Leap Year Birthday is here again

Another 29th February is here!

After a Gap of 4 years!

Another long awaited Birthday for me. Not that one wants to count the years when he is on the wrong side of 40s.

Last Birthday, I blogged that I would like to sign of as Dr.Rajan Venkateswaran on my next birthday. It hasn't happened. There was a momentum created by getting the M Phil degree in 2008, for me to complete my Ph.D. But many unforeseen events led to my not fulfilling my dream during the intervening years. Maybe, just maybe, the dream of a Doctorate is over forever.

Since the last birthday, I went through the whole cycle of boom-bust-boom. From the highs of a high level job in 2008-2009, to an year of absolute depth in 2010, to the struggle of setting up a new Consultancy company in an alien land in 2011, to the stable growth in 2012, life has indeed come a full circle.

The intervening period saw me move from the desert terrain of Kuwait City to the lush green Muscat City. No regrets there. That move was the most sensible decision I took in my life, though I had to endure a struggle to make my company up and running during its first year. That we ended in a profit at the end of the year, is no mean achievement.

On the positive side, I have mellowed a lot, which is a welcome sign. There is a maturity in the way I handle things, that was absent before. I am more patient and less intolerent. Have quietly slipped in nicely to the Top Management role and it sits easily on me, as I dont feel the stress. A real health scare in 2010 beginning forced me to have a relook at my health, and it culminated in my restarting my Tennis, a game I just love. My game has improved by leaps and bounds, and so has my health. No mean achievement at this age. And I set up a Consultancy Company single handedly and saw it grow into a profitable venture. Again a significant achievement.

On the flip side, I have put an end to my teaching stint, which I regret a lot, though I have got used to it by now. Better to stop when people ask Why, rather than Why Not!! In a way, it was the right time to stop teaching and like many other things in my life, I dont look back with regret once I have taken a decision. The non completion of Ph D is a huge disappointment, and the lost opportunity is one I might regret for the rest of my life. And I am yet to meet another person born on a leap year day!!!

Surprisingly, this Birthday, I haven't made any plans for the next 4 years, nor have I set any personal goals.  I want to take life as it comes. The last 4 years of wildly fluctuating fortunes has made me more philosophical. I can take failure and success with the same equanimity. There were times during the past 4 years when I felt God was just not being fair, and not giving me a break. But then I found out that every single thing that happened in life has a meaning, and leads to something else, like the links of a chain.

Ethu Nadanthatho Athu Nandragave Nadanthathu, Ethu Nadakkiratho Athu Nadragave Nadakkirathu, Ethu Nadakkavirukkiratho Athuvum Nandragave Nadakkum - Bhagawad Geetha

(Loose Translation  - Whatever happened was for good, What is happening is for good, What will happen is also for good!)

How to evaluate others?

Test a SERVANT while in the discharge of his DUTY

A RELATIVE in DIFFICULTY,

A FRIEND in ADVERSITY, and

A WIFE in MISFORTUNE

                    -Chanakya Neethi

Brace for a harsh Budget

Of late we are getting news from the Government that the inflation is down to 7%, from the high double digit figures ruling roost for the past couple of years. Even 7% inflation when the GDP growth rate is < 7% is unacceptable. It should be around 3-4%.

Having said that I get a bad feeling that the Government is manipulating the figures keeping in mind the current elections to the 5 States, mainly UP and Punjab, and this low inflation figures is more to do with preventing a backlash against Rahul Gandhi, than anything else. With Railway fares likely to go up (unless Mamta refuses to do so, which is a possibility, in which case Central Government shall be forced to pump in money to support the ailing Railways, which anyway will put a burden on the common man by way of increased taxes elsewhere), and Government having the last window before the General Election to really take hard measures (with UP, Punjab elections out of the way, and with General Elections likely late 2013 or early 2014, this is the only chance to increase taxes), we are in for a harsh budget this time around, which would mean higher taxes, cut on subsidies etc.  It is my reading that the inflation will touch double digits by April 2012.

While everyone is cribbing about the inability of the Government to reduce subsidies on Fertilizer, Kerosene, Diesel and Food grains, no one talks about the Tax Exemption and special benefits (which tatamounts to subsidy) to the Industry, which is many times more than those given to the poorer sections of the society. The argument that giving subsidy to industries spur employment is yet to be proven. Most of the subsidies given to industries have gone to fatten the pocket of the rich industrialists (or found its way back to the political parties as 'contribution' or bribes) rather than being passed on to the customers or in creating employement. No studies have been conducted or is likely to be conducted in doing a cost-benefit analysis of the the subsidies and special benefits given to the industrialists. And most of them enjoy the profits in private while passing on the losses to the poor public (All you have to do is to observe how Vijay Mallya is trying his best to force Government or the Public Sector Banks to bail Kingfisher Airlines out, rather than pumping in money from his liquor business. The Kingfisher mess is purely due to bad business modelling and still poorer management. Since Mallya is not willing to risk his wealth on reviving his Airline, why should SBI or Government, whose money is the common man's, do so?).

The RBI has given indications that the CRR is on a downward trend. This is to counter industrial recession.  But reducing the CRR without slashing the Interest Rates is of no use. The former is likely to put in the market more money that could be lended out, but where are the takers? Who wants to take loans at such high rates?

The Stock Market is doing fairly well, but that is more due to FII inflow than due to the turning around of our economy.

The Government has been lurching from one crisis to another, and has hardly time to tackle the economic woes. With a lame duck Prime Minister, a tired Finance Minister,  a beleagured Home Minister, a sick Party Chief and a dud PM in waiting there is a leadership vaccum.

We, the people of India, deserve this and more for re-electing Congress and UPA in 2009.

The adage, 'We get the Government we deserve' has never been truer.

A feeling of Nostalgia

For some strange reason, there is a sense of nostalgia today. Discussions with a colleague yesterday brought a flood of memories from bygone days. And that wonderful gadget iPad ( I can't imagine how I lived without it in the past ) allowed me to rediscover my taste for good music through some great youtube videos today.

The discussion with my colleague took me to my college days when I was very close to my late father. In mid 1980's, my father, who had come up the hard way in life, and a self made man, observed that a Savings in Cash of Rs 2.5 lakhs was critical, because Rs 2.5 lakhs invested in 12% p.a Fixed Deposits would fetch a monthly interest of Rs 2,500/- which was more than sufficient for a slightly upper middle class family to live comfortably, then. Anything less than a saving of Rs 2.5 lakhs meant you start eating up your capital to meet your operating expenses, while anything greater than Rs 2.5 lakhs resulted in your capital appreciating with savings from accrued interest, after your expenses. Times have changed since those days. Taking a rain check a quarter of a century later, I just imagined the plight of a person having only Rs 2.5 lakhs as savings, giving a monthly income of Rs 2,500 ( well he wont get that because the interest rates are much lower, though it has risen during the past year ! You can't survive for 3 days with Rs 2,500, even in rural India! The Reforms and the resultant inflation has meant that you need to have at least Rs 30,000 every month to lead a decent life, which means that your savings has to be Rs 30 - 40 lakhs at least!!. And are we happier than we were then? I just don't know. The way the economy is developing (!), if one is in his 40s now, he need to save at least Rs 3 Crores during the next 10 years for him to barely meet his middle class life style when he retires in say 2030. A sobering thought!

Teaching has been a passion for me all these years. I just love to teach, train or mentor. It comes naturally to me. Couple of years ago, I noticed that I was slowly getting out of touch with the new generation, their expectations, study ethic and value system, which resulted in lot of stress in me. When I got a chance to move away from Kuwait, I took the opportunity to bid goodbye to formal teaching forever. And frankly I am more at peace with myself these days. One of the things I am as passionate about teaching is carnatic music. Work pressure, lack of access to CD's and lack of opportunity to hear concerts meant I was living in the past - thinking that good Carnatic Music was what was being rendered by T N Seshagopalan or Balamuralikrishna or Maharajapuram Santhanam or GNB or MLV or D K Pattammal to name a few. Being abroad meant I was not exposed much to the new generation of singers. But the iPad and the you tube took me close today to Sanjay Subramaniam, T M Krishna and O S Arun, and I was amazed at their divergent approach to music and their expressive singing. It was as if a new door was opened for me. The feeling of melancholy still rankles as I type this post. How time flies? Just the other day I was into my 20s, listening to Carnatic Music over my Philips Transistor during my MBA Days to familiarise myself with Carnatic Ragams, and later on opening the newspaper everyday during my 5 month stay in Chennai to check where a good concert was held that day, before rushing back from the office and taking the Pallavan Transport Bus to the various Sabhas and Halls to listen to the Maestros. This was in 1989! A good 23 years ago! Some of the new singers of today were young kids those days like U Srinivas, N Ravikiran, Nithyasree, Vijay Siva....... When I saw many on iPad today, they were getting into middle age. And suddenly I rushed to the mirror to see my own reflection - and what I saw was a fat balding man in his late 40s looking every inch his age, with lines drawn on the face! I am getting old. The only solace is that I have a mind young enough to accept the new, and not to live in the past. Thank God for small mercies!

Toothless EC

The problem with the model code of conduct of the Election Commission during the elections is that it lacks teeth. We have seen many cases where the candidates have got away with murder, literally.

The Election Commission do not have quasi judicial authority to hear cases pertaining to elections. The final verdict has to be given by the Courts, and we know what happens when a case goes to the court.

Take the case of alleged malpractices by P Chidambaram during the last elections in Sivaganga. He was trailing by nearly 5000 votes till the end, when by some sleight of hand, he turned the deficit into victory, when he came to know that the national trend was favouring Congress. The case is pending at the Courts, but the damage is done. He has served more than 60% of his tenure, and that too as Home Minister, where his policies have a lasting impact on the Country. Suppose the Court were to find him guilty of malpractice. Then what? He loses his seat - that is if he doesnt appeal in the higher courts. If he does, then the final decision is likely to be handed down after a decade, if at all! Meanwhile, he has been holding an important Constitutional post, when his basic eligibility to be in that post is in question. Will Parliament delete all remarks made by him or nullify all his executive decisions? No way.

Why can't we have a system where we have separate courts or even the Election Commission being given quasi judicial powers to dispose of election related cases within 6 months of any election? But who will bell the cat? No political party wants to touch the issue with a barge poll.

Similarly is the case of money flowing freely during elections. Hundreds of crores pass hands during elections. This is an open secret. But has any candidate ever been punished for it. Well. I havent heard.

Now take the case of Salman Khurshid. He violated the model code of conduct, and he was censured by EC. Instead of being contrite, he has reiterated his stand of promising quota to Muslims under OBC category, thereby cocking a snook at the EC. EC has written to President, who in turn has forwarded it to PMO. And guess what will the PMO do. It will forward it to the Law Ministry. And who is the Law Minister? Salman Khurshid himself!!!

Need I say anything more?

Anna Hazare is fighting against the corruption. But corruption is not the root cause. It is our election process that breeds corruption. Clean the Election Process, and ensure speedy justice, have the guilty punished swiftly, and you put the fear of God in potential wrong doers.

Which brings us back to the old story of reforming our judicial system. Our Judicial system is dysfunctional, tediously slow and justice is denied to all and sundry. We hear about rare cases where justice is in fact done. But by then the criminal is so old, he can barely make it to the jail - Dont believe me? Ask Sukhram!!

Lack of prioratisation

Two decades of Economic Reforms has resulted in Profit going to the Private Entrepreneur while the Loss to be borne by the poor Public (All you have to do is look at how Kingfisher owner made money, and then when it ended up in a loss, begged the public sector banks and government to bail it out)

The Indian Economic Reforms were introduced in haste, without forethought and under duress from vested Western Interests. That it was thrust upon the Indians due to the poor economic situation the Country found itself in due to decades of wrong policies is another matter. But the cure is becoming worse than the disease with every passing year.

No. I am not against Reforms. What I am against is not ensuring checks and balances are in place prior to embarking on a major reform process, and not have set objectives and goals.

No Corporate worth its salt would have a Strategic initiative approved without KPI's and periodic review of attainment of KPI's. But, do we have a nation, our KPI's?

It looks like our Government has only one KPI - GDP growth rate. Everything is aimed at attaining 7-8% GDP Growth Rate. GDP is only an indicator.

We don't have KPI's for Unemployment, Employment Generation, Poverty Reduction, Inflation, Fiscal Deficit, Agricultural Growth, Industrial Growth, Services Growth, Illetaracy, Population, revival of sick units (or closing them), Subsidy Reduction, Transmission loss, Improvement of Roads, Infrastructure development............... the list is endless. The Government do have targets for all these, but they are given scant importance. If they are not achieved, and they are not achieved in any case, then nothing happens. No heads roll. And Government blunders on.

If we had a specific KPI for poverty reduction, we still will not be in a situation where more people are slipping below the poverty line, and the level of lack of sanitation in rural areas is appalling. Why can't we ensure clean drinking water and proper sanitation in every household is beyond my imagination. A portion of the money that is looted would suffice for the above purpose. Likewise primary education. The amount required to ensure proper schools and teachers is ridiculously low, compared to the subsidy given to industrialists. By doing so we are creating intellectual assets, that will be carried down from generation to generation. But for the Government, this is not a priority at all.

We pumped in billions into Airport upgradation. Did we ever do a cost-benefit analysis? Did we do an opportunity cost analysis? Would that money have been better spent on providing connectivity to the rural areas?

We pumped in billions to set up huge malls in the metros and other cities? But we hardly spent any money on developing rural markets that would have fetched better returns for the rural agriculturalists, that would have reduced poverty significantly.

We are committed to increase power generation capacity manifold by investing heavily in nuclear power plants. The amount involved is mind boggling. A hundreds and thousands of crores. But we are silent on cutting down our transmission loss, which is outrageous at 40%, half of which is theft. Why don't we spend on efficiency improvement than on creating more power that will again lead to more stealing?

I can go on and on...................

What we need is a national debate on the issues that need to be prioratised and taken up on a war footing, resources required to be identified and allotted.

But the very government that needs to do this is more worried about banning Salman Rushdie, burying corruption cases, throwing mud at people opposed to them, and in short not taking any decision.