Monday, 25 February 2019

Modi and Shah turned things around quickly in a Month

A month is a long time in Politics.

The media, which is biased against Modi, was going ga-ga over Mahagadbandhan, Rahul Gandhis new found charisma, Priyanka Vadras 'political entry', SP-BSP Alliance in UP, BJPs lack of allies,  all backed by rigged opinion polls showing Modis declining popularity, and BJP unable to reach 250 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Congress tried its best to prop up Gadkari as an acceptable alternative to Modi.

Since I am from Kerala, everyone in my circles, were happy with Modi losing, and were cock-a-hoop.

I just told them "Just wait till Modi and Amit Shah get into the action"

They pooh-poohed me.

And then Modi and Shah really got into action.

First, they took the wind out of the opposition by introducing 10% reservation for the Economically backward, followed by raising IT limit to Rs 5 Lakhs. Then they announced support to farmers with low land holding with a  direct benefit of Rs 6000 per year. The media, which has no access to governmental decisions these days before they are announced (where has investigative journalism gone to?), and Opposition Parties were caught rocking on their heels. They just couldn't react against these moves, for fear of losing votes. Government did not just announce these schemes, but followed the announcement with speedy implementation, showing that these were planned well in advance but kept as a secret.

Opposition panicked and how.

To regain the space lost, Mamta went on a fast to prevent CBI from questioning the Calcutta City Commissioner of Police. Whatever little credibility she had, she lost by enacting this farce. The Opposition parties were forced to support her, and this made them a laughing stock. They were seen to be with the corrupt, and not with poor people who lost their all in the Chit Fund Scam.

With BSP and SP kicking out Congress in UP, the Mahagadbandhan became a stillborn baby. 

In the meanwhile, Amit Shah got to work.  He quietly finalized the Alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. With JD(U) already an Alliance partner in Bihar, and Akali Dal in Punjab BJP are in a strong position. Add to this Jaganmohan Reddy in AP and Chandrasekara Rao in Telengana, assuring post poll support, BJP has all their bases covered. They are strong in North East in any case. The best thing that could have happened to Modi was BJP losing in MP, Rajasthan and Karnataka. In a few months, people saw the alternative to BJP and they are not amused. Kamal Nath, HD Kumaraswamy are unmitigated disasters, and Gehlot just marginally better. In Karnataka, Congress is discredited, having come out as poor alliance partners, who could not be trusted. Kamal Naths' arrival coincided with Urea shortage in MP and people are not amused. If BJP had won in these states, they would have had to handle the anti-incumbency. Now the ire is against the current governments. 

And add to oppositions miseries, Pakistani Terrorists attacked CRPF jawans and killed them. The nation was enraged. They just got behind Modi instantaneously, and gave him their full support. They wanted Kashmir cleaned up, and Pakistan taught a lesson. Modi is getting his act together in Kashmir, and Army, any day will teach Pakistan a lesson. Another thing to be noted here is that Elections may be deferred in Kashmir, which means a reduction of 6 Loksabha seats. Modi will require only 537/2 = 268 MPs for a majority. Even the worst biased poll in December gave him 220-240. With the current developments, my take is that Modi will easily cross 320.

And that is good for India for the next decade. We will see the development works speeding up, as the economic correction needed has been done, and the Government is flush with funds. The foundation was laid during the past five years, and a re-elected Modi will be bolder and stronger.

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