Saturday 14 May 2011

A Take on Assembly Elections

The results of this round of Assembly elections, and the previous ones clearly indicate that the average voter is demanding Governance and accountability. While they accept a certain level of corruption, they are not prepared to accept those who loot the country.

The latest round of election results was a test case for the Congress and the UPA. The left secular brigade of the Congress has been brainwashing Sonia and Rahul (or the other way around), that the way to win elections is to indulge in populism, giving freebies and not to bother about development. This was the mantra used by Indira Gandhi to great effect in 1970s. But 2011 is not 1970. TV, Internet and Mobile has empowered the people with information. They are hearing and seeing how good the governance in other parts of the Country and compare it with theirs. If freebies can win election, DMK should have won hands down,because frankly they have really masterd the art of giving free color TVs, LPG Stoves, rice at Rs 2 etc and 100% of the people have availed this. But still they got routed.

Many attribute corruption and bad governance to DMKs rout. This is a convenient explanation and may not be true. While no one can deny that there was a mood against the DMK, the inherent Vote Share of the AIADMK front was higher to start with, with AIADMK having 32% and DMDK of Vijayakanth 10%. As against this the Congress vote share claim of 10% was an exaggeration. It was more like 5%. With DMKs 35 % core votes, cumulatively they were always playing catch up. This is what happened to NDA in 2004 and why UPA won in 2009. The alliance vote share was higher. The only debatable point is that the DMK-Congress front did not get any of the marginal votes - votes that are not normally dedicated to either parties.

In Kerala, CPM must be wondering 'if only we had not had the infighing between the CM and the Party'. The issues took up by VS Achuthanandan struck a chord in the minds of the people. It was dear to their hearts. VS is an old communist - a dying breed that understood the aspirations of the common man and the poor. Unlike Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, Pinarai Vijayan coterie, VS knows what people want and they see in him a leader who is willing to fight their battle. He did it when he was in the opposition and when he was a CM, but was shackled by the party. The LDF had done sterling development work that targetted the poorer 40% of the society - a category that is often neglected and paid lip service by the national parties. But still LDF lost because people expected /demanded more development. But there is no disgrace in this defeat.

For Congress, these results are a huge set back. In Calcutta, Mamata dont need them any more. Nor is she keen on continuing in the centre,as she doesnt want another power centre in the Trinamool in Delhi. She will pull out at the first opportunity. DMK wanted Congress in TN as they were depending on the outside support of Congress in the State. This is not true anymore. If Congress continue to humiliate DMK and fail to protect Kanimozhi or Rajathi Ammal from the law, then they will see no benefit in continuing at the Centre. Kerala has shown that people are not enthused by Congress and Jagan smashed them in AP. Even in Karnataka, they lost all the 3 bye elections to the beleagured Yeduriappa. With Manmohans image in tatters, and Rahul Gandhi proving to be more of a liability (all the cadidates he chose personally and campaigned for lost spectacularly in Kerala and TN) this could be the beginning of the end for Congress.

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