Early January, when opposition was making noise about Mahaghatbandhan, and opinion polls were giving Modi and BJP 220 seats at best, my friends asked my opinion.
I remarked that there was no doubt Modi will come back to power, but the question is whether BJP will come back with less seats, making Modi a lameduck Prime Minister. The logic was that UP, which BJP virtually swept in 2014 is tough to replicate, and there will be losses in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh. The gains from other parts of India may not be sufficient to overcome this.
True, Modi has done tremendously well on the Development front as promised - 100% electricity, 100% toilets, new roads built at frenetic pace (not just expressways, but more importantly the rural roads), work done on the farm front, direct benefit transfer scheme ( the money reaches the account of the beneficiary within hours with no middle men siphoning off a share ), Health Insurance for poor, Modernization of Railways................... the list is endless. And for 5 years this Government was absolutely not corrupt, and despite all the muck thrown by the Opposition, Modi's personal integrity is beyond question. He is a rarity in our Politics. No baggage in his case. His brothers and sisters still remain poor and humble, his wife leads a dignified lower middle class life, and even his aged mother lives in Gujarat in a small house.
But, I told my friends, no one has been re-elected on a Developmental Platform in India. Indian voters are smart, but they vote not just with their heads, but with their hearts too.
They need an emotional reason to vote. It could be caste, religion.
Modi and Shah know this, and I anticipated a revival of Ram Janma Bhoomi issue to swing the voters. I was skeptical. RJB has limited appeal on the election front these days, and its impact is limited to North India. Admittedly, Hindus want the temple to be built, but Modi has not taken a concrete step during the past 5 years, allowing the Supreme Court to drag the issue. To issue an ordinance at this late stage would have actually back fired on BJP. But I still didnt see anything else that could be used to create an emotional appeal in the voters.
And then the rogue Pakistanis sent terrorists and killed 40 plus CRPF Jawans. Our opposition and anti-Modi gang were cock-a-hoop with joy. They were under the impression that India will make a token protest, conduct couple of shootings at LOC, over react in Kashmir and then sit back, as has been the case in the past. Or putting it in another way, India will whine and whine, and make a fool of itself.
They badly misjudged Modi. He and Shah are two of the shrewdest politicians in India. Also very patriotic. This was a gift wrapped in golden paper to them.
Modi judged the mood of the nation correctly. The whole nation was baying for some strong action from Modi. He told them he has given the Armed Forces a free hand, whereby taking himself out of the equation, and not giving a chance for opposition to accuse he took political advantage (they did anyway, but people wont buy their arguments).
It took 11 days. Just enough time for the anger to build up among patriotic Indians. As impatience grew, Modi and the Armed Forces prepared silently. What Indians didnt know was that our ISRO satellites cover 87% of Pakistani Territory, and can pick the mole on the face of a Pakistani in the area covered. The Armed Forces had clear and actionable intelligence. They were itching to give it back to Pakistan, but they needed Modi to show the political will to take this through and through.
Once the Army got actionable intelligence about JeM training camp, Modi showed his political power and leadership to ask Air Force to go across the border and bomb it to rubble killing 400 plus terrorists.
Pakistan had bluffed all these years about the might of their army, their nuclear capability and an equivalence with Indian Armed Forces. And they badly miscalculated that India will not dare cross the border ever. They are also masters at false propaganda war.
In one strike, India called their bluff, showed them for the wimp they are, exposed to the world and their own people that Pakistani Army might is only on paper and neutralized their International Support (note how China, Saudi, UAE, USA, France put up a stony face when Pakistanis ran to them crying when India attacked). With Social Media very active these days, Pakistanis propaganda war was a non starter. They were laughed at in no time, whenever they made ridiculous statements.
They had to do something to save their face and sent a few F-16 to attack our army bases. Our Air Force repelled them and shot one F-16 down. In the duel, we lost one MIG-21 and our pilot ejected on the Pakistani side of the LOC. Pakistan made a last ditch effort to use him as a bargaining chip, ably supported by their paid stooges in Indian opposition and media who drummed up support for talks, but Modi had balls. He refused to negotiate and demanded that the Pilot be returned as per Geneva Convention. Pakistan had never cared for Geneva Convention in the past. But times have changed, and all Modi's long flights to various countries paid off. The International Community read the riot act to Pakistan, and they agreed to return the Pilot in less than 72 hours. This took the wind out of the Opposition, paid media and so called anti-national peace-niks.
The paradigm has shifted permanently. Rogue Pakistan now know that there will be a heavy price to pay if they infiltrate again. Our Armed Forces, in their Press Conference, made this clear.
Indians can look up the world in the eyes and say we are proud to be Indians at last, and that we have balls. We have gained lot of respect. And our Self-Respect has just grown by leaps and bounds.
And now we have a pan-Indian emotional issue just at the time elections are going to be announced. In the villages of North India, the Jawans of their villages are very highly respected. The villagers dont take money from the Jawans for anything. They are also opinion leaders and heard with respect. Our Jawans were always let down by the Congress led Governments. After 70 years, they have found a Prime Minister who understands them, cares for them, gives them the best of equipment and stands by them in times of crisis. They will ensure that he is re-elected, for their, armed forces and nation's sake.
And no wonder there are very deep worry lines on opposition leaders faces and the smug look sported by anti-Modi national TV anchors.
