Of this and that...................

Queried whether lack of leadership was behind poor performance of Congress in UP, Sonia Gandhi responded, "I would say rather than lack of leadership, (there are) too many leaders... That is our problem." - Too many leaders???? And that too only in UP? I think it was a slip of the tongue. What she meant was 'there were too many 'Bleeders', who bled Congress to death - Rahul Gandhi, Digvijay Singh, Rita Bahuguna Joshi, Salman Khushid and so on

Asked about the reasons that could have impacted the party's performance, she said in UP, weak organizational structure and wrong choice of candidates could have been the factors - And pray who has been in charge of heading the Youth Congress and responsible for UP for the past few years, especially ticket distribution? Her own dumb witted son. Anyway, where is the bloody Organization for Congress in UP, or for that matter anywhere in the Country?

Asked whether corruption was an issue in the elections, she claimed that the Congress was the only party fighting against corruption.  "We passed the Lokpal bill in Lok Sabha...But who blocked it in the Rajya Sabha?" she asked.- She could do well to refresh the Rajya Sabha proceedings of the last day of the previous session. It was her own party that decided to prolong till the clock struck mid night and hastily withdrew the bill.

Rita Bahuguna Joshi, the UPCC Chief, who was in the forefront in masterminding the spectacular defeat of Congress in UP, should have been given the boot. But hey presto! Her family is rewarded through the air dropping of her brother Vijay Bahuguna in Uttarakhand to become the CM. So much for accountability

We used to comment in a light vein that a particular bad actor should be given an award, so that he wont take up acting again. Similarly I sincerely wish Sachin Tendulkar will get his 100th International Century, so that the guy will decide to hang up his boots once for all. There is a saying that one should retire when people ask 'Why' and not 'Why not?'. In Tendulkar's case it has gone even beyond that. It is more like "Why the HELL is he STILL NOT GONE?"

Tragedy of lost opportunity

Successful people create opportunities. At least they grab opportunities without fail. What they dont do is indulge in passive inertia, hoping that things will fall in place somehow.

So do successful nations.

The corollary is true. If you dont exploit the opportunities at the opportune moment, you will most certainly be left behind.

The last sentence, in a nut shell, epitomises the tragedy of India.

We had a great opportunity to become one of the leading global economies in early 1970's. The public spending was at an all time high, the post independence generation was about to enter the job market and they were a breed apart- intelligent, educated and not tied down by the diffidence of having studied under the British. But an insecure and autocratic Indira Gandhi set us back by a good 30 yeares through her so called socialistic corrupt regime, that benefitted none but she and her cronies.

Rajiv Gandhi, first, and PV Narasimha Rao, later out of compulsion, changed the track of Indian economy and Vajpayee built on it beautifully. 1995-2004 was the period when India came to be recognised as an emerging global economy. The GDP was growing at 8% and the next generation of brash, confident, arrogant young generation with no inferiority complexx whatsoever was ready to take the world on.

But, to their disgust, the two successive Sonia-Manmohan Singh misgovernance put paid to the asprations of India ever becoming a force to reckon with in the world arena.

The financial melt down of 2008 globally, from which India was isolated (by accident and not by design), should have been the cue to storm the world economy and rewrite the rules, as the Chinese did.

But policy paralysis, pusillanimity, lack of strategic vision, absence of political leadership meant India being ruled by the status quo comfortable bureaucracy who ensured we remained were we were, and even tried to push us back to 1980s.

We have missed the bus for now, and the negative impact of the lost decade will be felt throughout this century.

What a tragedy!!!!

Rise of the Local Chieftains

Prior to Independence, India was a collection of Kingdoms and States, administered separately, and having their own Kings, Ministers, or Administrative heads. In a way, the British unified India, though the real credit for bringing together all the States goes to Sardar Vallabhai Patel, who using a mixture of Sama Dana Bheda Dhandam tactics, managed to cajole, threaten everyone to create a larger India.

Thus we can safely assume that the Federal character of India was in existence even a century ago, and is nothing new. The British, first tried to gather all the power at the Centre, which was duplicated by Jawaharlal Nehru during his decade and a half tenure as PM. To be fair to Nehru, he was not an Authoritarian, but a liberal, who allowed the local State leaders to flourish. We had some real towering leaders at the State level like Panth, Chavan, EMS, Kamaraj, Nijalingappa to name a few. A highly insecure Indira Gandhi, who had strong autocratic inclinations, concentrated the power in the Centre, and the concept of all powerful Central Government, dwarfing over State Governments took roots during her tenure. But since her death, the power of the Centre started diminishing rapidly and has eroded to such an extend during the past decade, that no one takes Central Government and its leadership seriously any more. 

During this period, we have seen the National Parties like Congress and BJP, being marginalized, and not even a force in any of the major States. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian Parties - AIADMK and DMK hold sway, in Karnataka, though BJP is in power, it is more due to the power held by lingayats headed by Yeduriyappa, the Congress is all but broken in AP, with TRS and Jagans regional outfit expect to decimate it in the next elections. This not taking into account TDP ruling for nearly two decades, before their ouster. Shiv Sena is a power to reckon with in Maharashtra,  Akali Dal in Punjab, Mamata in West Bengal, Navin Patnaik in Orissa, Nitish in Bihar, and NC/PDP in Kashmir. BSP/SP in UP has muscled out both the national parties. Only major states where the Congress and BJP hold fort are Rajasthan and MP. 

Thus, in a way, we are back to the era of powerless Centre and powerful local chieftains. And situation is likely to remain like this. The two party dominant political arena is a thing of the past, and remains more in the thoughts of political commentators, who are fed by Congress Party, than anyone else.

There are indications that the powerful State Chieftains will create a ginger group to exert pressure on the Centre to have their own way in the future. We have already seen the FDI in retail being scrapped and the Counter Terrorism Bill on hold.

The changes in the Economy post reforms has got something to do with the demise of the strong Centre concept. With Government ceasing to be the main driver of the economy (the economy is on autopilot and self-functioning), people no longer look upto Central Government, as its decision has relatively less impact on the aam admi. What they need is solutions to their day to day problems, which they feel can be done only by a party who is local and apparently sensitive to their needs.

In such a scenario, it is amusing to see Congress (BJP is better in this regard, as they have many strong local leaders like Modi, Chauhan, Uma Bharathi, Yeduriappa, Vasundhare Raja Scindia etc) going back to the victorian era of imperialistic dynasty based politics, where even a senior State Leader like Kamat of Goa, or Oomen Chandy of Kerala, or Gehlot of Rajastan has to ask for the first family's permission to open their mouth. 

The days of a strong Central leader ruling India is over. Any leader who can network well, take the aspirations of the State leaders in his stride is likely to do well - ideally someone like A B Vajpayee. 

It is also why Rahul Gandhi or even Narendra Modi (who is a loner) will find it difficult to be a great PM.

We are in for a long period of collective, disparage leadership to guide India.

And it might not be a bad thing after all.

The long overdue Reforms to better the lives of Traffic Policement is here!

Fag end of my birthday, when I was relaxing with a book on my hand, I felt someones presence. Looking up I saw my friend Budhi Rakshasan (BR), in a pensive mood.

"Swamy. Apologize for wishing you so late on your B'Day."

I gestured, saying it was inconsequential and asked "BR, what is new in the corridors of power, which you frequent?"

"The much awaited Police Reforms are here"

"Eh?" , for I had not read anything about Police Reforms for a long time.

"Swamy, there was always a clamour for increasing the living standards of our Police Force, especially those of the Constables and Traffic Policemen"

"So what has happened now that makes their life better, BR?"

"Swamy, you must have missed the news of Cabinet approving 10 fold hikes in Traffic Fines. You should not stop reading, even if it is your birthday that comes once in four years", he admonished me.

"BR. I am fully aware of that. So do you mean to say the hike in Traffic fines, would reduce the traffic offence and make the life of our Policement easier?"

"Swamy, you are not at your best today", he was literally mocking me - very annoying.

"Then?", I played dumb, for then BR will be at his sanctimonious best

"Swamy, our policemen are happy when there is an increase in traffic offence, not a decrease. You, being abroad, is out of touch with ground realities"

"Umm................................"

"Till now, a common man had to pay only Rs 50 or Rs 100 to a traffic cop as bribe, if he want to be not charged. And the 'poor' traffic policeman was earning only Rs 10,000 to Rs 15,000 per month from these bribes."

"But the increase in traffic fines, Rs 500 for first offence for talking on mobile ( Rs 5,000 for second offence), Not wearing Seat Belts (which Indian car has a seat belt?) or helmets or jumping red lights means you have to pay a fine of Rs 500 - Rs 1500, or Jail Term or Rs 5,000 for drunken driving, should only prove to be a deterrent, reducing the offences" , I argued

"Tut tut. Nothing of those sorts will happen. People will still violate the law merrily, as we are a non-law abiding country. All the new law will mean is that instead of having a pay a Traffic cop, Rs 50- 100, a common man has to fork out Rs 500 - 100"

"Ummm.................."

"But would not the people rather pay the fine than bribe the cops?"

"Swamy, you have never been involved in a case where you are fined legally for a traffic offence. You will have to go to the court, and the case will be adjourned 3 times, and by the time you pay the fine legally, you would have wasted 3 working days, and at least would have had to spend thrice the amount of fine to just pay the fine. It is to get out of the legal hassles that people pay bribe"

"I see.................."

"It is why I said, the Traffic Cops are jumping with joy, as from now on they shall be earning nothing less than Rs 50,000- 60,000 per month as bribe, instead of Rs 10,000 - 15,000"

"But the effect of the new fines on traffic offence"

"None"

Poof! and BR was gone.

Leap Year Birthday is here again

Another 29th February is here!

After a Gap of 4 years!

Another long awaited Birthday for me. Not that one wants to count the years when he is on the wrong side of 40s.

Last Birthday, I blogged that I would like to sign of as Dr.Rajan Venkateswaran on my next birthday. It hasn't happened. There was a momentum created by getting the M Phil degree in 2008, for me to complete my Ph.D. But many unforeseen events led to my not fulfilling my dream during the intervening years. Maybe, just maybe, the dream of a Doctorate is over forever.

Since the last birthday, I went through the whole cycle of boom-bust-boom. From the highs of a high level job in 2008-2009, to an year of absolute depth in 2010, to the struggle of setting up a new Consultancy company in an alien land in 2011, to the stable growth in 2012, life has indeed come a full circle.

The intervening period saw me move from the desert terrain of Kuwait City to the lush green Muscat City. No regrets there. That move was the most sensible decision I took in my life, though I had to endure a struggle to make my company up and running during its first year. That we ended in a profit at the end of the year, is no mean achievement.

On the positive side, I have mellowed a lot, which is a welcome sign. There is a maturity in the way I handle things, that was absent before. I am more patient and less intolerent. Have quietly slipped in nicely to the Top Management role and it sits easily on me, as I dont feel the stress. A real health scare in 2010 beginning forced me to have a relook at my health, and it culminated in my restarting my Tennis, a game I just love. My game has improved by leaps and bounds, and so has my health. No mean achievement at this age. And I set up a Consultancy Company single handedly and saw it grow into a profitable venture. Again a significant achievement.

On the flip side, I have put an end to my teaching stint, which I regret a lot, though I have got used to it by now. Better to stop when people ask Why, rather than Why Not!! In a way, it was the right time to stop teaching and like many other things in my life, I dont look back with regret once I have taken a decision. The non completion of Ph D is a huge disappointment, and the lost opportunity is one I might regret for the rest of my life. And I am yet to meet another person born on a leap year day!!!

Surprisingly, this Birthday, I haven't made any plans for the next 4 years, nor have I set any personal goals.  I want to take life as it comes. The last 4 years of wildly fluctuating fortunes has made me more philosophical. I can take failure and success with the same equanimity. There were times during the past 4 years when I felt God was just not being fair, and not giving me a break. But then I found out that every single thing that happened in life has a meaning, and leads to something else, like the links of a chain.

Ethu Nadanthatho Athu Nandragave Nadanthathu, Ethu Nadakkiratho Athu Nadragave Nadakkirathu, Ethu Nadakkavirukkiratho Athuvum Nandragave Nadakkum - Bhagawad Geetha

(Loose Translation  - Whatever happened was for good, What is happening is for good, What will happen is also for good!)

How to evaluate others?

Test a SERVANT while in the discharge of his DUTY

A RELATIVE in DIFFICULTY,

A FRIEND in ADVERSITY, and

A WIFE in MISFORTUNE

                    -Chanakya Neethi

Brace for a harsh Budget

Of late we are getting news from the Government that the inflation is down to 7%, from the high double digit figures ruling roost for the past couple of years. Even 7% inflation when the GDP growth rate is < 7% is unacceptable. It should be around 3-4%.

Having said that I get a bad feeling that the Government is manipulating the figures keeping in mind the current elections to the 5 States, mainly UP and Punjab, and this low inflation figures is more to do with preventing a backlash against Rahul Gandhi, than anything else. With Railway fares likely to go up (unless Mamta refuses to do so, which is a possibility, in which case Central Government shall be forced to pump in money to support the ailing Railways, which anyway will put a burden on the common man by way of increased taxes elsewhere), and Government having the last window before the General Election to really take hard measures (with UP, Punjab elections out of the way, and with General Elections likely late 2013 or early 2014, this is the only chance to increase taxes), we are in for a harsh budget this time around, which would mean higher taxes, cut on subsidies etc.  It is my reading that the inflation will touch double digits by April 2012.

While everyone is cribbing about the inability of the Government to reduce subsidies on Fertilizer, Kerosene, Diesel and Food grains, no one talks about the Tax Exemption and special benefits (which tatamounts to subsidy) to the Industry, which is many times more than those given to the poorer sections of the society. The argument that giving subsidy to industries spur employment is yet to be proven. Most of the subsidies given to industries have gone to fatten the pocket of the rich industrialists (or found its way back to the political parties as 'contribution' or bribes) rather than being passed on to the customers or in creating employement. No studies have been conducted or is likely to be conducted in doing a cost-benefit analysis of the the subsidies and special benefits given to the industrialists. And most of them enjoy the profits in private while passing on the losses to the poor public (All you have to do is to observe how Vijay Mallya is trying his best to force Government or the Public Sector Banks to bail Kingfisher Airlines out, rather than pumping in money from his liquor business. The Kingfisher mess is purely due to bad business modelling and still poorer management. Since Mallya is not willing to risk his wealth on reviving his Airline, why should SBI or Government, whose money is the common man's, do so?).

The RBI has given indications that the CRR is on a downward trend. This is to counter industrial recession.  But reducing the CRR without slashing the Interest Rates is of no use. The former is likely to put in the market more money that could be lended out, but where are the takers? Who wants to take loans at such high rates?

The Stock Market is doing fairly well, but that is more due to FII inflow than due to the turning around of our economy.

The Government has been lurching from one crisis to another, and has hardly time to tackle the economic woes. With a lame duck Prime Minister, a tired Finance Minister,  a beleagured Home Minister, a sick Party Chief and a dud PM in waiting there is a leadership vaccum.

We, the people of India, deserve this and more for re-electing Congress and UPA in 2009.

The adage, 'We get the Government we deserve' has never been truer.