


Not bad eh!. I got many right. Maybe I should change my job. But then I dont want to.

Getting away with murder (literally)

Looks like nothing much has changed in Indian Corporate circles. During the 1980's, Public limited companies were run like personal fiefdoms by owners who barely owned 5-7% of the stock. They use to manufacture a majority through leveraging Government institutional shareholders like UTI, LIC etc. The classic case of Swaraj Paul trying to take over Escorts from the Nandas comes to mind. Nanda's saved the day by using their political clout with the then Congress government, who instructed the Institutional investors to side with him, much to the chagrin of many small share holders and Swaraj Paul.

More than quarter of a century later, we have the Satyam computers saga.The Chairman Ramalingam Raju tried to invest almost all the cash reserves of the company in his son's Real estate business, Matyas- which is Satyam spelt backwards. in violation of the AOA of the company and the purpose for which the Company was established in the first place. Issues like conflict of interest, Corporate ethics, transparency were thrown to the wind.

The irony is that recently Satyam management had bagged the Golden Peacock Global Award for excellence in corporate governance. Even more ironical is the presence of the so called independent directors on Satyam’s board. Two of them are from leading B-schools, and one purportedly a Corporate Governance specialist.The amount involved in the transaction was $ 1.6 billion and even the major shareholders were kept in the dark. The transaction going ahead would have meant shareholders money going into the hands of the Raju family. This is not acceptable under any circumstances.

The so called 'Independant' Directors are actually the cronies of Satyam Chairman. That one is the Dean of Indian School of Business, and actually chaired the meeting of the Board that cleared the transaction and the other who is a Harvard Professor (sic) but a long time advisor of Raju, makes the whole concept of independance of these directors (who are supposed to give impartial advice) questionable. Ironically, Dr.Palepu, the Harvard guys research work and writings have been on making 'Corporate Governance more effective' (sic). So much for hypocracy.

Already the current generation of students scoff at business ethics. But if instances like the above are allowed to go unpunished, then we will witness a chaotic, unscrupulous scenario in the corporate world.

Though it is unfair to compare our Corporate world with the underworld. But the ethics and code of conduct in the underworld is much more stringent. Admitted, they do despicable business, but they honour integrity, honesty, no breach of promises and verbal agreements. If they break the code of conduct, then the retribution in the underworld is swift. They will 'bore' you to death. Only thing is that the 'boring' will be done using a .32 calibre bullet.

Maybe something like this needs to be practiced in the Corporate world. Our educated economic thugs are getting away with murder (literally)

Diamonds are forever

Today's consumer is knowledgable. At least he has a working knowledge of the product he wants to buy. If he doesn't have, then the information he needs is only a click away.

Spending 15 minutes on net can make a whale of a difference in buying even an expensive item like diamonds.

Ever thought of buying a diamond, but having no clue as to how to go about?

Do you know what to look for while buying diamonds?

Like the 4 P's and 4 C's in Marketing, Diamonds also go by the 4 C concept.

Cut
Clarity
Color
Carat weight


These are the criteria jewelers use when grading diamonds, and they're the ones you'll need to understand to buy the right diamond for you.

And then there's the "Fifth C":

Certificates

First Cut. Dont confuse Cut with Shape. Cut denotes the reflecting ability of the Diamond. Diamond cut is perhaps the most important of the four Cs, so it is important to understand how this quality affects the properties and values of a diamond. A good cut gives a diamond its brilliance, which is that brightness that seems to come from the very heart of a diamond. The angles and finish of any diamond are what determine its ability to handle light, which leads to brilliance.

When a diamond is well-cut, light enters through the table and travels to the pavilion where it reflects from one side to the other before reflecting back out of the diamond through the table and to the observer's eye. This light is the brilliance we mentioned, and it's this flashing, fiery effect that makes diamonds so mesmerizing.

Because cut is so important, several grading methods have been developed to help consumers determine the cut of a particular diamond. In general, these grades are:

Ideal
Premium
Very Good
Good
Fair & Poor

The first two are very expensive. For your purpose even a Very Good cut is more than adequate. Please check on the certificate the type of cut. Ask the jeweller where the diamonds were cut. The best cuts are done in Antwerp, Belgium. Sometimes it is written in the certificate as Round Brilliant Cut. Round denotes the shape and Brilliant Cut is between Very Good and Premium. This means the diamond will sparkle.

Second is Clarity. This indicates the presence of identifying characteristics on (blemishes) and within (inclusions) the stone. Most diamonds have flaws.

Diamonds are graded for clarity under 10x loupe magnification. Grades range from Flawless (diamonds which are completely free of blemishes and inclusions), to Included 3 (diamonds which possess large, heavy blemishes and inclusions that are visible to the naked eye).

F - Flawless: No internal or external flaws. Extremely rare.
IF- Internally Flawless: no internal flaws, but some surface flaws. Very rare.
VVS1-VVS2 - Very Very Slightly Included (two grades). Minute inclusions very difficult to detect under 10x magnification by a trained gemologist.
VS1-VS2 - Very Slightly Included (two grades). Minute inclusions seen only with difficulty under 10x magnification.
SI1-SI2 - Slightly Included (two grades). Minute inclusions more easily detected under 10x magnification.
I1-I2-I3- Included (three grades). Inclusions visible under 10x magnification AS WELL AS to the human eye. We do not recommend buying diamonds in any of these grades.
Though it is ideal to have F or IF, for domestic purchases VVS or VS is good value for money and you wont know the difference. Anything less than that is 'iffy'. So check the certificate for Clarity. (By the way, every diamond comes with a certificate mentioning all these details).

Next in the line is Diamond Colour. This refers to the presence or absence of color in white diamonds. Color is a result of the composition of the diamond, and it never changes over time. Because a colorless diamond, like a clear window, allows more light to pass through it than a colored diamond, colorless diamonds emit more sparkle and fire. The formation process of a diamond ensures that only a few, rare diamonds are truly colorless. Thus the whiter a diamond's color, the greater its value. (In olden days, I have heard Tamil Mami's croon over Blue Jagger diamonds. It is actually a 'D' coloured diamond that emits blue fluroscence. Since it is a 'D' obviously, it is of top quality. So, they never knew the theory behind this, the fact that the Mamis cherished Blue Jager shows an eye of a discerning customer)

To grade 'whiteness' or colorlessness, most jewelers refer to GIA's professional color scale that begins with the highest rating of D for colorless, and travels down the alphabet to grade stones with traces of very faint or light yellowish or brownish color. The color scale continues all the way to Z.

D E F - Colourless
G H I - Near Colourless
K L M - Faint Yellow
N O P Q R - Very light yellow
S T U V W X - Light YellowSo what should you go for. No doubt, D E or F. Even a good EF is a great treat for the eye.

Fourth is the Carat. A carat is the unit used to weigh a diamond. One carat is equal to 200 milligrams, or 0.2 grams. Deciding on carat size is really about striking a balance between size and quality. Normally more the carat, more valuable the diamond.


Lastly, Certificates. Every diamond comes with a certificate. A certificate is a "blueprint" of a diamond, it tells you the diamond's exact measurements and weight, as well as the details of its cut and quality. It precisely points out all the individual characteristics of the stone. Certificates also serve as proof of the diamond's identity and value. A typical certificate can be as follows,

Shape and Cut - Round Brilliant Cut
Weight - 1.4 carat
Clarity - VVS
Color - EF

From the above you can tell that this is a very very good diamond. Not the top draw, but almost up there and great value for money. See it sparkle on your beloved.


There is nothing like a Diamond to show your love.

'Diamonds are Forever'
-information on diamonds courtesy http://www.thediamondbuyingguide.com

Foot in the mouth disease of Ghulam Nabi Azad

I am anti-Congress. But am not pro-BJP. But of course I am against all pseudo secularist parties.

Secularism is generally the assertion that governmental practices or institutions should exist separately from religion or religious beliefs. Alternatively, it is a principle of promoting secular ideas or values in either public or private settings over religious ways of thought.In one sense, secularism may assert the right to be free from religious rule and teachings, and freedom from the government imposition of religion upon the people, within a state that is neutral on matters of belief, and gives no state privileges or subsidies to religions. - wikipedia

In my opinion, secularism should mean the freedom for the individual to practice the religion he chooses and for all religion to be treated on par in all aspects.

But in India, most parties - most notably the Congress, have abused the word to such an extend that it has lost its sanctity. When a blatantly communal party like Muslim League in Kerala or the PDP in J&K talk about being secular, then there is something wrong with our national psyche.

What triggered this thought process is the most ridiculous statement from Ghulam Nabi Azad, the J&K outgoing Chief Minister on the election results coming out of J&K. It is a fractured verdict and BJP has made inroads into Congress bastions in Jammu by taking leads in 12 seats and Congress has lost its ability to be the king maker. Instead of accepting the peoples verdict as a vote against his rule, Azad has the gall to tell the following as per Indian Express,

Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief minister Gulam Nabi Azad on Sunday said the "rise" of BJP in the state was a worrying sign.(pray. why is it worrying? BJP is a national party and has been in existence for a long time. how come are you saying, it is 'rising'?)

"It does worry me. These trends are the outcome of unfortunate things happened in July and August. (A reference to the Amarnath yathra. The government goofed up big time not to stand by its decisions to provide land for pilgrim who brave inclement weather to build 'temporary' shelters. they bowed to the fanatics who created an issue out of nothing. did Azad expect any self respecting Jammu to vote for him after his deplorable stand?) The question is that secularism is getting shrunk at the cost of development," Azad said, adding that it should be "a worry for each and every Indian." (Let Azad worry about himself and his party. Indians know what they want. And pray what is secularism in your words Azad? Sharing power with a blatantly communal party like PDP who has no principles whatsoever, who stands for separatism and who has suppressed hindus in the State - is this what secularism is all about?)

"The rise of BJP in the border state which is facing terrorism is a worrying factor for the entire country," he said. ( Again invoking the country. Any he is worried about the rise of BJP but not about the fact that the Border state is having terrorism, which should be of more concern to the country. And who are behind these terrorists? Not BJP or Hindus)

"Their only vision is to create communal tension among the people," Azad said. "They are being rejected across the country because of their communalism." (Azad must be getting senile for him to claim that BJP is getting rejected across the country. Last heard they and NDA were in power in more than 12 states. That, in my opinion, is not rejection. It is his party, which has brought disgrace to the nation by tolerating an errant cabinet minister like AR Antulay, just because he is is a muslim, that is facing rejection)

Congress as a party is pits. They have no moral scruples.They can tell anything they like as a party. But idiots like Azad should not be allowed to speak on behalf of Indians. We know better.

Surround yourself with good men

Once upon a time, there was a king who kept a monkey as a pet. The monkey servedthe king in whatever way he could. He had a free run of the royal household because he was the king’s pet. One hot day the monkey sat fanning by the side of the king who was sleeping. He noticed a fly on the chest of the king and tried to swish it away. The fly would go away for the moment and come back again to sit on the king's chest.


The monkey could take it no longer and decided to teach the fly a lesson. He looked for a dagger to kill it and when he found it brought it down with all force on the fly. The fly flew away but the king died as result of the dagger blow delivered by the monkey.


The moral of the story is that a king who cares for his life should not have a fool as his servant. - Panchatantra


This is quite true of any organization. We have seen top management, well even lower level managers, surround themselves with chamchas who are quite incapable of doing anything other than what we call 'apple polishing'.

Most of these managers have ended up in grief, much like the King in the above story, at least metaphorically.

So beware of this trap. When you are a manager, recruit not yes men, but top quality people who have a mind of their own and are not afraid to tell you on your face that you are wrong.

Indo Pak stand off

Many of my readers have asked me what my take on the current Indo-Pak stand off is. Will there be a war after all?

The likelihood of war, however limited, is nil. The current posturing suits both the countries.

Pakistan needs to whip up the anti-India feelings and military build up to keep US in check. US has been extremely unhappy with Pakistan running with the hare and hunting with the hound. They have been supporting Taliban tacitly while claiming to fight a war on terror with the US. The unholy nexus of Taliban, ISI, Pak Government is a known fact. The US had started asking unpleasant questions and had in fact conducted raids inside Pakistan much to the chagrin of the Pak Army. So a purported tension in the Indo Pak border suits Pakistan to a T.

What about India? India playeds its cards badly post 26/11. The government appeared weak. It was reduced to bleating that Pakistan was behind all the attacks and the world should do the dirty job of reigning in Pakistan which India was loathe to do. It even went to the extend of providing evidence and seeking the support of Saudi Arabia, US and China- 3 countries that tacitly props up the Pakistan. Having made a fool of itself on the dometic and international fronts and having handled the Antulay issue in a dismal manner, the Government suddenly realized that there is a general election round the corner. What better way than to make people forget about the poor handling of economy and not doing any developmental work over five years. Raise the war hysteria, hoping against hope that people will forget the past and focus on the present assumed crisis.

We should have taken out the terrorist camps in Pakistan within 5 days of the Mumbai Attack. Having not had the guts to do so, the current war mongering is a classic cover up operation.

You can fool some people all the time, all the people some time, but you cant fool all the people all the time

No blogging and Merry Christmas to all

Have a few stitches in the mouth, post some dental work. Quite painful. So no blogging for today.

Wishing all the readers a Very Merry Christmas!