Wheels are coming off the Congress Party one by one. And it is due to their arrogance and the sense of entitlement they feel.
With just 44 seats in the last Lok Sabha poll, and not a major player in majority of the States, Congress should have eaten the humble pie and tried to not play the big brother with other Opposition parties. They got away with a majority share of seats in Kerala (mainly due to Muslim League not insisting on more seats despite having 18 MLAs to Congress's 22, because of their internal politics. Congress will contest in nearly 16 seats out of 20 in Kerala), and got a more than the deserved number of seats in Tamil Nadu (probably Stalin extracted a good financial compensation from Congress here).
They are in shambles in the rest of the country. Look at the scenario below;
- In UP, SP and BSP has shut the door firmly on Congress. Congress is humiliated, but dare not refuse SP-BSP support only in Amethi and Rae Bareili, where Rahul and Sonia contests. If Congress has any sense of self respect, they should dare SP-BSP to contest against Ma-Beta. But they wont, for both will not even retain their deposits if they do that. That is how popular they are in their constituencies.
- BSP has categorically told that they will not have any association with Congress anywhere in India. This is a body blow. The BSP has solid transferable votes, and their refusal do not augur well for Congress. It also shows Mayawati has judged the mood of the nation well, and has kept the door open for a post poll BJP tie up if required. In the least, she wants to be on good terms with BJP, in order for her numerous cases to be soft pedaled. Both BSP and Congress aim at the same vote bank - Dalits. Mayawati doesnt like this. She is very protective of her core vote bank. Hence her decision.
- Mamta hates Rahul Gandhi, and wont touch Congress with a ten foot poll in Bengal. She is also miffed with Rahul for not supporting her in Tripura a year ago. The end result is that Congress has to go for seat sharing in some seats with CPM of the all the people, with whom they are fighting in Kerala.
- The JDS is driving a hard bargain in Karnataka and the seat sharing is not finalized yet. JDS has not forgotten the humiliation heaped on their CM by the alliance partner Congress. Even if there is an alliance, the Chemistry is so bad, you can get JDS cadre will try their best to ensure Congress is defeated.
- Maharashtra is an interesting case. Congress and NCP are in it together. But once BJP finalized with Shiv Sena, many NCP candidates, and quite a few Congress candidates have developed cold feet. And some of them have switched over to BJP, including the Congress opposition leaders son. Sharad Pawar is a potential PM Candidate if opposition cobbles a majority. But he has decided not to fight. He is a weather cock. He has understood Modi is winning, and wisely decided to stay out. This is a clear indication NCP doesnt have the stomach for a fight, and is not expected to pull their weight in Maharashtra.
- Congress is out of the frame in Orissa. Even if BJD gets a few seats, they are an automatic partner for BJP if required.
- Congress has declined to partner with AAP in Delhi. This is the only principled stand they have taken. But that is more due to their distrust of Kejriwal. Both Congress and AAP fight for the same vote bank. It is likely BJP will win a few seats in Delhi, which would not have happened if Congress and AAP have joined hands, as BJP has a solid 35% votes in Delhi.
- Gujarat - Congress is in a disarray, with MLAs resigning and joining BJP every day. In any case for a Gujarathi, Modi is their pride. They will ensure he is given as much MPs as possible.
- Bihar - All is not well with RJD and Congress. Congress has been seeking the same seats where RJD is strong, and this has not gone down well with Tejaswi Yadav. Still they might go to the polls together. But with Nitish Kumar aligning with BJP, it is not an cake walk for them, in fact, they may not get 40% of the seats
- This leaves Punjab, MP and Rajastan where Congress is in power and dont need allies. Captain Amareendar Singh is respected and will win Punjab. There is discontent against Kamal Nath and Gehlot in MP and Rajastan. Both just scraped through in the Assembly elections. People have started longing for Chouhan again in MP. It is my take that Congress will get a set back in these two States
- That leaves AP and Telengana. Congress has no alliances in both these States, and wont even retain their Deposits in any of the seats.
As things stand, the best case scenario for Congress is 80 seats across the country, but my take is it will be closer to 65.
And it will reduce further if Rahul Gandhi keeps on talking about a non existent scam in Rafaele, and attack the Army, which has not gone down well with patriotic Indians. The more Rahul or Priyanka speaks, the more people will vote for BJP.
