Friday 6 August 2010

A new world order in the making

Unfortunately, there is a hype that what is good for the West (read US and Europe) is good for the World. And anything that affects the Western economy catastrophic. This is quite untrue.

When the Argentinian currency crisis happened in 1990s, followed by the Far East Asian currency crisis (both incidently happened only because those countries followed the Western country led World Bank policies of opening up the economy when they were not quite ready), the West gave gratituous advice as to how to manage the deficit, how to tighten the financial system and how to open up the economy further. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, with Western economies proving to be financially indisciplined, running trillions of dollars of debt (in some cases more than 100% of their GDP) no one is speaking to drastric solutions and need for fiscal discipline. The US managed to temporarily stave off a currency collapse by printing more dollars, which I suspect Europe will also do in the medium term. The crux of the matter is that Western Economies are unsustainable if they follow their current model, which is heavily consumption and services based. The estern economies are sustained  by the Eastern Savings. Eastern countries are looking at improving their own consumption levels to avoid what happened to Japan during the past two decades. India is already showing signs of increase in consumption, which is one of the reason for the current inflationary pressure. With economy in a downward spiral, Western customers will spend less and less, leading to lesser consumption and ultimately the East/ other emerging economies like China, India, Latin America, Africa, will lose interest in the West altogether. A new world order is likely to emerge during the next quarter of a century.

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