Shifting of power

The politicians are scared of the Anna Hazare Movement.

It is not because they fear the proposed Lokpal will put an end to their corruption. With no reforms in the judiciary or police in the vicinity, and with our justice system and police totally impotent in getting conviction for the guilty in anything less than 20 years, the politicians need not have any fear of cooling their heels for a stretch of time.

If you dont believe me, just have a look at some of the high profile cases. A Raja is out on bail and his case has not even come to trial, and is not likely to for the next 3 years. Ditto for Kanimozhi. The Election malpractice case against P Chidambaram is not likely to be sorted out before the next elections. By the time P Chidambaram would have already taken many important decisions as Home Minister and as Finance Minister in the future, affecting our lives, when he has no right to do so. How about the Adrash housing society case or for that matter the open and shut case against Suresh Kalmadi, who virtually looted India as head of the Organizing Committee for the Commonwealth Games. And someone like Sheila Dikshit is not even being booked, and she is as guilty as Kalmadi. Has Lallu been convicted on the fodder scam or Rajiv Gandhi on Bofors? And less said about Sonia, Rahul, Robert Vadra, Sharad Pawar, Yeduyuriappa, Jayalalitha, Mayawathi, Mulayam et al the better.

As I said, the politicians are not worried about a fall in their 'real income' or about them being convicted.

But they are worried about the balance of power shifting to the people. The Right to Information Act has already caused much heartburn amongst the powers that be. RTI activists have really used it to bring many shady dealings to light, and the people feel more empowered. But possessing information of a misdeed or corruption is one thing, and getting people punished for it is another.

This is where Lokpal comes in. If it is really implemented, the power will shift dramatically to the people. The politicians over the years have formed a nice club, where the motto is 'you scratch my back and I will scratch yours'. Though some token cases are taken against political opponents, care is taken that the investigating agencies botch up the investigation to such an extend that, the only purpose of these cases is to use them as a weapon of blackmail against political opponents in times of need, and nothing more.

But a powerful Lokpal will change all that. The politician-crooked businessmen nexus will be broken and many reputations will take a beating. The aura created by the politicians as some one who is regal and above the poor man will be shattered, and once it is shattered, the fear and awe the common man will have for the politicians will be gone for ever, resulting in a powershift, which the politicians dont want to happen.

Hence their concerted effort to thwart the Anna moment.

Anbu Thollai!!

One of the things I miss in Gulf is the hospitality of the simple rural folk of India. Maybe because I have never been out of the Capital City of Muscat, I have not had a chance to experience the hospitality of the rural Omanis. But one thing I can say is that the hospitality of the fellow Indians in Gulf is miserable. Everything is artificial. One feels unwanted when one visits another apartment of a fellow Indian.

Years ago, when I was a Sales Officer in Coimbatore in early 1990s, I had a travelling job, overseeing the performance of Gas Stations (Petrol Pumps) in Coimbatore and the rural area surrounding it. The hospitality of Coimbatore people is legendary. They get offended if you dont drink the coffee offered, and they stuff you to the hilt if given a chance. Since I visit at least 5-7 Petrol pumps every day, and 4-5 Industrial customers, I had to drink innumerable number of coffees every day, spoiling my appettite. If I refuse the Coffee and the snacks, the dealer is hurt and takes it as a personal affront. When I confided this to a friend of mine, he gave me, what he thought, was a brilliant idea. He advised me to tell the dealers that I am under homeo treatment, and as such has to avoid Coffee and Tea. I put this into practice, without realising what this will lead to. All the dealers were pained to hear I was under treatment, but they just had to make me drink something. Coimbatore-Pollachi-Udumalpet belt is famous for Tender Coconuts. The speciality of the Pollachi tender coconut (which used to cost Rs 2 those days) was that they were HUGE. Each tender coconut containted at least 3 full glasses of tender coconut water. Imagine drinking 8-9 like this every day. I just couldnt refuse this offer as tender coconut is ideal for homeo patients!!!!. Since mine was a travelling job, I had to stop the car every 20 minutes to take a leak, like a dog will do!!! After 3 months of this 'anbu thollai' ( loosely translated 'nuisance love'), I suddenly announced that I was cured fully, and as such could now drink coffee and tea. But the loving dealers will have none of it!! They used to advise me to avoid coffee and tea, and stick to tender coconut, a much healthier drink. I still fondly remember the love and affection of the Coimbatore dealers who pumped me with tender coconut water 20 years ago!

Much earlier than this, when I was a young kid, I used to go with my father, who as in charge of rural electrification. And we did really to to some remote nook and corner of Palghat district. Late 1970s and early 80s, Pepsi and Coke were unheard of. Even Gold Spot, Thumps Up or Limca were available in District Head Quarters. The luxury drink in the rural areas was the 'Colour'. This was offered to only VVIPs, as it cost them 30 ps , as against a soda that cost 15 ps. This was nothing but aerated sweetnened colour water (Well!! this is what Coke and Pepsi is, isnt it?), filled in a 'goli soda bottle'. God only knows what were the ingredients of it. But you had to feel the love in the voice of the poor villager when he sends an errand boy to get 'Sir and his son Colour'!. And he and the other villagers would swell in pride when they see us drink it!!

Where has that life gone?

Changing World Structure and an unchanging India

The last two decades have seen the death of 'isms'.

Communism died with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the advent of perestroika in the USSR. The Capitalists rejoiced with the hope of creating a Global Capitalist Economy. Globalization, Privatization and Liberalization were rammed down the throat of the Developing Countries by the so called Developed Countries, who gloated at the prospect of controlling the global economy and living on the fruits of the cheap labour in the 3rd world countries. The Developed Capitalist Countries thought they had deep pockets, and their financial clout shall give them the controlling power over the rest of the world.

Lehman Brothers changed all that. The Sub-prime crisis and ensuing financial meltdown, showed the Capitalist Countries for what they are - countries full of hot air balloon, living on borrowed money and spending way beyond their means. All it requires to destroy a hot air balloon is one prick with a needle. The Lehman Brothers was the prick that destroyed the Capitalism for ever.

High Debt, negative Balance of Payments, rising unemployment, increase immigration, falling standards of living, no core competencies - these are the hallmarks of the Capitalist Countries now.

Greed and insensitiveness of the powers that be destroyed Communism. Greed and insensitiveness of the Bankers and politicians destroyed Capitalism.

The Developed Countries are going back to nationalism, protectionism. US has announced a series of initiatives to spur local entrepreneurship. France is looking inwards. As do many of the Eurozone countries. Even the GCC countries are going in for a purge of expat population by increasing local recruitment.

In this scenario, perhaps the only country that cares a fig for the nationals and their well being is India, under the current Government. We are still talking of FDI, FII, Nuclear Deal, opening up the Economy, killing local entrepreneurship through high interest rates and red tapism. Instead of chasing FDI, all the Government had to do is reduce the flight of capital. In 70s and 80s, we were worried about the flight of intellectual capital. Now, our industrialists are investing everywhere in the world, except India. And we dont do anything about it.

The foreign media yesterday called Manmohan Singh the poodle of Sonia Gandhi. At least the poodles do no harm and are adorable. The same cannot be said of MMS.

It is two weeks since MMS took over the Finance Ministry and asked us to liberate our animal spirit. Only problem is he didnt mention which animal. Perhaps guinnea pigs or white rats, who allow themselves to be used as experimental speciman by the rich scientists? In any case, MMS  hasnt shown any leadership during the two weeks he is at the helm of the Finance Ministry. Is it a clear indication that the mess is much bigger than it is? I guess so.

Globalization - Dealth Kneww

Globalization, as a concept, lasted barely 2 decades. It was an imperative for the strong Western Economies to cover up their weakness - rising wages and higher cost of production. Riding on the ability of their financial institutions misplaced ability to offer them unlimited credit, which was used by consumers and corporates for spending indiscriminately, pushing up the consumption and cost of goods/services, the West saw an opportunity in exploiting the cheap labour in 3rd World Countries as an alternative to get away from their high wages production scenario.

By pumping in FDI and FII, they thought they could control all the 3rd world countries through their financial might, forgetting that they were slowly getting into a debt trap themselves. The financial clout of the West was akin to a Ponzi scheme. It was bound to break down one day. And it did during the Global Financial melt down of 2008.

The West thought that their core competencies were in the areas of Finance and Intellectual superiority that led to them having a critical edge in the area of technological innovation, which they used to sell to the third world at a premium.

But the 3rd world, and mainly the emerging economies, were street smart. They invested in technical education and with slick marketing shifted the focus away from long lasting technoligally superior products to short shelf life, functional products which did not require high technology R&D.  The positive balance of payments obtained through export earnings, and the shifting of the focus from high tech, ensured the West losing its edge in one stroke. And with their own unlimited credit availability at risk, due to the poor health of their financial system, the West has no place to hide.

So what is the future? West will continue to crumble as their foundations are weak. Will it mean the 3rd World countries will replace them. It is unlikely, as the consumption levels of 3rd world is very poor. There is a real fear that the 3rd world producing countries might end up with higher inventory due to poor offtake, damaging their economies.

What is required is some visionary to take the lead to improve consumption. India was ideally placed for that role. Unfortunately, typical of us, we have missed the bus, as in the past.