Recession Ahoy!!

All indicators point to a recession in Indian Economy.

The current growth rate is not sustainable. The raising of CRR by RBI has squeezed the liquidity out of the system. There just isn't enough money floating around.

The consumption has shown a marked decrease in growth during 2007. It has started hurting industrial production. Export has slowed down as pending orders are executed and hardly any new orders have been signed during the past 6 months. The blue eyed baby, IT Exports, has been hit badly by the Rupee appreciation. Public investments in real rupee terms has not increased substantially. Investments in Capital Intensive Industries are likely to slow down as threat of excess capacity loom large as investments are market driven.

The burgeoning forex reserves is more due to higher rates of interest prevalent here and cannot be counted upon. The impact of high oil prices on economy will be felt by around now. A hike in fuel prices post Gujarat elections is on the cards.

Disinvestments and financial sector reforms are on hold. With uncertainty over the survival of the Government anticipated post Gujarat elections, implementation of already announced schemes is likely to become tardy. Lack of leadership at the top has started hurting the economy.

With the US economy entering a definite recession, its impact on the Indian Economy will be adverse. Rupee will continue to appreciate against Dollar and is predicted to touch the Rs 35 mark in the near term. This will further hamper exports.

Finally, though the official inflation figures show a level of comfort, the ground reality is different. Prices of essential commodities are on an all time high. This will ensure that more money will be spent on consumption than on savings.

Bold policy initiatives are the need of the hour. But we cant even expect to dream about it from Dr.Manmohan Singh's Government.

"Easwaro Rakshathu"

When was the last time...............................?

When was the last time you said with all your heart "Thank You"?

When was the last time you said to anyone" I appreciate what you have done for me"?

When was the last time you said " I love you" to your spouse?

When was the last time you called up your parents and said " I am what I am because of you, thanks. I love you"?

When was the last time you waited an extra second to let go a car in the traffic?

When was the last time you helped a Stranger?

When was the last time you went out of the way to help a colleague?

When was the last time you read a bed time story to your child or hugged him/her?

When was the last time you sat with your teen aged boy/girl and listened to his/her dreams?

When was the last time you appreciated your wife's cooking?

When was the last time you bought a surprise gift for anyone?

When was the last time you invited a guest for lunch or dinner?

When was the last time you took pains to teach someone something/anything?

When was the last time you spoke positively about someone?

When was the last time you went to visit an ailing acquaintance to cheer him/her up?

and...................................

When was the last time you prayed thanking the God for what he has done rather than asking him what you want?


If you have not done ALL of the above during the course of the past one week, I feel sorry for you

Life is Beautiful!

I was in Centre Point today morning to buy some winter clothings. I saw an attractive T-Shirt on the shelf. Normally CentrePoint keeps some sample sizes on the hangar for people to try out. This is to prevent people from soiling all the dresses. Unable to find one of similar size on the hangar, I called across to a Philippino Sales Lady and asked her whether I can get one to try the size. She asked me to take one from the shelf. I responded "I don't want to give you additional work. If you have one on the hangar, I would rather try it than make you fold the one on the shelf again". The look on her face was one of sheer happiness, relief and amazement. She came to me crossing two rows with a huge smile and saying, "Sir, that is first nice thing I have heard in this job for a long, long time. Some one genuinely cares for my work", she personally took out my size from the shelf, removed the packaging and opened it out for me to try with a huge huge smile. On my way to trying out the T Shirt for size, while I was happy that I gave her something to cheer about (though what I did to make her so happy, I still could not fathom), it left me wondering as to why is it that such a small comment made a big impact on her. Is it that she is treated shabbily in the workplace and by customers? Is it that customer take sales people for granted and order them around?. Why can't we all show a bit of humaneness and old world courtesy in our interactions?. The world will be a much better place.

In the afternoon, I had gone despite poor health, to honour a friends invitation to attend his company's social responsibility campaign on plastics at Avenues. On the way back, I stopped for fueling. It was one of those self service stations where you have to pay the money at the exit. There was a 4 lane queue all converging in front of the cash counter. I saw an old man in a GMC on my left and out of courtesy to an elderly person, I waved him to go ahead. Next thing I felt was a slight bump. The guy behind me had deliberately bumped me to show his protest. Since my car is old and identifying another scratch would have meant resurrecting Sherlock Holmes, I did not react. Once I paid the bill, this guy overtook me, cut in front of me, shook his fist and drove off. That was the thanks I got for being courteous to an old man.

Life is Beautiful!!!!

Stand out. Don't be part of a Herd

A city bred mathematics teacher was posted to a rural school. On his first day he asked the class,

“There are 100 sheep in a pen. If one were to walk out, how many remain?”

Bang came the answer

“ None “

Teacher was aghast,

“ You don’t know how to count. If one goes out, 99 will remain.”

“But you don’t know anything about the sheep. If one walks, the entire lot follows”, replied the street smart class.

Even humans have the herd mentality. But, while investing, always disregard the majority opinion (Zurich Axiom 10). It is invariably wrong. Never follow speculative fads. The best time to buy a share could possibly be when no one wants it.

Don't Marry your Stock

Ever heard of the modern day Ant and the Grasshopper story?

“One day, a tiny ant, was seen busily digging up the earth, preparing for her a cosy anthill, for the approaching winter. She toiled through the summer season, selecting a nice little corner for her anthill, where the mud was loose and amenable and big human feet would be far away. She set at her task through night and day, tirelessly. Near her slowly growing anthill, was a tree on which a grasshopper lived. But, he was a wanderer. He flew to warmer climes when the winter draught crept in and lived off the blades of grass and berries of whichever land he happened to be.

As he watched the ant, building her home, he felt sorry for her. He knew that a day would come when the poor ant's anthill would be wiped off. And sure enough, it happened. A few days later, a huge lawn mower came to the park and a heap of grass was flung right atop the ant's anthill! The poor ant was crushed to death along with her anthill. The grasshopper mourned her for a day and then flew on…"

One of the first lessons to be learned in the investment game is to, move here and there. Look for greener pastures to feed on. If you hold on to your stocks for long, the likelihood is that when the crash comes, it will wipe out everything you have built!

Don’t marry your stock. Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion. (Zurich Axiom 6)

Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. You do not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping-pong ball. All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds for and against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons. But when a venture is clearly souring, or when something clearly more promising comes into view, then you must sever those roots and go. Don’t let the roots get too thick to cut.

Of Hairy matters

When I was a kid, I had to endure a monthly ritual - hair cutting. All of us young kids will be rounded up by our grand father under a banyan tree and made to sit on a rickety wooden chair holding a small mirror on our hands. Perumal, our barber, will cut our hair as close to the scalp as possible under the stern eyes of the grand father. No amount of pleading to leave the hair a bit long will move our Grand father. Once the cutting is over (well it was one step ahead of being having a clean bald plate), water will be poured over our head prior to us being allowed to enter the house.

The guy, Perumal, was a specimen. Tall, fat, with hair pleated in the middle, sporting a Hitler moustache and round thick black framed glasses, he had a sinister look. His loyalty was to the grandfather and we were mere worms in his eyes. While cutting the hair, he will gossip non stop about the people nearby to my Grandfather, with least importance given to the quality of hair cutting. Nicks and bleeding were norms than exception. He used to charge a measly 4 annas (equal to 25 paise) per hair cut. Oh! how we kids hated him.

Then one day, he came to our house and declared that he will not be coming anymore to our house as he has opened a small one seater barber shop across the road. We were invited for the inauguration and there it was in all its glory. A small shop with wooden removable planks as doors, a thick wooden chair, with some mirrors. Perumals Barber Shop has taken off. One up for entrepreneurship. The cost of a hair cut was written in bold letters in a black board as 50 paise (100% inflation).

Time flew. About a decade later, I was in the college, and Perumal had sort of semi retired. His son found out to his dismay that the market potential in the nearby Palghat town, about 22 kms away, was much better. Off he went to Palghat (now called Palakkad), found a shop which was available for sale and purchased it ( my first exposure to Acquisition!!!). Now called 'Star Haircutting Saloon', the shop was in a prime location, had 3 full fledged Barber chairs with lots of mirrors, a music set blaring film songs all the time, some old magazines (why barber shops and doctors waiting rooms still have 3 month old magazines is still a mystery to me), driers, curlers and what not. That was the time when teenagers were sporting step cut, wearing long hairs and were very conscious of their hair. The cost of a hair cut has increased to Rs 2 by then.

In the years to come, I saw the business growing with the ubiquitous cable TV replacing the music system, saloon offering additional services like facials, bleaching, hair colouring etc.

I left Palakkad in search of my destiny and rarely visited this saloon for almost a decade and a half. When I went back recently, I wanted to have a haircut and obviously made it a point to go to a saloon which I was familiar with. I couldn't recognize it. The shop has been modernized beyond imagination. The name has been changed to 'Men's beauty parlour'. There was a neon sign board, the shop has been expanded by acquiring the nearby shops, now it had 12 chairs and looked high tech. The third generation of Perumal Family was running the show.

I had my hair cut, paid Rs 50 and was about to leave when a guy in his mid 20's stopped me at the exit. He looked strangely familiar. He gave me a visiting card which had 2 mobile numbers and said " Sir, we offer home service now. Just give us a call on this mobile numbers and we will be in your house within one hour and the charges are Rs 100 per hair cut". I looked up at him with an amused look. The guy was having long brownish hair pleated at the middle, was wearing a round frame less glass, was a little plump and had a thick moustache. If only he had the Hitler moustache, he would have looked exactly like his grandfather Perumal.

I thanked him and walked off. But couldn't help wondering. "What the heck! Home Service! This was exactly what your grand father was doing 3 decades ago and that too for 25 paise. The world has come a full circle and I now have to pay Rs 100 for the same service that I used to get all those years ago.

As I said earlier, 'The more things change, the more they remain the same'

What is Professionalism?

A personal blog serves as a forum not only to air my views on various issues but also to share interesting stories and information I may have come across, with my readers. I was really impressed by the following real life story that carries a wonderful message. I read this in http://www.rediff.com/

Professionalism = more than just doing your job -Dennis Snow

"I don't like to shop. Clothes shopping, grocery shopping, car shopping; it doesn't matter -- I don't like it. I want to get in, get what I want (fast), and get out. A recent shopping experience, however, was a pleasant surprise.

This experience showcased customer service at its best, and at its most simple. Once again I was reminded that great service isn't about grand acts, it is about common courtesy, artfully delivered.

While on vacation in Chicago, I needed to buy a pair of casual shoes (I had forgotten mine). I found myself in a store called the Walking Company. A friend once told me it was a good store. It was crowded, so I almost left. But one of the salespeople made eye contact with me. It wasn't the kind of eye contact that said, "Oh no, another customer." Instead, it was eye contact that said, "I'll be right with you." It was good eye contact.

So I browsed around for a few minutes and found a pair of shoes I liked. Sure enough, the salesperson came up and said, "Sorry about the wait, let's get you some shoes." I showed her the pair I wanted and asked to try size 10. She said, "Let's measure your foot just to make sure." I know I wear size 10, but her whole demeanour showed that she wanted to make sure I got the right shoes.

She measured my foot and said, "Size 10 is right, but you have a very 'Rubenesque' foot. The type of shoe you've selected won't be the most comfortable for you. I think this other style would feel much better."

Being the sceptic that I am, I looked at the price of her suggested shoes to see how much she was upselling me. Same price. Hmm. With nothing to lose, I tried on the style she suggested, and they were extremely comfortable. I must admit: they are the most comfortable pair of casual shoes I've ever owned.

As I paid for the shoes, the salesperson continued to wow me. She said, "If you ever buy a pair of shoes somewhere else be sure to tell the salesperson that the arches in your foot have fallen a little, and you need shoes with some arch support -- like these."

When I get good service like this, I want to keep it going. I asked her if there is a Walking Company in Orlando, where I live. "Absolutely, it's at the Millennium Mall." Since then I've bought two pairs of dress shoes at the Orlando Walking Company, again with great service. I can't imagine buying shoes anywhere else. And I've sent plenty of friends there."

Now, let's look at what this salesperson did that made this a great shopping experience. I'll analyse the details in a moment, but one word sums up her style -- professional. This lady was a professional in every sense of the word. Her skills would apply anywhere, as applicable in a bank, hospital, theme park, or law office as they are in a shoe store.

Here are four universal traits of a professional in any job position:

Professionals are responsive: When I entered the store, the salesperson made immediate eye contact with me. It was sincere eye contact that said she cared that I was there. And as soon as she was finished with her customer she came right over to help me and apologised for the wait. The store was busy. But I noticed that everyone was being helped. The salespeople had mastered the art of handling more than one customer at a time while making each customer feel like he/she was the only one. None of the salespeople looked frantic, just responsive.

Professionals are knowledgeable: This salesperson knew about shoes. On the other hand, I know very little about shoes. Seeing that this was the case, she took charge of the situation and made sure that I was getting shoes that were right for me. I benefited from her knowledge. There is an art to sharing knowledge, I admit. Some customers may say, "I know what I want. Just get it for me." By briefly talking to me, however, she realised she could make a recommendation for me, that I was flexible. Professionals read the situation and adapt to the personality and needs of the customer. Of course, all of this means knowing your product. Professionals are constantly learning about their products and their customers. The only way that the Walking Company salesperson could steer me to the right pair of shoes was by knowing shoes and feet. Professionals know their stuff.

Professionals care about what they do: My Walking Company salesperson could have easily brought me the pair of shoes I originally asked for. But she wasn't selling shoes -- she was selling the right shoes . That's the difference. Professionals aren't happy just selling a product. They want it to be the right product for the customer.

Professionals teach you something: I left the Walking Company knowing more than when I walked in. I now know to ask for extra arch support in my shoes. Not a big deal, but I will always remember that advice.Think of some of your best service experiences: the waiter who made the perfect recommendation, the computer help desk that gave you a tip on how to make an application more effective, or the clothing store employee who helped you coordinate colours. In most cases of outstanding service, the employee left you more knowledgeable than when he/she found you. The new information might not change your life (though it could), but it does make your life a tad better.

Professional behaviours are simple. What's not simple is the consistent application of them. Being a true professional takes thought and effort. But, once you are truly professional you can go just about anywhere.The skills are universal, and they are rare. True professionals stand out from the crowd and grow rewarding and satisfying careers. And the customers of the world know when one is at work.

(Dennis Snow is the president of Snow & Associates, Inc. He worked with the Walt Disney World Company for 20 years and now consults with organisations around the world helping them achieve their customer service goals. He is the author of the book, Unleashing Excellence -- The Complete Guide to Ultimate Customer Service)

One need not confine the philosophy of making the other person a little more knowledgable to a Sales interaction alone. If we can extend this to each and every single interaction in our life, it will make life more meaningful apart from leaving a lasting impression on the other persons mind. I try to do that. Why don't you too?