Winds of Change in the Southern States

I spent a week in Kerala and Tamil Nadu recently. There is a surprise lack of buzz on the electioneering front, even on the last day of campaigning in Kerala. Perhaps it is due to the curb on election expenditure set by the Election Commission.

Kerala has always been strongly polarized between the Congress led UDF and the Communist led LDF. BJP has a good share of votes, but since they stand alone, and their voters are not concentrated, they were not able to win any seats so far in the State. LDF and UDF have tactically transferred votes in the past to keep BJP out in some of the seats in the past, which may happen again in Trivandrum and Kasargode this time around too.

But I detected a small undercurrent of change in Kerala. This could be due to the excitement generated by Modi, or could be due to the utter disgust of the electorate towards the antics of UDF and LDF.

On election day, couple of Engineering Students studying in Coimbatore, travelled all the way to Kunnamkulam ( 130 kms away) to exercise their franchise. What was remarkable was that they took this trouble to vote for BJP in a seat where BJP doesn't have a ghost of a chance of winning. When queried why they did this, they replied that 'they were making a statement, irrespective of who won'. If this is any indication, then we might see a consolidation of neutral votes behind BJP. They may still not win a seat (for that matter, it would be nice to have an election where all the parties stand on their own in Kerala, and then see where each one of them stand. Most of them are riding on the votes of their alliance partners)

Tamil Nadu case is a little different. A state that has seen none other than AIADMK or DMK or their alliance partners winning, could see for the first time a genuine 3rd front winning 4-5 seats - this is the alliance of BJP, MDMK, DMDK, PMK. With DMK likely to be decimated, and Congress not expected to even retain deposit, this front could move into the vacant space.

With BJP tying up with TDP in AP, slowly but surely BJP is getting a foot hold in the major Southern States.

This augurs well for the future for BJP, provided Modi delivers what he promises - Development