Few apparently unconnected incidents/policy decisions indicate Mid-Term Poll in India.
The Coal Scam in which the PM is heavily indicted. Sonia asking Congressment to be aggressive in taking on the opposition (Because the Scam hits close to home???). BJP has upped the ante and has not allowed the parliament to function till MMS resigns, not will it the next session too.
Mulayam Singh Yadav questioning Rahul Gandhi's credentials and announcing the decision to go alone in the next Parliamentary elections, thereby scuttling Congress's plan to form an alliance in UP. Also, the disasterous performance of Akhilesh Yadav's government means every day delay in SP pulling the plug on the UPA Government means loss of seats for SP, reducing its bargaining power in the post poll scenario.
Government deciding to hike the diesel price by Rs 5 and putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinder to 6 a year. UPA is sure this policy decision will force some of its allies to withdraw support as it is so blatantly anti aam admi. Trinamool Congress and NCP have already made their displeasure known, and both are itching to walk out of UPA.
Now the final nail in the coffin.By allowing 51% FDI in retail, broadcasting and aviation, Congress has left SP, TMC, BSP with hardly any room for manouvre. Their opposition to FDI in retail is well known. They just cannot take this humiliation any more, which means they have to walk out.
Congress knows it will get less than 50 seats if it waits till 2014, knowing how discredited the current regime is. Better to get 100 odd seats now, and hope to support a third front from outside than be irrelevant in 2 years time. And they can take the high moral ground of having been forced to go to the people because of SP, BJP, TMC, BSP claiming they were victims of being reformist, after destroying the economy for 8 long years.
I will stick my neck out and predict that the General Election will be held in January- February 2013, so that Congress can confine Modi to Gujarat, whose Assembly election will also have to be held with it, rather than losing Gujarat now badly, and then having to face a stronger Modi in 2014.
Watch out for January-February 2013!!
