All it requires is one push from India

By adopting Defensive Offense, India has created a paradigm shift in its war against terror, sponsored by Pakistan.

It is no secret that Pakistan has been training, funding and providing logistic support to terrorist to infiltrate and create havoc in India since 1990s. Bleeding India by 1000 cuts has been the strategy. This is a low intensity war tactic, with hardly any cost, as Pakistan was sure India will not retaliate, for fear of escalating the situation to a war, and that too with a country with a nuclear capability.

The nuclear arsenal was considered to be a huge deterrent and flaunted by Pakistan, as a deterrent against conventional warfare, if adopted by India.

India was caught in the limbo. Isolated terror attacks did not warrant a military response across the border. The International Community would have not taken to it. They would have viewed it as use of excessive force, and Pakistan could easily have played victim.

Over the years, Pakistan has developed an eco-system of politicians, journalists and sympathizers inside India, who were paid for, and did their bidding in discrediting and weakening India.

And add to this, a wimp like Manmohan Singh, and a double wimp like A K Antony as Prime Minister and Defense Minister, who were just puppets in the hand of Sonia Gandhi, who has no love lost for India, as a nation. Between them, they demoralized the armed forces completely. The public looked hapless. The International Community, which never had a high opinion of India, mocked at us. We, as a nation, suffered.

Then Modi happened. He and Ajit Duval worked hard to first bring the International Community to our fold. All the miles clocked by Modi had to pay dividends at some time. Remember 'Godfather'. How Michael Corleone systematically rebuild his fathers organization,  cemented the relationship with powerful politicians and judiciary ( 'getting all the connections wired up') before taking on the opposition, and destroying them in one night of action.

Perhaps Modi and Duval took a leaf out of Mario Puzo. My gut feeling is that Modi would have preferred to wait till the Second Term to teach Pakistan a military lesson. But his hand was forced by the attack on CRPF Jawans.

His hand was forced, just as Michael Corleones was when Don Corelone died a natural death. It couldnt be pushed back again. Modi had to attack here and now, and how he did. 

Our Air Force crossed over to Pakistan, and bombed the hell out of Terrorist Training Camps, and returned safely.

Pakistan Army, which virtually rules the Country,  controls the population through well managed anti-India rhetoric, while highlighting the capability (including nuclear) of Pakistan Army. People feared the Army and are in awe of it.

But India Air Force bombing Pakistan, and Pakistan Army unable to either stop it or retaliate (the feeble attempt with F-16 was a bigger disaster, only camouflaged by the capture of our pilot, fact remains that an obsolete MIG 21 downed a modern F-16), has totally discredited Pakistan Army. Despite the spin, having to return Indian Pilot within 3 days of capture, was a further loss of face. Pakistan suddenly found they had no friends at all, even OIC told them that they are dispensable.

I guess this is the beginning of the end of Pakistan. Once people lose their awe, and starts making fun of Pakistan Army, the control they had all these years is gone. 

With a failing economy, no oil reserves (Pakistan was forced to close down all Airports to save Aviation Fuel, so that they could be used by Military, if required), rising inflation, trouble prone areas like Baluchistan, POK, the future looks bleak.

All it requires is a push from India, which will happen post elections.

Prithvi, Mayank and Shreyas should form the backbone of Indian WC Middle Order

I am not quite convinced about the Indian Middle order. We lack one quality batsman.

Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan up the order, followed by Virat Kohli looks the best bet, though both Rohit and Shikhar have issues with the moving ball, and could be exposed in England during the World Cup.

 The real issue lies with # 4 and # 5. Despite his immense contribution to Indian Cricket, with due respects, M S Dhoni is no #4 nor # 5. Nor is Ambati Rayudu. Dinesh Karthik and Rishabh Pant are at best reasonable Wicket Keeper Batsmen who should not bat above #7. Since M S Dhoni brings more value as a Wicket Keeper - Batsman (and leader), he is the ideal owner of #7.

#6 is sealed by Kedar Jadhav. I love his composure and range of strokes. He is so still and calm at the Crease, and brings a sense of sanity down the order. And he has a terrific temperament to boot. Kedar, with his low arm, round arm off spin gives the extra option of the 5th/6th bowler to the Captain. He is your all rounder in the team.

# 8, 9, 10, 11 will be pure bowlers, most likely Bhuvaneswar Kumar, Bumrah, Mohammed Shami and either Chahal or Kuldeep Yadav. 3 Seamers in England with a wrist spinner and Kedar Jadhav should do the trick. Kohli and Rohit can turn their arms a bit too, if required, for a couple of overs.

Rohit, Shikhar, Kohli, #4, #5, Kedar Jadhav, M S Dhoni, Bhuvi, Kuldeep/ Chahal, Bumrah, Shami is ideal.

Which brings us to the question of #4 and #5.

I am not a great fan of bits and pieces cricketers, who can bat and bowl a bit. By that yardstick, I would not like to have Hardik Pandya (if fit) or Vijay Shankar or Ravindra Jadeja. That eliminates Dinesh Karthik and Rishabh Pant.

Hardik is a bit over hyped. He goes for a lot while bowling, and his batting is not reliable for # 4 or 5. Same applies to Vijay Shankar. He lacks pace to hurry the batsmen. Jadeja can be the 3rd spinner and the 12th man. Either Karthick or Pant should be considered only as a reserve Wicket Keeper batsman.

I would prefer to see two pure batsmen at #4 and # 5. Batsmen who can rebuild an innings if we lose 2-3 early wickets, and who can hit the ball around if a strong foundation is laid by top 3. In English conditions, you can always expect to lose 2-3 early wickets.

I would like to go for two out of the following three - Prithvi Shaw, Mayank Agarwal and Shreyas Iyer. Young Prithvi is a genius, with a wide range of strokes, and can fit in at #4. I liked what I saw of Mayank in Australia. Shreyas has done enough to earn the #5 spot. He has the strokes, the temperament and just enough experience. All three are good fielders.  Sheyas can give a couple of overs too, if needed. And all three are pure, classical batsmen who stand a better chance of succeeding against the moving ball. K L Rahul misses out, but he can either be a back up for one of the openers or Shreyas Iyer. Unfortunately, Shubhman Gill was not able to make much of the opportunities given to him in New Zealand. His turn will come, as he is very young.

My XI would be, 

Rohit, Shikhar, Kohli, Prithvi Shaw/Mayank Agarwal, Shreyas Iyer, Kedar Jadhav, M S Dhoni, Bhuvi, Kuldeep/ Chahal, Bumrah, Shami 

I am aware we lack a good 5th bowler in the team above. Either we have to sacrifice one of #4 or #5 for a bowler, or we live with this team, and expect Kedar, Kohli, Rohit, Sheyas to bowl 10 overs between them. We might give away 15-20 extra runs, which can be easily covered by the extra batsmen. In any case there is no guarantee that Hardik or Vijay Shankar wont be tonked around, considering their economy rates so far. Jadeja is an option, but his batting is iffy.

The iron is hot. Hit and flatten it now.

Now that our Pilot is back in Indian soil, let us finish this nuisance called Pakistan once and for all. The whole country and International Community is behind Modi, and he would earn its gratitude if we press home our advantage. Let us;

1. Declare Pakistan a Terrorist State
2. This would automatically mean cutting off diplomatic relations. Boot out the Pakistani High Commissioner and recall our High Commissioner
3. Tell Sushma Swaraj to stop issuing stupid medical visas to Pakistanis. Let them get treated in their precious country
4. Close all borders and trade with Pakistan. 
5. Stop the charade of Beating the Retreat in Attari-Wagah border.
6. Clean up Kashmir. Abolish Article 370 and 35 A. The latter can be done immediately, and 370 after election.
7. Take stringent action against all Pakistan sympathizers in Media, Bollywood and in Social Media ruthlessly. Arrest Mehbooba Mufti, Farook and Oman Abdullahs and anyone who talks for Separatist, dump them in a dungeon and throw away the key. We have hand enough of pampering them.
8. Replace the Satyapal Malik as Governor with someone who talks less, but is tough, and in consonance with Government of India policy in Kashmir.
9. Give free hand to Armed forces inside Kashmir with a clear mandate to clean up the terrorists and their supporters without mercy. Send the message across that anti national activities will not be tolerated, either inside Kashmir or outside of it in India. Let the pseudo liberals and peaceniks cry. Who cares?
10. Army to be given a free hand in conducting operations to strike at Pakistan to eliminate terrorists. It is time to bust the myth of the power of Pakistan Army. Once this is done, Politicians in Pakistan will have control of the Country, who can be managed.
11. Let Ajit Doval loose. Break Pakistan into 4. Recognize Baluchisthan as a Nation, reclaim POK.
12. Divide Jammu and Kashmir into 3 - Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh. 2 States and one UT.

The iron is hot. Hit and flatten it now. We have let by many opportunities in the past, but let us not repeat the mistake this time.  Let us crush and trample the pests. 

Let us not be politically correct for once.

The Emotional Issue that swings Elections

Early January, when opposition was making noise about Mahaghatbandhan, and opinion polls were giving Modi and BJP 220 seats at best, my friends asked my opinion.

I remarked that there was no doubt Modi will come back to power, but the question is whether BJP will come back with less seats, making Modi a lameduck Prime Minister. The logic was that UP, which BJP virtually swept in 2014 is tough to replicate, and there will be losses in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh. The gains from other parts of India may not be sufficient to overcome this.

True, Modi has done tremendously well on the Development front as promised - 100% electricity, 100% toilets, new roads built at frenetic pace (not just expressways, but more importantly the rural roads), work done on the farm front, direct benefit transfer scheme ( the money reaches the account of the beneficiary within hours with no middle men siphoning off a share ), Health Insurance for poor, Modernization of Railways................... the list is endless. And for 5 years this Government was absolutely not corrupt, and despite all the muck thrown by the Opposition, Modi's personal integrity is beyond question. He is a rarity in our Politics. No baggage in his case. His brothers and sisters still remain poor and humble,  his wife leads a dignified lower middle class life, and even his aged mother lives in Gujarat in a small house. 

But, I told my friends, no one has been re-elected on a Developmental Platform in India. Indian voters are smart, but they vote not just with their heads, but with their hearts too.

They need an emotional reason to vote. It could be caste, religion.

Modi and Shah know this, and I anticipated a revival of Ram Janma Bhoomi issue to swing the voters. I was skeptical. RJB has limited appeal on the election front these days, and its impact is limited to North India. Admittedly, Hindus want the temple to be built, but Modi has not taken a concrete step during the past 5 years, allowing the Supreme Court to drag the issue. To issue an ordinance at this late stage would have actually back fired on BJP. But I still didnt see anything else that could be used to create an emotional appeal in the voters. 

And then the rogue Pakistanis sent terrorists and killed 40 plus CRPF Jawans. Our opposition and anti-Modi gang were cock-a-hoop with joy. They were under the impression that India will make a token protest, conduct couple of shootings at LOC, over react in Kashmir and then sit back, as has been the case in the past. Or putting it in another way, India will whine and whine, and make a fool of itself.

They badly misjudged Modi. He and Shah are two of the shrewdest politicians in India. Also very patriotic. This was a gift wrapped in golden paper to them. 

Modi judged the mood of the nation correctly. The whole nation was baying for some strong action from Modi. He told them he has given the Armed Forces a free hand, whereby taking himself out of the equation, and not giving a chance for opposition to accuse he took political advantage (they did anyway, but people wont buy their arguments). 

It took 11 days. Just enough time for the anger to build up among patriotic Indians. As impatience grew, Modi and the Armed Forces prepared silently. What Indians didnt know was that our ISRO satellites cover 87% of Pakistani Territory, and can pick the mole on the face of a Pakistani in the area covered. The Armed Forces had clear and actionable intelligence. They were itching to give it back to Pakistan, but they needed Modi to show the political will to take this through and through.

Once the Army got actionable intelligence about JeM training camp, Modi showed his political power and leadership to ask Air Force to go across the border and bomb it to rubble killing 400 plus terrorists. 

Pakistan had bluffed all these years about the might of their army, their nuclear capability and an equivalence with Indian Armed Forces. And they badly miscalculated that India will not dare cross the border ever. They are also masters at false propaganda war.

In one strike, India called their bluff, showed them for the wimp they are, exposed to the world and their own people that Pakistani Army might is only on paper and neutralized their International Support (note how China, Saudi, UAE, USA, France put up a stony face when Pakistanis ran to them crying when India attacked). With Social Media very active these days, Pakistanis propaganda war was a non starter. They were laughed at in no time, whenever they made ridiculous statements. 

They had to do something to save their face and sent a few F-16 to attack our army bases. Our Air Force repelled them and shot one F-16 down. In the duel, we lost one MIG-21 and our pilot ejected on the Pakistani side of the LOC. Pakistan made a last ditch effort to use him as a bargaining chip, ably supported by their paid stooges in Indian opposition and media who drummed up support for talks, but Modi had balls. He refused to negotiate and demanded that the Pilot be returned as per Geneva Convention. Pakistan had never cared for Geneva Convention in the past. But times have changed, and all Modi's long flights to various countries paid off. The International Community read the riot act to Pakistan, and they agreed to return the Pilot in less than 72 hours. This took the wind out of the Opposition, paid media and so called anti-national peace-niks.

The paradigm has shifted permanently. Rogue Pakistan now know that there will be a heavy price to pay if they infiltrate again. Our Armed Forces, in their Press Conference, made this clear.

Indians can look up the world in the eyes and say we are proud to be Indians at last, and that we have balls. We have gained lot of respect. And our Self-Respect has just grown by leaps and bounds.

And now we have a pan-Indian emotional issue just at the time elections are going to be announced. In the villages of North India, the Jawans of their villages are very highly respected. The villagers dont take money from the Jawans for anything. They are also opinion leaders and heard with respect. Our Jawans were always let down by the Congress led Governments. After 70 years, they have found a Prime Minister who understands them, cares for them, gives them the best of equipment and stands by them in times of crisis. They will ensure that he is re-elected, for their, armed forces and nation's sake. 

And no wonder there are very deep worry lines on opposition leaders faces and the smug look sported by anti-Modi national TV anchors.

The Bully Learned a Lesson, albeit Painfully

These are difficult times. Pakistan sponsored terror attack on CRPF, and India's strong retaliation on JeM camps in Pakistan, has escalated the tension. It would not be wise on my part to add to the boiling cauldron. We let Modi, his team and the Armed Forces to do what is appropriate.

I am no war monger. But have been critical of India's wimpish response every time we have been attacked by Pakistan sponsored, trained terrorists. 

I am reminded of an incident about a decade ago, when I was teaching Executive MBA students in Kuwait. One of my student, unfortunately from my home state of Kerala, was in his early 30s,  a bit arrogant and a bully to boot.

Kuwait is a dry country. But illegal liquor was available. I have smelt liquor fumes in this student many a time, and asked him not to drive while returning home, under the influence of alcohol. He pooh-poohed my advisory, saying at best he will get a fine, which he will get erased from the system by paying someone bribe.

One night, he was driving home with another student of mine , when he was stopped by the Traffic Police. He was asked to take a breath analyzer test, which he failed. On being challenged ,he arrogantly told the Policeman to write a fine, as per the law. 

The Policeman looked at him calmly, and didn't like what he saw.

He said, "Oh no sir! I am not going to write a fine. This requires something else"

Saying that he opened his palm and slapped my student hard on his left cheek. The student staggered back a few steps from the impact of the slap.

The Policeman politely asked my other student in the passenger seat whether he is under the influence of alcohol. One getting a negative reply, he asked him to take over the wheel, and ensured they reached home safely.

The student who got the slap had a swollen face and impressions of 3-4 fingers on his cheek for 2-3 days. 

But more importantly, he never ever touched alcohol in Kuwait after that.

The Bully learned a Lesson, albeit painfully.

Modi and Shah turned things around quickly in a Month

A month is a long time in Politics.

The media, which is biased against Modi, was going ga-ga over Mahagadbandhan, Rahul Gandhis new found charisma, Priyanka Vadras 'political entry', SP-BSP Alliance in UP, BJPs lack of allies,  all backed by rigged opinion polls showing Modis declining popularity, and BJP unable to reach 250 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Congress tried its best to prop up Gadkari as an acceptable alternative to Modi.

Since I am from Kerala, everyone in my circles, were happy with Modi losing, and were cock-a-hoop.

I just told them "Just wait till Modi and Amit Shah get into the action"

They pooh-poohed me.

And then Modi and Shah really got into action.

First, they took the wind out of the opposition by introducing 10% reservation for the Economically backward, followed by raising IT limit to Rs 5 Lakhs. Then they announced support to farmers with low land holding with a  direct benefit of Rs 6000 per year. The media, which has no access to governmental decisions these days before they are announced (where has investigative journalism gone to?), and Opposition Parties were caught rocking on their heels. They just couldn't react against these moves, for fear of losing votes. Government did not just announce these schemes, but followed the announcement with speedy implementation, showing that these were planned well in advance but kept as a secret.

Opposition panicked and how.

To regain the space lost, Mamta went on a fast to prevent CBI from questioning the Calcutta City Commissioner of Police. Whatever little credibility she had, she lost by enacting this farce. The Opposition parties were forced to support her, and this made them a laughing stock. They were seen to be with the corrupt, and not with poor people who lost their all in the Chit Fund Scam.

With BSP and SP kicking out Congress in UP, the Mahagadbandhan became a stillborn baby. 

In the meanwhile, Amit Shah got to work.  He quietly finalized the Alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. With JD(U) already an Alliance partner in Bihar, and Akali Dal in Punjab BJP are in a strong position. Add to this Jaganmohan Reddy in AP and Chandrasekara Rao in Telengana, assuring post poll support, BJP has all their bases covered. They are strong in North East in any case. The best thing that could have happened to Modi was BJP losing in MP, Rajasthan and Karnataka. In a few months, people saw the alternative to BJP and they are not amused. Kamal Nath, HD Kumaraswamy are unmitigated disasters, and Gehlot just marginally better. In Karnataka, Congress is discredited, having come out as poor alliance partners, who could not be trusted. Kamal Naths' arrival coincided with Urea shortage in MP and people are not amused. If BJP had won in these states, they would have had to handle the anti-incumbency. Now the ire is against the current governments. 

And add to oppositions miseries, Pakistani Terrorists attacked CRPF jawans and killed them. The nation was enraged. They just got behind Modi instantaneously, and gave him their full support. They wanted Kashmir cleaned up, and Pakistan taught a lesson. Modi is getting his act together in Kashmir, and Army, any day will teach Pakistan a lesson. Another thing to be noted here is that Elections may be deferred in Kashmir, which means a reduction of 6 Loksabha seats. Modi will require only 537/2 = 268 MPs for a majority. Even the worst biased poll in December gave him 220-240. With the current developments, my take is that Modi will easily cross 320.

And that is good for India for the next decade. We will see the development works speeding up, as the economic correction needed has been done, and the Government is flush with funds. The foundation was laid during the past five years, and a re-elected Modi will be bolder and stronger.

Of Jobs, Skills et al.

To undermine the economic success of India under the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the opposition has been working overtime, with their cronies in the media and the left economic circles, to create a narrative that this growth is essentially one where job creation is minimal. Nothing creates an anti government feeling than joblessness. And the discredited opposition know that.

I would not like to go by the Statistical Figures. The Government's measurement of many parameters is as archaic as ever. The guys in charge, and the opposition, think that only jobs created in the Government sector counts. This is not true. The EPF registrations have grown, showing either an increase in jobs created in the Private Sector, or alternatively more compliance on the part of Company owners, who were abusing the system pre-demonitization. And the number of entrepreneurs have grown by leaps and bounds, which is also another way of creating employment. Since EPF registration is not mandatory if the number of employees is less than 15 in an Organization, there is hardly any data available from the MSME Sector regarding job creation, and MSME sector, in any Country, is the biggest employment generator.

The ground reality is different. I undertook some random surveys with young Engineering Graduates who passed out during 2015, 2016 and 2017. Almost all the Graduates have found a job somewhere, not necessarily the jobs of their choice, but a job none the less. And they confirmed their classmates, those who are not pursuing higher studies apart, are all employed. It is interesting to note that Girls are more gainfully employed than Boys. It may have something to do with Girls willing to take up any job on offer, and Boys feeling some jobs are beneath their dignity.

This is not conclusive proof but an indicator neverthless.

One area of concern is the Private Sector abusing these young graduates by taking them as apprentices and paying them not even the minimum wages. I know of many Engineering Graduates earning less than Rs 10,000 per month, and employed for a period of exactly one year, after which they are again out searching for jobs. 

While admittedly, this one year period ensures skill development, and gives them valuable experience, it can be improved. Companies have decided to tackle trade unionism by replacing workers with these Engineering/ Diploma Graduates, who being apprentices, have hardly any rights. This also affects non Engineering/ Diploma Graduates who would have otherwise landed up doing these Production Line jobs.

The Non Engineering/ Diploma holders are further affected due to the mechanization in our factories, which have almost but replaced manual labour with automation, and dependency on skilled labour.

A conscious effort has to be made to revive our Diploma Programs. The Junior Technical Schools and Polytechnics have been pushed to the background, as Engineering seats have become accessible to students with low marks. It is another matter that the quality of these Engineering Graduates are bad. The JTS and Polytechnics served a great purpose in developing the skill sets of many an youngster in the past. The success of migration of Keralites to Gulf in 1980s and 90s is mainly due to their higher level of skill sets obtained from JTS and Polytechnics.

The need of the hour is to upgrade the syllabus in both the JTS and Polytechnic, and definitely the Engieering Programs. 

Youngsters and parents seek advise from me as to the prospects of higher studies on their completion of Graduation, Engineering or otherwise. I always tell the youngsters to go out and work for a couple of years before they pursue higher studies, as a couple of years of further irrelevant book oriented studies is not likely to serve any purpose. And those who took my advise seriously have come back and validated my theory by admitting how couple of years of working have changed them as a person, improved their skill sets and made them better persons.

Government can make it a point to convert the last year of the Graduation/ Polytechnic Program to one of compulsory apprenticeship. The Companies can be encouraged to take in these graduates by giving them a tax incentive provided 'X%' of Graduates are taken in every year. Government should also ensure at least minimum wages are paid to these apprentices. This will also ensure the student understanding the dignity of labour and not living in ivory towers expecting an AC cabin, a car and a secretary in their first job.

This way, the development of hard and soft skills of the students are ensured, giving them more self confidence, and ensuring the Organizations have a ready workforce to be tapped into, who are skilled and has Work Sense.