Sunday 27 October 2019

How to Celebrate Deepavali as per Smriti


Happy Deepavali to all.

Let us see how the smritis instruct us to celebrate Deepavali.

In Bhavishya Purana

कार्तिके कृष्णपक्षे तु चतुर्दश्यां विधूदये |
तिलतैलेन कर्तव्यं स्नानं नरकभीरुभिः ||

In the month of Kartika, during the dark fortnight on the fourteenth lunar day, before sunrise with Sesame (Gingely or Til) oil, the one who is afraid of naraka, should take bath.

In Brahmapurana

तैले लक्ष्मीर्जले गङ्गा दीपावल्यां चतुर्दशी |
प्रातस्नानं तु यः कुर्याद्यमलोकं न पश्यति ||

During Deepavali, on chaturdashi (fourteenth lunar day) in the til (sesame) oil is Lakshmi and in the water is Ganga and the one who takes bath early morning will not see yamaloka (avoids naraka).

Further for special results (to get rid of paapa) while taking bath, one can take the apaamaarga stem or branch with thorns and leaves along with a clod of earth from a furrow and ritually rotate it over one's head.
सीतालोष्ठसमायुक्त सकण्टक दलान्वित |
हरपापमपामर्ग भ्राम्यमाणः पुनः पुनः ||

अपामार्ग - In Hindi चिडचिडी, चिरचिटा, चिचड़ा, लटजीरा, In English Prickly chaff Flower, In Tamil நாயுருவி and Biological name - Achyranthes aspera Linn.

After taking this bath one is supposed to do tarpana for Yama. Yama is both a devata and a pitr. So one has to do this Yamatarpanam as both Devatarpanam (yajnopaveeti) and Pitrtarpanam (praacheenaaveeti). Also Yamatarpanam and Bheeshmatarpanam has to be done by everybody i.e. even by the one whose father is alive.

During pradosha (thirteenth day) and amaavaasya (new moon day) in this period, one has to do deepadaanam (donation of lamps) to temples, mathas, gardens, public water bodies, animal shelters etc.

In Skandapurana

ततः प्रदोषसमये दीपान्दद्यान्मनोहरान् |
ब्रह्मविष्णुशिवादीनां भवनेषु मठेषु च ||

Finally Fireworks - उल्कादानं.

In Jyotirnibandha it is said

तुलासंस्थे सहस्रांशौ प्रदोषे भूतदर्षयोः |
उल्काहस्ता नराः कुर्युः पितृणां मार्गदर्शनं ||

When the sun is in tula rashi, during the month of kartika, on the 13th, 14th and 15th days of Krishnapaksha, men with fireworks in their hands, should show the path to their pitrs / ancestors.

The mantras to be chanted in this process are mentioned as follows, in the praachyanibandha:

शस्त्राशस्त्रहतानां च भूतानां भूतदर्शयोः |
उज्वलज्योतिषा देहं दहेयं व्योमवन्हिना ||

1) those (ancestors) who were killed by weapons or by other means, I burn/cremate their bodies with the bright light of this fire in the sky

अग्निदग्धाश्च ये जीवा येप्यदग्धाः कुले मम |
उज्वलज्योतिषा दग्धाः ते यान्तु परमां गतिं ||

2) all those beings of my kula / family, who were burnt by Agni or not burnt by Agni, may they get burnt / purified through this bright light and get an exalted state (paramagati).

यमलोकं परित्यज्य आगता ये महापथे |
उज्वलज्योतिषा वर्त्म प्रपश्यन्तो व्रजन्तु ते ||

3) Those ancestors who left the yamaloka and have come to this earth (during Mahalayapaksha), may they return in the path guided by this bright light.

So let us indulge in fireworks with this attitude. Om.

(All references taken from the book Smritikaustubha) ... Courtesy My friend Srikanth, Muscat. 

Tuesday 24 September 2019

@swamy64

I joined Twitter in 2010, but rarely tweeted.

I was never comfortable with FB, Instagram etc. I do use Whatsapp but strictly for one to one communication. I am not part of any group, and bluntly discourage people from send me forwarded messages, audios or videos. Made some enemies that way.

I had always felt that I am reasonably good at quips, one liners and have a fair sense of humour. I have always looked at the lighter side of life. This makes me suitable for Twitter.

Finally, I decided to plunge into Tweeting since the beginning of this month, and am finding it quite a nice way to get my point of view across on many issues facing the Nation.

You can follow me on Twitter  @swamy64  ( https://twitter.com/swamy64 )

Since I am building my followers from ground up, you wont see much original tweets in my Timeline. I reply to those whom I follow. Hence you can see more tweets of mine under Tweets & Replies tag in my Home Page.

Blogging here will continue.

Wednesday 4 September 2019

Why do people buy gadgets with features that they don't need or will not be able to use fully?


I have always wondered why PC/Laptops prices dont come crashing down. Both products are in declining stage in the Product Life Cycle, and have skimmed the market for a long time. The Prices should be really low. This is exactly true of Mobile Phones too.

Instead, the manufacturers, add unwanted features and keep the price artificially high, whereby inducing 'Solace Spending' by Consumers.

Why do people buy gadgets with features that they don't need or will not be able to use fully?

For many years, marketers and salespeople have realised there is money to be made selling people features they do not need and may never use. Many people when asked about the intricacies of their Mobiles or the complexities of their digital cameras are not sure whey they did indeed buy. Most sport-utility vehicles with complex off-road traction systems are rarely driven on anything but paved roads.

So if people don't use expensive high-end features, why do they pay more to get them? A series of experiments that explored this question found that people buy unnecessary features because of two cognitive errors: 1) they overestimate the risk that a product without such features will become obsolete, and 2) they overestimate the likelihood that they will learn to use the new features.

Consumers, especially those buying expensive electronic items, fear that if they don't buy this feature and a new product launches on the market, then they may have to rebuy everything again. Because features introduced more recently feel as though they are less likely to become obsolete, consumers who buy them experience less anxiety. The money they pay is really not for the feature but for the psychological solace it purchases .

Another experiment found consumers tend to think of new features as a kind of investment—something that costs money but will pay for itself as they learn to use and love it. Of course, most people never do learn to figure out the technology, meaning the investment is largely a bust.

Cognitive errors, of course, are not the only reason people buy things they cannot afford. A Sociological study found that parents, especially poor parents, tend to buy products they cannot afford because they are acutely focused on whether their children are fitting into peer groups. Parents are acutely sensitive to how certain consumer products influence their children's search for dignity.

There is one last reason people pay more than they should for products: They mistakenly believe a product has more value because it costs more money.

So the next time you buy a fancy gadget at a premium price, reflect for a moment you are getting value for money

Monday 5 August 2019

Historic Day

Modi, in his first term, shook up everyone by going for the demonetization of high denomination notes. But after that he went with the tide. There were many, including me, who felt he missed out on taking important political decision on Jammu & Kashmir, Ram Madhir, freeing Hindu Temples from Governmental Control or revamping the Education System.

But, in his second term, he has bit the bullet on J&K with a master stroke. This was on the cards the moment Amit Shah became the Home Minister.

It has always been that Modi proposes, Amit Shah disposes. Their friendship goes back a long way. Add to this the brilliant Ajit Duval, and considerable goodwill in the form of a resounding election victory, and we have the blue print for taking tough political decisions.

Bifurcation of J&K and abrogation of Article 370 ( technically not abrogation, but in effect Article 370 is redundant, as is Article 35A) was a master stroke. The signs were there, much before the massive troop movement in J&K. BJP worked overtime to get close to majority by getting first 4 TDP MPs to switch over, then got a few MPs of opposition to resign their position as MP, with a promise to elect them back on BJP Tickets. Congress, the main opposition party, and the stumbling block in the Rajya Sabha to many well meaning Laws from being passed, is currently headless. 

And then BJP struck and how.

J&K politicians were caught napping. They thought Government wont do anything till Amarnath Yathra was over. 

But Duval created a threat scenario, moved troops, cancelled the Yathra, evacuated tourists and yathris from the Valley, implemented Sec 144, put Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti etc on house arrest, and then the legal ingenuity of BJP took over.

Instead of taking the Parliamentary route, which would have meant the need for Constitutional Amendment to be passed with 2/3rd majority, BJP used the provisions of Article 370 itself to have it amended through a Presidential Declaration, which doesnt require a Constitutional Amendment

It was a Masterstroke!

And Modi, allowed Amit Shah to take the limelight, and how. Amit Shah had a field day in the Rajya Sabha today (It is noteworthy that the announcement and voting were made in Rajya Sabha first, where BJP do not yet have a majority, and not Lok Sabha) and got the Bill passed hands down.

While every one was talking about trifurcation of J&K, which would have left Kashmir alone, BJP did some out of the thinking, gave UT status to Ladakh, and created another UT combining Jammu and Kashmir, albeit with an Assembly, but with limited powers. Law and order remains with Centre, and all bills have to get the Central nod before being implemented. With delimitation likely to add another 7 seats to J&K, and most of it coming from Jammu Region, it is likely that the new UT will have a Hindu CM. That will be the icing on the cake.

And the special status that made Kashmiris think they are some special people is gone forever, and the doors are open for any Indian to buy land in Kashmir now, as it should be. This could see industrialist opening new factories there leading to overall development. 

Congress was reduced to a sorry state of being alone with Kashmir Parties, as all the opposition parties stood by BJP. Only JDU objected. Even AAP was forced to support, as otherwise it would have been suicidal for them with Delhi Elections looming large.

And it is the beginning of the end of the two dynasties in J&K, who are corrupt to the boot. Less said about the Hurriyat the better. They are all on the run or behind the bars for money laundering and terrorist funding. And our Brilliant Army has almost neutralized the Pakistan sponsored terrorists. 

Kashmir Parties and Congress always held that Kashmir will burn if Article 370 or 35 A is abrogated. Well 12 hours have passed and nothing has happened. Nothing will. Bullies are Cowards!

History has been made today. And we all lived to see this. 

Nehruvian blunder which cost us billions and thousands of lives, and atrocities on Kashmiri Pundits over the years, loss of our Jawans, has been corrected.

Now let us build that temple in Ayodhya!


Friday 2 August 2019

What happens when Karma Dharmam is not followed


The suicide of V G Siddhartha, The Cafe Coffee Day founder has been, unfortunately, used as a stick to beat the Central Government, who has been ruthlessly hunting down tax evaders.


The murky dealings that led to VGS's suicide clearly indicates that, though he was an entrepreneur with vision, his Business Model was akin to a Ponzi scheme. Borrow to fund unsustainable growth, borrow more to manage the debt, and borrow yet more at high interest rates to service the previous debts. Throw in shady money from Politicians and Private Investors, the picture is complete.

VGS owned assets worth thousands of crores. His share in MINDTREE, a software company, was sold recently to L&T for Rs 3200 crores, and  his CCD franchisee model of Business can never lose money. In fact Cafe Coffee Day balance sheet indicate it has been making profits.

So how did he pile up the Rs 7,000 crore debt?

Did he borrow money (or laundered money) from Indian Politicians (Black Money) and Private Investors to fund his hundreds of Hectares of Farm Land in South America? Did it not generate enough revenues to pay off his debt?

Where the Private Investors or Politicians involved tighten the noose around his neck to do a hostile take over?

The Tax Raids were in 2017 and unearthed massive tax evasion.

If you evade taxes, you have to face the consequences. 

I hear many businessmen crying hoarse that it was Tax Terrorism that led to VGS' suicide and want Government to go easy on the errant Businessmen, giving the laughable reason that Economy needs a revival and hence Tax Evading, Crooked Businessmen should be allowed to operate freely, violating the law, so that they will pump in more Black Money into the Economy. This was the model followed by UPA under Chidambaram, as FM. And we know where it took the Country to.

Long and short of it is that VGS was a visionary entrepreneur, created jobs to thousands, but he had very poor Business Ethics, had shady characters as Business Partners, and borrowed heavily violating basic Debt:Equity laws, got himself neck deep in debt, evaded taxes, indulged in money laundering and took his own life.

Let us not cry crocodile tears over his death, and use it as a stick to beat the Government that is trying to bring the Jungle Raj of Business World to follow the law.

VGS did not follow his  karma dharmam, and paid for it when it bit back. 

Monday 15 July 2019

England and New Zealand Should have been declared Joint Winners

The 50 over Final of World Cup is Tied

The Super Over is Tied

England declared winner because they scored more Boundaries than New Zealand?

As if Singles, Twos, Threes don't matter in Cricket?

It would have been appropriate and fair if both the Teams were declared as Joint Winners

Friday 31 May 2019

Good Riddance - Non Performing Ministers

Modi is in full control in his Second Term. 

Doubts were cast on him when he took oath in 2014 as PM. He was a Delhi outsider, and had to make compromises to be nominated as BJPs PM Candidate. People questioned his lack of experience in the area of Foreign Affairs, while grudgingly admitting his administrative abilities as Gujarat CM.

I have always felt Modi was forced to accommodate Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh as three of his Senior most Ministers and allot them the most important portfolios of Finance, External Affairs and Home.

Of the three, Rajnath Singh acquitted himself well as Home Minister, albeit with a lot of help from Ajit Duval. He strengthened the Internal Security Situation  and almost destroyed the Naxal problem, which was spreading like cancer. Demonetization helped Rajnath Singh a lot in cutting off the flow to terrorists and naxals, and that was not his doing. Also, it one has to give a major share of the credit to the National Security Advisor Ajit Duval, who was the brain behind beefing up the Internal Security. But at least Rajnath Singh allowed him to do his job. So let us give the man his due. Where he was a failure was in not initiating long term plans to reform our Police System, which is a disgrace to India.

Arun Jaitley was a disaster as Finance Minister, whatever his cheerleaders say. He soft pedaled the inquiries on many a scandal, and almost lost Modi the elections, because the common refrain was that Modi couldnt get the corrupt punished. At times it looked like the Finance Minister was shielding many crooked Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi, Robert Vadra, P Chidambaram, Karti Chidambaram and a host of other politicians like Raja, Kanimozhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, or even Mamta Bannerjee. Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi absconded during his vigil, and only some deft work by Modi and the lawyers saved the situation. Chidambaram and his cronies had laid many a mine field in the Finance Ministry before they left, and Arun Jaitley, instead of defusing, added his own.  Whatever little progress that happened in these cases was during the period Piyush Goyal was standing in for Arun Jaitley, which forced Arun Jaitley to cut short his recovery period and take over the Ministry to reverse many a good decision Piyush Goyal made. There have been whispers about his closeness to Congress leaders, especially P Chidambaram. Karma is a bitch. It hit him back towards the end of the tenure affecting his health, which made him decide to not be part of the Modi 2 Government. For me it is Good Riddance.

Less said about Sushma Swaraj, the better. She never wanted Modi to be the PM, but was accommodated to pacify L K Advani. Modi superbly sidelined her by placing S Jayasankar as the Foreign Secretary, and he himself taking the lead in developing International Relationships. As Modis stature grew, Sushmas diminished. She was reduced to responding to tweets from NRIs seeking trivial help (which is not her job, in any case), and granting Medical Visas to Pakistanis, which was hated by the Core BJP Voters. She decided not to contest again, and hence would have to be accommodated in the Rajya Sabha, if she were to be made Minister again. Her health is also questionable like Jaitleys. Maybe she will be sent to US or UK as an Ambassador. This was another non performer who doesnt fit with Modis style of functioning.

Am happy to see Maneka Gandhi kicked out. If ever there was an undeserving talentless Minister, it is Maneka. And she is burdened with an arrogant sulking son, who thinks he is to be anointed as UP Chief Minister because of the Gandhi surname.

A few of the apple polishing non performers like Radha Mohan Singh, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore has been eased out. The message is clear, Ship up or Shape Out.

I am really sorry to see the biggest failure in Modi 1 Government Pakash Javedkar continuing in Modi 2. This guy was an absolute disaster as HRD Minister. Likewise Ravishankar Prasad. A late inductee in Modi 1, Alphonse Kannamthanam is shown the door for not being able to deliver Christian Votes in Kerala, and justly so. The guy created controversies whenever he opened his mouth, which was far too often.

This post is about those who were deservedly show the door. About the new Cabinet, we will discuss in another post, once the Portfolios are announced

Thursday 23 May 2019

A Big Thank You to the Wise Indian Voters



Thank You, the Wise Voters of India for 
Re Electing Karma Yogi Narendra Modi and BJP 
with a Bigger Margin. 

India's future is safe with him and you!

Wednesday 22 May 2019

Country is Safe with Modi


This blog is written a day before Election Results are announced. I am not going by exit polls. I have called this election for BJP/NDA by end of Phase 4 itself to my friends.


What most analysts dont talk about is that Congress is no longer a Political Party. All it has is a motley collection of people (I wont call them leaders), most of whom sons or daughters of erstwhile Congress bigwigs, whose only aim is to somehow get a share of power, so that they can become rich easily.

And there is a sense of entitlement that only they are born to rule.

It doesnt have an ideology, nor does it have a political vision. There are no long term action plans. Booth level workers are non existent (except in a handful of constituencies) and in case the party doesnt give a damn about them.

Congress survived on the doles given to the poor, which went through middlemen, who took a substantial portion for their own benefit. The poor voted for Congress, as they thought this was the only way for them to get these benefit. "At least I am getting something" syndrome.

Modi changed the dynamic completely. True, 100% electrification, toilets and LPG changed the life of millions of rural poor, but it is the opening of Jan Dhan Bank Accounts to cover the whole population, and Direct Transfer of Benefits to the poor, that has been the game changer. For the first time in their life, the poor could live with dignity, without having to be subservient to the middlemen to get what is due to them. The Rs 2000 per 4 months relief given to farmers, reached their Bank Account within days of the Scheme being announced by the PM. Seeing is believing. People in MP, Rajasthan and Karnataka saw how quickly Congress can take them to the bad old days of hoarding, middlemen and what not. Urea disappeared immediately on Kamal Nath taking over MP, the goal posts were shifted with respect to farm loan waiver in Karnataka, MP and Rajasthan. In short, Congress showed its true face. Word was out in the streets - Goonda Raj is back. 

Indian electorate is not stupid to cut the branch of the tree they were sitting on.

And above all, the image of Modi as a honest administrator and his ability to keep his flock clean. There has not been a single corruption scandal during the past 5 years. Rahul Gandhi can shout for all he wants about corruption in Rafaele deal, where none existed. The more he accused, the more disenchanted people were with him. They laughed him off. When he offered the NYAY scheme doles, people turned their faces away, knowing that this is a bluff of the first order. Rahul and Opposition just lacked the credibility to match Modi. 

In the peoples eyes, Modi would have not lived up to all their expectations. But at least he is honest, works hard and is sincerely trying. Also, he has brought dignity back into the lives of the poor and the nation. Contrary to what the Opposition thinks, the average Indian cares a lot about India's standing in the World.

All he wants is to live with dignity, see his country prosper and be assured that the future is safe/good for his children.

And he knows these wants are safe with Modi.


Monday 6 May 2019

Will SC speed up the Justice System?

The Supreme Court Internal Committee has acted very quickly, conducted an In-house enquiry and acquitted CJI Ranjan Gogoi of the Sexual allegation charge raised by an ex SC lady employee.

This is fine by me. It was clear as daylight that this was a trumped up allegation by the anti national forces, who used the woman in question, as a tool to put pressure on the CJI, who is to give some important judgments against the Congress and the dynasty.

I am happy the CJI got justice.

But the question remains whether the SC would have moved at such speed if it were anyone else, including the President or PM of the Country.

History suggests that the case would have dragged on for years, denying the accused a reprieve or punishment.

Will this open the eyes of the SC and they do structural reforms to speed up the justice system?

Tuesday 30 April 2019

Solid Achievement should win Elections Comfortably for Modi

After 5 years of Modi Rule, India has

99% of Homes Electrified
97% of Homes have Toilets
87% of Homes have Cooking Gas
100% of Homes have Bank Accounts

One can argue that not all of this done was by Modi. But more than 30% of the remaining difficult terrains was covered by Modi Government during 5 years. And this is what previous Congress Governments couldn't do in 60 years. 

This final push required determination, dedication and planning & operational excellence.

Add to this Implementation of GST, Raise in the IT Exemption Limit, Mudra Loans, Better Road Connectivity, Improved Rail Services, Innovative Waterways and a rejuvenated Army.

And a PM who is dedicated to Serve the nation, without being Corrupt, 24x7.

If this doesn' win Modi the elections with a bigger margin, we have to conclude that Indians dont deserve such a person.

But indications at the end of Phase IV is that BJP is headed for 300+ seats on its own, and 350+ along with Allies.

Bharat Matha ki Jai!


Sunday 28 April 2019

India turning in to an Aspirational Society

We have become an 'Aspirational Society' post Modi becoming the Prime Minister.

We had aspirations before, and the upper and middle class tried to realize it by going abroad. And the poor, condemned to live on doles, were told by the Congress that they had no right to aspire. For them Electricity, Toilet, Gas Connection, Bank Account, Internet, Potable water, Drainage etc remained only in dreams.

In Five years, Modi has revolutionized the life of the poor. It is not perfect by any means, but he has recognized their basic needs, fulfilled them and is prodding them to push further.

100% of houses with Electricity, Toilets, LPG Connection, Bank Accounts has changed the landscape and mindset of the rural population. Add to this Mudra Loans, better connectivity, and the proposal to connect all villages with Optic Fibre, the future looks bright.

I have written before how a few villagers stopped their vehicle on seeing my father, who was leading a retired life, rushed to him and thanked him profusely for electrifying their villages, though he was only doing his duty as an Executive Engineer in Kerala State Electricity Board. They went on to tell him proudly that their children have been able to get admission into top colleges because of availability of electricity at night.

And this was in Kerala in 1980s, which was on the forefront of education and infrastructure in 1980s. 

Imagine then the change that will be seen in remote Northern and Eastern States now. The impact of Modi's rural developmental agenda will be felt years or decades down the line.

Our youngsters from Rural Area can now freely aspire to become whatever they want. The world is at their finger tips.

The Urban and NRI youngsters will take more time to come to grips with the changes in our Country, and what it means for them.

Recently, a young Class XII Indian student in Muscat asked me whether she should pursue her studies and career in US, UK or Germany.

I told her to put India at the top of the list, and told her why, as one of the very few fastest growing economies, she will stand to benefit more by working in India, than in the stagnant economies of US, UK or Germany.

Being brought up in Oman, she didn't quite understand the significance of what I said, but it made her think.

I wanted to tell her 'Janani Janma Bhumicha Swargatha Pigareeyasi', but did'nt, as she wouldn't have understood, having been brain washed by her Church, Parents, Friends and the School, which did its best to demean India and Indians.

I am sure after another term or two of Modi, I wont have to even offer such advises, as awareness would have kicked in among the youth about the greatness of our Country

Sunday 21 April 2019

Karma is a Bitch

I have no love lost for the Chief Justice of India Ranjan Gogoi. 

He crossed the Lakshman Rekha when he ganged up with 3 other SC Judges to hold a Press Conference against the then CJI Deepak Mishra.

And he is now been alleged of sexual misconduct by an Ex-Junior Staff.

When he held the Press Conference then, he diminished the dignity of the Court, and cast aspersions against his own honest Chief Justice. A man of his intelligence was definitely aware that he was being used by a Cabal, who were acting on behalf of Congress Party and a few other anti nationals like Lawyer Indira Jaisingh and Journalist tShekhar Gupta, to delay the Ram Janmabhoomi case. When the Government refused to bite and take action against the four judges, the ploy fell flat, and a mockery of impeachment action was initiated against Deepak Mishra. To some extend the entire drama achieved its objective. Deepak Mishra tried to be too even handed that he handed down a few questionable judgements and delayed the Ram Janmabhoomi case till elections are over.

Modi was gracious enough to overlook the misdemeanour of Ranjan Gogoi, and made him the CJI. Other judges got away scot free. It was a mistake. This was an opportunity for Modi to put Supreme Court, which was over reaching, in its place.

Ranjan Gogoi has his roots in Congress. His father was a Congress Politician and Minister. He was supposed to churn out judgments favouring the Congress Party and Dynasty. But he surprised many by being very independent and has done a good job overall. 

The Dynasty and Eco System dont like this. And they have their own way of getting back. 

The trigger was the SC taking a dim view of Rahul Gandhi shouting all over the place that SCs decision to admit certain documents pertaining to Rafaele Deal as part of a review petition amounted to confirming that Government was indulging in Corruption, when it was not so. SC asked Rahul Gandhi to explain his conduct, which is coming up for hearing this week. Also, the Ram Janmabhoomi case, the National Herald case are all cases where the Dynasty has huge stakes.  

Hence, typical mafiaso style they trumped up a false case of sexual harassment against the Ranjan Gogoi. I am fairly certain this is a fake case, but in any case this needs to be investigated and the culprits exposed.

But what is to be noted that the accused, Ranjan Gogoi, was part of the Bench (though he did not write the orders) which took up this case. There is a clear conflict of interest here, which should have been avoided. This is exactly the same situation when the SC heard the case against itself on the NJAC, and passed a judgment in its favour, rather than appointing an impartial Arbitrator.

But strange are the ways of the SC. One hopes that SC will be shown its place in Modi's second term.

To Ranjan Gogoi, one can only remind him that 'Karma is a Bitch'

Friday 19 April 2019

Cryptic Takeaways after Phases 1 & 2 of Polling

Key Cryptic Takeaways from the Election Campaign so far;
  • Narendra Modi stands head and shoulder above all the leaders, and is leading a Presidential type Campaign this time too, but with a difference. He has solid achievements to back him, and this is being appreciated by people across the country.
  • The much hyped Opposition 'Mahaghatbandhan' is in shambles. The leaders have been exposed as dynastic with their interest limited to pushing their sons, nephews, grandsons, wives apart from minting money from prospective candidates
  • The Opposition has not been able to show a road map for India's development, and has the limited agenda of Modi bashing to seek votes. Voters don't see the benefit of voting for them
  • Bengal under Mamata Bannerjee has slipped to a complete lawless State with hooliganism, whimsical fascist decision making by Mamata, and Election Commission has turned a blind eye to the lack of free and fair polling in the State. Any future election should be conducted, only after dismissing the incumbent Government with the State under Presidents rule. Even election this time should be countermanded.
  • Arvind Kejriwal has been exposed for the charlatan that he is. The anti corruption crusader begging corrupt Congress to ally with him, has destroyed his image once and for all. Refreshingly, there is hardly a soundbite from him, and gone are the days when he hogged the media, who projected him as an alternative to BJP. He is reduced to be a non entity now.
  • As expected, Priyanka Vadra is a damp squib, despite Media hyping her as the next great thing. She will fade into oblivion post elections.
  • Rahul Gandhi continues to flaunt his idiocy, but worryingly he is showing psychopathic tendencies, and a high level of immaturity. He cant go around calling everyone 'Thief' without an iota of evidence. 
  • The Main Stream Media has become irrelevant, exposed for the charlatans they are. They are anti-hindu, anti-bjp, anti-Modi and even anti-National. They have lost all sense of balance. Every single lie propounded by them has been shot down within hours by the Social Media Warriors, who are seen to be more credible. At least the Social Media Warriors dont hide their bias, political inclination and try to fool the people. 
  • The South, except Karnataka, has become a cesspool of minoritysm. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, AP and Telengana has been taken over by Christians and Muslims. It is disheartening to see the youngsters being blatantly anti-Modi. I have no issues with people having different political leanings. The issue is when blind hatred for one man clouds their judgment totally. I am afraid these States will be neglected over a period of time. Already all of them have severe financial and governance issues, and cant survive without support from Central Government. It is almost like cutting the branch one is sitting on.
  • The Election Commission has become stupidity personified. Their taking up irrelevant issues and banning leaders, prompted by the opaque Supreme Court, is undermining their credibility. Added to this is them not taking cognizance of the blatant malpractices and violence unleashed by Trinamul Goons in West Bengal, which has made free and fair poll impossible. The whole idea of phasing out the polls across 40 days is to ensure free and fair poll. If that is not possible, we can as well have a single day polling across the country. Same is the case with Tamil Nadu, where money was distributed widely,  especially in Sivaganga Constituency. But EC, who were quick to take action against Private Citizen for asking to vote for Modi in his Wedding Invitation, has not lifted a finger against Karti Chidambaram and his rowdies. The Kerala EC has become a laughing stock for asking Parties not to rake up the Sabarimala issue.  Once hopes Modi and Shah takes EC and SC head on and show them their place in their Second Term.
At end of Phase 2 of Polling, Modi is well on his way to Winning Again by a bigger margin!

Tuesday 9 April 2019

South Indian Cesspool of Minority Politics - A major threat to Hindus

South India has become a cesspool of Minority appeasement. The social structure is changing and this is not good news for the Hindus.

When Politicians brazenly takes a pro minority (read Christian and Muslim) stand during campaigning, it is time for Hindus to sit up and take serious note.

In Kerala, Hindu population barely crosses 50%. It is why the Communist Government decided to work against the Hindu sentiments in the Sabarimala issue, while pussyfooting on the implementation of Supreme Court judgment on the Yokoba - Orthodox case, and also not showing any inclination to ban the loudspeakers as mandated by Supreme Court prior to Namaz. The Christians and Muslims vote en bloc, and it is why Rahul Gandhi had to come all the way down to Wayanad, as the Constituency has 60% minority population, out of which 45% are muslims, who support Congress led UDF. 

The Dravida Kazhakam politics of DK and DMK has ensured mass conversion of Hindu population to Christians in most parts of Tamil Nadu, especially the Southern part. The anti national protests against Koodankulam Nuclear Plant and the forced Closure of the Sterlite Plant are all Church sponsored. DMK under Karunanidhi at least showed a pretense of supporting Hindus, though not Brahmins. The Brahmins were hounded out of Tamil Nadu long ago. In addition, there are big pockets of Muslim dominated areas, funded by money from Gulf and Malaysia, where even the Police dare not enter. The Ghetto in Ukkadam, from where the plan for bombing Advanis rally in late 1990s were planned is a classic example. When Police finally entered the area, they were amazed to see the stockpiles of weapons and bombs. The area still is a flashpoint. Post Karunanidhi, Stalin and team has not only started exhibiting blatant minority appeasement, but have started abusing Hinduism and its rituals in every available forum. AIADMK under Jayalalitha, was reasonably pro hindu, but would do nothing to antagonize the Muslim Vote Bank, and allowed the threat to grow.

The erstwhile Andhra Pradesh under YSR, who was a converted Christian himself, aggressively supported mass conversion, and this policy of Christian appeasement is followed by his son Jagmohan Reddy. To counter this Chandrababu Naidu is dangerously courting Muslim Vote Bank, and has promised to have a Muslim as Dy CM if elected to power again. Hindus in the divided AP is left in the lurch. 

The Splinter Telengana, was indeed formed based on demand by the Muslims, who are a powerful vote bank. KCR is quite open about pampering the Muslims to the detriment of everyone else.

Only Karnataka has buckled the trend, though the Mangalore area is quite sensitive with frequent Hindu Muslim clashes. The State has not returned a Muslim MP since 2004.

We are seeing a massive Hindu consolidation in Kerala, and it is my guess that BJP will occupy the space of the Communists, like they did in Tripura, in another 10 years or so. BJP, standing alone, has 15% Vote Share and is not able to attract allies, who have formed two groups UDF and LDF. But once BJP cross 20%, the game will change permanently, as apart from CPM and Muslim League, no other party can hope to get 10% vote share on their own. 

Modi and Amit Shah has lot of work to do to reclaim South India, like they did in East India. They need to consolidate, and get power in Karnataka (Yeduriappa need to be replaced by a dynamic youngster). This has to be followed by working at the ground level in Kerala and targeting the younger generation. NCN is on his way out in AP. Instead of piggy backing Jagmohan Reddy, BJP should try to occupy that space, with an eye on the future. In TN, BJP missed a trick by not brokering the peace between EPS led AIADMK and Dinakaran led AIADMK. This, along with others like PMK, DMDK would have thrown the anti hindu DMK led alliance to the Bay of Bengal. 

BJPs communication strategy is defensive both in Kerala and Tamilnadu. This has to change. And they need to identify a pan South Indian leader who will be the glue. Can they?

Tuesday 2 April 2019

T-20 Cricket - Pros and Cons - 3 - Batting

T 20 is designed to be a Batsmen's game. Every single rule favours the Batsmen. Bowler has to always bowl in the hitting zone of the Batsman, he cant bowl bouncers at will, Boundaries are ridiculously short, there are normally no close in fielders to snaffle up the edges, no restrictions on the bat means even mishits get hit for sixes..... the list is endless.

On the pro side, Batsmen are trained now to look for runs, which has had a positive influence on Test Cricket, and even ODIs. They score at a much faster pace in Test Cricket, making the matches more exciting. I remember once in 1981, travelling for 2 days in  Train from Palghat to Delhi to watch India play England at Feroz Shah Kotla in a Test Match. England won the toss, and Boycott and Tavare batted the whole day and England ended up with 186 for 1!. Those days are gone.

The Batsmen are very innovative, and aggressive. Improvisations galore. Reverse Sweep, Steering late to third man, scoop over wicket keepers head and the ability of batsmen to find the gaps are definite advantages. The running between the wickets have improved and it is a pleasure to watch athletic batsmen like Virat Kohli, A B Devilliers etc run like hares between wickets, converting ones to twos. A couple of days ago, David Warner and Bairstow ran RCB ragged with fantastic running between the wickets. 

Batsmen are not afraid to loft the ball, a far cry from the old school of batting. I remember having to run two laps as a punishment for lofting the ball while batting in the nets in 1980s. The Coach was furious, as we were taught only to drive the ball along the ground.

On the con side, sound technique, especially defensive techniques have totally disappeared. In Test Cricket more batsmen get out nibbling the ball outside the off stump, a carry over from their T 20 matches, where they can get away with it. Today's Test Teams cant play out 3 sessions on the final day to save a Test Match, though there are have been one or two exceptions. 

Batsmen are losing the ability to play the short ball. T 20 expects them to plonk the left foot forward and towards mid wicket to hoick an ugly cross batted swipe. This creates a major issue when the ball is bowled short, and we see more batsmen getting hit. With the batsmen getting to play in flat surfaces in T 20 all the time, they are found wanting when the pitch offers something for either the fast bowlers or turns for the slow bowlers. There is a marked deterioration in the skill sets of the batsmen overall. Loose technique, coupled with over arching aggression, enhanced risk taking have led to shorter stays at the crease across the formats. Once, not long ago, good Batsmen used to put a price on their wicket. Not any more. It almost appears Batsmen dont mind getting out, as it happens frequently in T 20s.

Saddest part is that Batsmen feel an entitled lot, having all the rules framed in their favour.



Friday 29 March 2019

T-20 Cricket - Pros and Cons - 2 - Bowling

Is it a fact that T-20 Cricket has improved the area of Bowling?

On the positive side, Bowlers are more innovative. Knuckle Balls, Cross Seam Deliveries, Slow Bouncers, Doosras and more use of Yorkers have been added to the arsenal of many bowlers. Some of them transfer these skills to Test Cricket and ODI, and has reaped rich dividends. Jasprit Bumrah is a classic example. T-20 has also given a fresh lease of life to the Wrist Spinners, both Right and Left Arms. Bowlers are careful about bowling no balls, and with harsh wide rules in place, the overall accuracy has improved. Rarely do we see bizarre wides, like the one R P Singh bowled first up on being recalled in England, being bowled in Test Cricket these days.

However, the negatives are far too many. T-20 do not encourage genuine quicks. With batsmen swinging at everything, especially in the first Power Play, and with field restrictions in place, the faster you bowl, the faster the ball will travel to the boundary. This has forced many a genuine quick to sacrifice pace for accuracy, which is a pity. 

The bits and pieces cricketers, who ruined ODI for quite a long time (One of the reasons England never won a ODI World Cup), who bowl at 130's accurately, stump to stump is more preferred that a talented genuine quick or swing bowler.  T-20 is slowly killing the Swing and Seam Bowlers. Most of the pitches are roads, and bowler cannot expect any assistance from the pitch. In addition, the boundaries are so short, when the bowler induces a mis-hit from the batsman, more often than not the ball clears the fence. This has to do with the quality improvements in bats. 

Only the wrist spinner has a role in today's  T-20. Genuine traditional off spinners are not fielded for fear of being cross batted out of the ground. No spinner will dare to toss the ball up, since boundaries are only 60 metres at best. The art of using the flight and drift is history. There are rare exceptions like Kuldeep Yadav, but he is a class apart.

Wicket taking is a secondary objective, with containment the main one. When it comes to Test Cricket, most modern bowlers have forgotten how to plan, work out the batsmen and take his wicket. 

With even good balls being tonked around for sixes, bowlers get disheartened and stops innovating. They are seen more as a fodder for the batsmen.


Finally, with bowlers being allowed only 4 overs per innings, and that too they dont bowl at a stretch, any decent spell is limited to 2 overs at best. The fitness required is to bowl 2 intense overs, and not a 7-8 over spell which requires more stamina. We see more bowlers breaking down at Test level precisely because of this. When you have a 7-8 over spell, you can work on a batsman's weakness, persist with a strategy and get immense satisfaction when you get his wicket. You can have a bad spell in Test Cricket, but have the time to rethink, come back and redeem yourself. This is not possible in T-20.

I would call for more sportive pitches, which gives something to the bowler is a must. I would like to see a 125-135 score with an even contest between bat and ball, than a mindless 200 plus total. The boundary ropes have to be pulled back to at least 80 yards, if not 90. This shall make it difficult for batsmen to get away with mishits. It will also bring back the off spinner into the game, and encourage the spinners to flight more. The absurd leg side wide rule has to go. Batsmen are so innovative today that they are quite capable of handling a ball going down the leg side. We can have the leg side wide defined as one going beyond a further 3 stumps after the leg stump. This should be fair and discourage negative bowling.

Batsmen take too much risk because all the 11 can bat, and it is impossible for the team to be All out in 120 balls (though it does happen occasionally). Just as a bowler is allowed to bowl only 4 overs, the batting team should be allowed to use only 6 batsmen, and Team would deem to have been all out if 5 wickets fall. This should make the batsman think a bit more and not take suicidal risks, as is happening now. The top 6 batsmen should be able to last 20 overs.

Thursday 28 March 2019

T-20 Cricket - Pros and Cons - 1 - Fielding and Fitness

It is 14 years since the first T-20 International was played, and 11 years since IPL started. This format has created lot of spectator/audience interest and brought back crowds to the stadium. The purist, like me, continues to frown on T-20, but it is undeniable that T-20 has revived interest in Cricket, which was facing an existential crisis at the beginning of the century. Let us see the pros and cons.


With the advent of T-20, fielding standards and fitness of players have shown an astounding increase. We marveled once at the frozen frame of Jonty Rhodes air borne to run out a batsmen in ODI and his fielding used to be the benchmark for a long time. But today, there are many who are equal to or even better than Jonty. Some of the catches taken at the boundary ropes are breath taking. Palming the ball up inside the boundary, then stepping out, and coming back to finish the catch is passe. The ground fielding and catching in the deep is excellent. There are very few slouches on the field, and Captains dont have to worry about hiding poor fielders in the ground, as there is no place for poor fielders in a T-20 team. There are a few exceptions like Chris Gayle, but then he is a class act with the bat. Fielding inside the ring is sharper, and pick up & throwing is generally top class. 

The downside to T-20 is the negative impact it has on Close in Catching. Slip fielders are non existent, and we have not seen a Forward Short Leg in a T-20 match for a long time. The quality of Slip catching has taken a nose dive, and this can be seen from the amount of catches being dropped in the Slip cordon in Test matches. 

T-20 has created an awareness among youngsters on the need to be a super fit athlete. Poor Pujara. Despite all his batting skills and exploits, he doesnt find a place in any IPL team. It is not that he is not fit as a batsman, but he is nowhere near the fitness level required for a good fielder. Remember how Kohli benched Sarfraz at RCB for not working hard on his fitness. To his credit, Virat Kohli leads by example, and has created a revolution in the area of team and individual fitness.

For me, this stress on fitness is the greatest contribution of T-20. When I used to attend Coaching Camps in early1980s, our exercise regime included 2 laps around the ground, a few stretching exercises. These days, every aspiring cricketer spends a few hours a day in the gym. He has to, or else he will be left behind. The women cricketers are fantastically athletic too - Veda Krishnamurthy is a classic example. 

T-20 is creating a generation of super fit youngsters, and that is great for the society

Wednesday 20 March 2019

Reality stares at Congress

The Lutyens media and the Congress eco system are trying their best to prop up the Party as an alternative to BJP. But the ground realities are different.

Let us look at the last three elections, and seats won by Congress in 3 States, Andhra Pradesh (United), UP and Maharashtra. Together these 3 States (now 4, as AP has been bifurcated to AP and Telengana) send 170 MPs to the Lok Sabha, which is slightly less than 1/3rd of the Seats.

Year                        AP            Maharashtra            UP             Total        
2004                         29                 13                            9                  51
2009                         33                 17                           21                 71
2014                           2**                2                             2                  6

** The 2 seats in AP in 2014 is from the bifurcated Telengana, with Congress drawing a blank in AP.

Come 2019, Congress's best case scenario is,

Year                        AP            Maharashtra            UP             Total        
2019                          0                    2                              1                3

Congress is virtually wiped out in erstwhile AP (now AP and Telengana), with BJP and Shiv Sena on alliance in Maharashtra Congress will struggle to get even the 2 seats, and in UP the best case scenario is Sonia retaining Rae Bareilly. 

Congress has not made any major inroads in any other State to compensate for this. 

As things stand today, Congress will struggle to touch 60, and that too only if they eat humble pie in Bihar and Delhi. I am not sure they will make much headway in MP, Rajasthan and Karnataka. True, BJP almost had a clean sweep in the first two, and this time they will drop seats. But the Congress State Government's performance is nothing to shout about. 

This is the reality. The noise you hear on Media is only optics, nothing more.

Tuesday 19 March 2019

Areas for Modi to focus during his Second Term - 1

Now that he has stabilized the Economy, done excellent work on Infrastructure Development and Foreign Policy, Modi has to turn his attention to certain critical issues dragging the Country down during his Second Term.

First and foremost is to clean up the Judiciary. Our Judiciary is the epitome of inefficiency, cronyism and corruption (both moral and monetary). The appointment to SC is opaque, and about 50 families have dominated the SC Judges panel during the past few decades. This is totally unacceptable. Cases take decades (I have a personal experience of a land dispute filed against us in 1998 still stuck in local Civil Court till date). The Conviction rate in Criminal Case is abysmally low, and in cases pertaining to Economic Crimes, almost zero. The drama surrounding  Sahara has made our judiciary a laughing stock. Government has tried to rectify this with the new laws, but that pertains to recovery of money. The fraudsters still can hope to go scot free or be a VIP undertrial. The entire Judiciary should be asked to fall in line or impeached. Courts should start functioning by 9.30 am and work till 5.30 pm. They should enjoy only standard holidays, and no bullshit about Summer Holidays, Vacations etc. The number of adjournments that can be sought should be limited to one or two per plaintiff and defendant. With technology available, if lawyers cant file responses within a week, they dont deserve to be lawyers. The lawyers fee has to be capped, so that the poorest of the poor have access to legal aid. Or alternatively, as part of CSR, Law Firms should be made to do pro-bono work compulsorily for 25% of the cases.

The Prison system, allowing rich and powerful criminals to misuse the parole and medical reasons, has to be demolished and reconstructed. We need to have more open prisons for not so hardened criminals, that gives them a real chance of reforming themselves. The prisons for hardened criminals should ensure they get no special privilege whatsoever. We have a situation in Kerala, where criminals convicted of Political murders are enjoying their life in Prison, and get Parole at will. Lalu Prasad Yadav is having field day running his party from the Prison. Whether Sasikala is actually confined to prison or is living in a hotel outside no one knows. Once criminals lose the fear of prison, they and others will continue to defy law at will.

The great shake up has to be in the Police Department. Our Police Force is a joke. No one has faith in them. Their ability to solve crimes in a time bound manner is questionable. In most States, the Police Force is highly politicised, unfit and corrupt. They are abusive to boot.  We also need a modern Police Force at the Centre like the FBI in USA, that has the powers to investigate on all cases that has inter-state ramification, without having to being requested by the State Government. The focus should be on prevention of crime rather than detection, post crime. The conviction rate has to increase, targets fixed. The Police has to be made accountable for the law and order in their area.  They should be protected from Political interference. All appointments has to be made by the Policemen themselves, and should not be influenced by Politicians. A classic example is how the Armed Forces handle this issue. It is why they are head and shoulders above everyone else, and trusted/respected by common man

Technology pertaining to Crime, Detection, Punishment has grown by leaps and bounds. Our system is still in medieval ages. We desperately need a state of the art Justice, Police and Prison System that is futuristic in thinking..... to be continued....

Monday 18 March 2019

Modi vs XYZ - A No Contest

The Opposition has got it all wrong.

Not a single electorate will concur with their slogan that Modi is Corrupt. Even the die hard 'so called intellectual' Malayalis, or Bengalis, or people from Minority Communities who have an axe to grind, may blame Modi for many things, but will never accuse him of Corruption. 

We have just witnessed 5 years of major corruption free Governance. And this has come after the disastrous UPA 1 and 2, which was mired in scandals after scandal. People have not forgotten about the loot of Sonia Gandhi, Robert Vadra, Chidambaram, A Raja et al, and are relieved to have someone like Modi bring in a whiff of fresh air, and restore their faith in Politicians.

All the attempts by Rahul Gandhi to somehow find out corruption in Rafaele deal has fallen flat. The deal is clean as a whistle, and this has been ratified by CAG and Supreme Court.

By raising this issue in every electoral meeting, Rahul Gandhi is only drawing attention to his party's poor track record with respect to corruption and making Modi a taller figure.

The opposition just do not have a narrative. Their only objective is to target Modi personally, which is not working.

We have not seen an alternate vision of Governance or Concrete policies that will be put into place if UPA is voted back to power.

All we hear is X, Y , Z wanting to become the Prime Minister with outside support, for none in the opposition hopes to get a majority on their own.

Only BJP has the capability to get more than 250 seats in todays scenario.

Congress's best case scenario is 60-75, and every other opposition party expects nothing more than 25 seats on their own. How do you cobble up a majority of 272 with that?

Demonetization is long forgotten, and though many lost money during note ban, the silent majority is thankful to Modi for at least making these black money hoarders sweat and squirm for a few days.

GST has been a reasonable success, and people have begun to find out that they have more money at their disposal post GST implementation.

Swatch Bharath, 100% Electrification, Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme, Support income for farmers, Road laying has all produced visible benefits to the poor.

The disgruntled middle class, who were unhappy with Modi, is pacified with IT exemption till Rs 5 Lakhs.

And finally, Modi's strong stand against terrorist attack by Pakistan, and the Airforce strike deep inside Pakistan, has made Indians look up at others with Pride. 

Nationalism and Patriotism is such an emotive issue. And the electorate view Modi as the ultimate Nationalist and Patriot, while sniggering about the anti national stand taken by the opposition, who made the cardinal sin of questioning the Air Strikes and its efficacy.

Modi is a master orator and BJP is quick on its feet. See how the Mein Bhi Chowkidhar was launched which took the sting out of Chowkidhar Chor Hai campaign of the opposition. He will dominate the air waves, and will dictate the Agenda during the next 45 days.  No one in the opposition is a match for him. They can at best whine and take potshots.

As things stand today, I expect Modi to win seats comparable to what he did in 2014.

And that will be a big achievement in the absence of a wave.

P.S: It is amusing to see Opposition leaders helping each other only in the Constituencies they contest. SP-BSP supporting Sonia and Rahul in Rae Bareilli and Amethi, and Congress offering not to contest in the seats where SP-BSP leaders and their family is Contesting. This is the true face of dynastic politics.

Sunday 17 March 2019

This is possible only in Bharath, moulded by Hindu Culture

The McCaulay Putras/Putris who adorn the Luteyns wont understand this. They have a sense of entitlement and look down upon the common man from the "Bharath". 

For them, the achievers have to be English/Convent Educated, and studied abroad/JNU/ St. Stephens, speaking flawless english, and maintaining protocol that is approved by Western Countries.

Simple Indian gestures hold no meaning for them

It is why this is a great sight.

Saalumarada Thimmakka (Alada Marada Timakka) is an Indian environmentalist from Karnataka, noted for her work in planting and tending to 385 banyan trees along a four-kilometre stretch of highway between Hulikal and Kudur. She has also planted nearly 8000 other trees.

Thimmakka's story is that of grit and determination. She reportedly wanted to commit suicide when she was in her 40's as she was unable to bear a child. With the support of her husband, she found solace in planting trees.

She received no formal education and worked as a casual laborer in a nearbyy quarry. She was conferred Padma Shri by Government of India in 2019.

There is one minor point more - She is all of 107 years old.

The above is a wonderful sight.  The poor, weather beaten,  107 yrs old wisened, Padma-Award-Winner giving blessing to President of India in a public function, and President is accepting wholeheartedly and in a humble manner disregarding Protocol.

Her innocence is heart warming. She is not overwhelmed by the occasion or the fact that the person she is blessing is the First Citizen of India. It comes naturally to her to bless him, and the expression on the President's face clearly indicates how much he is moved by this.

This is the real India. This is the Hindu Culture. This is what is getting destroyed.

And it is possible only in India and with a Hindu President (from BJP/RSS background)!

Saturday 16 March 2019

Same Data, Different Interpretation and Contrasting Outcome

Sometime 1990's, the two major Aircraft manufacturers in the world Boeing and Airbus took major strategic decisions on the way forward. Both based their decision on the same traffic data and projections.

The outcome was interesting.

As any seasoned Air Traveler is aware, the Airlines fly on a hub and spoke model. There are flights from hub to hub,  then a changeover to the hub to spoke flights, and vice versa. Some of the major hubs are Dubai, Singapore, Colombo, Addis Ababa, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, London to name a few. 

Airbus interpreted the data and concluded that the future lies in long distance hub to hub flights, that can carry more number of people in a single flight, to reduce cost. They came up with Airbus A 380, the biggest Aircraft manufactured ever, that can carry 525 - 800 passengers depending on the configuration, with adequate comfort suitable for long haul flights. The first flight was in 2005, and the Aircraft was inducted commercially in 2007.

Boeing had a totally opposite view point. Their take was that the future of Airlines is in hub to spoke, or spoke to spoke short flights, and decided to go for lesser capacity, fuel efficient Aircraft - Boeing 787 Dream liner, which can carry 230-290 passengers. The test flight was in 2007, and the first commercial flight in 2009.

I remember discussing this as a case study in 2008 while teaching Strategic Management to MBA students. We had a healthy discussion then.

A decade down the line, Airbus has found out that their strategy was horribly wrong and decided to stop the production of A 380 from 2021. They sold just 234 A 380s, and once Emirates, their major customer decided against long haul flights, the goose was cooked.

Contrary to Airbus forecast, the customer preferred direct spoke to spoke flights, even if the flight were to be smaller and less comfortable. No one wanted 3-5 hours transit in another hub, but rather wanted to get to the destination ASAP.

A costly mistake for Airbus, as it takes 20 years to develop an Aircraft, and another 20 to recover the cost. They projected that 270 Aircraft was required for Break Even in 2005, and the market size was 1000 plus. Production delays, technical glitches, inadequacy of Airports capable of handling the giant A 380 all meant the break even figures went up to 420, which they never achieved. A 380 was perhaps the Ford Edsel moment for Airbus.

Boeing, on the other hand, is doing well with 787. They have already sold 789 Aircraft. Their Break even is slightly over 1000, which they are expected to achieve. They too had a host of issues, ranging from technical problems, faulty wiring to fuel leaks to fire. And delay in production. They have appeared to overcome these issues and should at least break even in the long run.

As I mentioned in my lectures way back in 2008, an interesting case study of interpretation of data.

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