Many things we foresee in market place dont happen when we think it ought to.
I had predicted to my Cable TV operator in India, way back in 1995, that Cable TV (by which I dont mean satellite TV, but the business model in which a Cable operator supplies to multiple houses) will be a thing of the past by the millineum - to be replaced by Direct To Home television (DTH). The exhorbitant cost of owning a DTH delayed its oncoming by a decade. With Cable operators getting greedy and increasing the monthly rates and with DTH prices coming down drastically, the demise I predicted is finally about to happen.
I had predicted to my Cable TV operator in India, way back in 1995, that Cable TV (by which I dont mean satellite TV, but the business model in which a Cable operator supplies to multiple houses) will be a thing of the past by the millineum - to be replaced by Direct To Home television (DTH). The exhorbitant cost of owning a DTH delayed its oncoming by a decade. With Cable operators getting greedy and increasing the monthly rates and with DTH prices coming down drastically, the demise I predicted is finally about to happen.
One of my students did a project on M-Commerce in 2004. We were gung-ho about the prospects of mobile commerce then and predicted that it will revolutionize the way we purchase things. We had predicted then that in a few years we will be ordering through mobile, making payments through it and all we have to do is collect the product. We had also envisaged mobile as a E-wallet, replacing the credit cards. But six years on there is no sign of M-Commerce picking up and the product is nearly dead.
Segway, the personal transporter, was another product that was expected to alter the mobility landscape. Technical and reliability problems, and a high price tag killed the product.
Electric cars replacing Petrol driven vehicles have been talked about since I was doing my MBA. Quarter of a century later, we are still only talking about it, and nothing else.
Video telephony is another concept that was expected to make a significant breakthrough during the last decade. We are still quite far away from making that a commodity product.
Teacher less global education through web - still a long way off. The good old teacher, with all his/her limitations giving lecture is still quite popular. Concepts like E-tuition all died a quiet death after a brief flaring.
Demise of Radio was another prediction that has gone awry. The FM revolution has revived Radio like nothing else. The popularity of local FM stations in rural india needs to be seen to be believed.
Only thing predictable about Market place is that it is unpredictable.
