I was having a chat with a Teenage Girl who spent her vacation in India recently. Though a supporter of Modi, she had her concerns. She lives in a upper middle class apartment in Pune during the vacation, and she told the tenants were generally very anti Modi.
I had received similar feedbacks from other upper Middle Class sources too.
I am not worried. The mistake Vajpayee made was to pander to the fickle upper middle class, at the expense of the poor. The upper middle class doesnt matter, as they are only good for arm chair criticism, and rarely go out and vote.
What has been winning elections for Modi these past 3 years and what will win him the 2019 mandate (Dr. Praveen Patil of Fivefortythree, whom I respect for his psephology, claims BJP will win > 50% vote share in 2019) are the following, not necessarily in the order,
- Sowbhagya scheme of providing electricity to rural households and the target of 100% electrification of India
- Ujjwala Yojana that provides LPG connection to poor households
- Swatch Bharath aimed at building Toilets in every household and making the country Open Defecation Free
- Demonetization
I have personal anecdotal evidence in at least 3 of the 4 cases above how grateful people are regarding similar schemes
Let us take the Sowbhagya Scheme of Rural Electrification. I was the youngest son of a Father who was an Executive Engineer in Kerala State Electricity Board. The period was 1978 - 1982. Father was in charge of Chittur Division, in Kerala. In three years he worked hard to electrify all the villages under his Charge. I know for a fact, it was a first in Kerala, and am sure it will be one of the first in India itself. He never got any accolades for it. But, as a wide eyed young teenager, who used to tag along with his father on all his visits to these villages, and who was a part of the Switching on Ceremony that flooded the remote villages with Electricity (I was given the honour as a 14 year old boy of switching on the Transformer in some cases), I had seen the gratitude in the eyes of the old who have lived their life in darkness, and the thrill in the face of the young. You have to remember that this was the period before Television and Internet. The reception we got in these villages were unbelievable. My father, a Brahmin, was reverently called Swamy, and he was akin to God to many of these simple villagers.
There is a post script to this. My father retired in 1985. It was sometime in 1991, me and my father got out of our Volkswagon Beetle, and were crossing the road in Palghat town, when three rural men, rushed across the street, and with utmost respect asked my father whether he remembered them. He had a phenomenal memory. He immediately recognized them as from a Village he electrified during his tenure. They again expressed their gratefulness to him, and told him how his initiative changed their lives forever. One guy proudly said his childrens academic performance improved dramatically after electrification, and his son was doing Engineering in a reputed Government College, and daughter was doing her Post Graduation in Palghat. Normally an unemotional man, I could see that my father was moved that he could touch the lives of many people. He murmured that he only did his duty, and politely took leave of those good men.
Regarding LPG, I know personally how LPG in 1972, when we moved to Palghat from Vadakara, made my Mother's life easier. Earlier she used to struggle with Pressure stove and wick stove. And much earlier, she used Firewood. In 1989, when I joined Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, as a Sales Office in charge of Coimbatore Sales Area, LPG was just getting popular. Many rural households were reluctant to use LPG, as they feared the Gas Cylinder would explode. I had run campaigns educating these poor women, and slowly they started to adapt to LPG. Then something changed, and within 2 years, there was a massive explosion of demand, and LPG connections were in short supply. But I still vividly remember those poor rural women, who were uncertain about using LPG, eagerly listening to my lecture demonstration in Tamil and their apprehensive questions about safety. What still lingers in my mind is the chatter among themselves after the event, and a new found determination to conquer the fear of the unknown. I am sure use of LPG changed their lives for ever, as it did for my mother couple of decades earlier. During these Lecture-Demonstrations, I would exhort that girls ready for marriage should not agree for marriage unless it is ensured that her husband has a LPG connection. The girls would snigger, but I can clearly recall the steely determination and agreement in the eyes of their mother, who understood the implications of the point I just made.
Most of the poor households in rural india have one or two small rooms, and no separate kitchen. Using firewood fills the room with smoke, makes it dirt and leads to health problems associated with air pollution. I am sure Modi will have their gratitude.
The Toilet issue also brings to my mind memories of my childhood. We always had clean toilets. But my grandparents lived in an Agraharam (Village) where there was only one toilet, which was in abysmal condition. You wouldnt dare enter the toilet, because it was pathetic. I was asked my father to go and stay with my grandparents for at least 2-3 days a week, and I would dread at the prospect of using that toilet. Most of the time, I wouldn't and return home with severe constipation, or stomach cramps. My grandfather never used the toilet and used to defecate in the open. This caused us
considerable embarrassment whenever he visited us, and complaints would flood in from people in the neighbourhood. I was a frequent traveler by train in my youth, and the number of people defecating in the open along Railway Tracks always made me angry. I could see ladies getting up hurriedly whenever the train passes them, protecting their modesty. It still remains a matter of shame. If, in 3 years, Modi's team could build millions of toilets and expect every house to have a toilet in another 2 years, imagine what we could have done in 70 years if only we had the will!
Much has been written about Demonetization. For me it is simple. The poor were watching in angst at the powerful and corrupt amassing wealth, and investing in real estate and Gold, living a lavish life style well above their means, and they were burning with fury. They were helpless. They couldnt even buy a few cents of land, as the prices have sky rocketed. They happily stood in the queue to change their few Rs 1000 notes, but watched in glee as the powerful and corrupt were running for cover. Most approached them with folded hands to allow them to use the poor guys bank account. The poor never expected to see the powerful and corrupt to be brought down to earth overnight, or in their lifetime, and they gave a big thumbs up to Modi.
Add to the above, a Corruption free government, new roads, projects being completed on time, visible signs of infrastructure development around them, the poor and downtrodden never had it so good.
They are the core constituency of Modi and his trump card.
