Rain check on Crystal Ball Gazing 2008

On 2nd January 2008, I had a post titled 'Crystal Ball Gazing 2008'. There, I had made some predictions for 2008. You can read the post here http://rajanvenkateswaran.blogspot.com/2008/01/crystal-ball-gazing-2008.html

Unlike others, I went back to my predictions and did a review. Of course, even I couldnt predict the Global financial meltdown or the Mumbai carnage. But still, it is worthwhile to take a rain check. The original post is in italics, with my comments at the end of the year in brackets.


Beginning of an year is ideal for crystal ball gazing. Let me make some predictions.

The political comatose situation in the Centre is likely to continue. Though the Gujarat results have ensured that the chances of a General Election in 2008 is almost zero. Congress party will try to retain power by making any compromise ( of course they did precisely this by teaming up with Mulayam and Amar Singh, allowing all coalition partners do whatever (looting) they want to do in their ministries)

and the CPI(M) who can pull down the Government is wary of doing so in view of the shaky ground they find themselves in currently in West Bengal and Kerala, only place where they have a presence. (I misread CPM. They did try to pull down the government but ended up with mud in their faces)

Other coalition partners are totally against a General Election. Congress will hope against hope to perform better in the Assembly elections due in BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh and Rajastan to give them some momentum leading to General Election in early 2009.(they did well in Rajastan and we didnt see the General Election in 2008)

Dr.Manmohan Singh is a good man. But good men don't make great leaders. I would any day prefer a scoundrel who is a good leader and administrator to a spineless good man. He should have quit long ago if he had any decency left rather than allowing himself to be ridiculed by his party and every other coalition partners. I don't think even the cleaning staff in his office shows any respect for him. (They still dont)

All the while, the power behind the throne, Sonia Gandhi, hides behind a barricade refusing to give press or TV interviews but wielding enormous Authority without any Accountability. (She still is not accountable)

BJP is in disarray and despite the victory in Gujarat and HP, they have failed totally as a responsible opposition party.(they have not been great shakes as an opposition party, while credit must be given to them for extending support to the Government on terror laws. But BJP under Advani has been an unmitigated disaster)

We might however see a realignment of forces leading to the General election at local and national levels.(We did see SP joining UPA, and CPM tying up with AIADMK. But since elections are still a few months away, there was no sense of urgency for realignment). The strength and number of alliance partners will decide who will rule India for the next five years. Not a pleasant scenario politically. Cry my beloved country!

Economically, this is not going to be great.(it was not great and how) With the government refusing to take hard steps, the drift that started a year back is likely to continue. (the drift did continue accentuated by the global crisis) .With the world poised for a recession, the impact will be felt on Indian economy.(It did. And the world is into serious recessionary mode). We may not get the high 9% GDP Growth rate. Appreciating rupee (I was wrong here. Rupee depreciated drastically), near stagnant growth in Agriculture (correct here), drop in Industrial production (right here), continued subsidies (farm loan waiver and more coverage for NREG) and downtrend in exports (right here too) will ensure that we end up with a 7% Growth.(luck to get just that. but I was spot on). With inflation likely to be in the range of 5-6% (Even I was shocked at the inflation reachig 12%, but then I am not in a minority here, but by the end of the year it is back to 6%, but I admit being wrong here) , the Real GDP growth rate is likely to be 1-2% which is worrisome. We can expect more social sector spending, more sops and in all likelihood another Pay Commission award to government employees.(Was spot on in all these. Pay commission has been announced). The last will fuel inflation. (it did) .As will high energy prices. (ditto). Government has been refusing to take hard decisions on the pricing of the petroleum products, but this cant be put off forever. Higher fuel prices is will increase inflationary pressures. Rupee is expected to maintain its position and is likely to be in the bandwidth of Rs 38 - 41 during the year.(Wrong here). Real Estate prices will remain stagnant and stock markets might stabilize at 18000-21000 as all the above factors will make investors cautious.(right on first, wrong on second. but who foresaw the subprime triggered crisis) Gold will rule roost (it does) and may even appreciate by 10% (it did) mainly as a result of weak dollar. Good time to invest in yellow metal.(you should have listened to my advice and would have made money in a slumping financial market if you had invested in gold). Decisions of SEZs likely to be put off (we dont even hear about SEZ these days) but there could be some spurt in infrastructure projects so that the Government can show some visible progress.

Internal security will continue to be a cause for worry as the Government has virtually slept through the past 4 years hardly putting any concrete systems in place to counter terrorism. Borders will continue to be sensitive with Pakistan on a transition phase, Bangladesh unstable, Nepal shaky, China a nuisance and Srilanka on a razor edge. Again as a nation, we are paying the price for being meek with our neighbours. With certain type of people, only might talks not diplomacy.(You dont have to be a genius not to see this. All you need to be is not be Shivraj Patil, because everyone other than this idiot and his masters were aware Mumbai was waiting to happen)

Energy front will continue to suffer from the lack of foresight of the successive governments. Nuclear deal is all but dead, with both Indian and US governments more than happy to pass on the buck to the next governments(I misread Dr.Manmohan Singh totally on this. Never thought the hold US had over him was so strong that he laid everything on line to get this cleared). We are not likely to meet the targets for Power generation capacity enhancement in 2008(We didnt). This will adversely affect our growth in the long run. We need energy security and the crying need of the hour is some out of the box thinking.(It still needs out of the box thinking)

Not much success can be expected on the sports front. 2008 is an Olympics year. The drama of a large contingent going to Beijing and returning empty handed is likely to be repeated. ( I reckoned without Abhinav Bindra. My apologies.Miracles do happen). Cricket team does not evoke much confident(this is one big error of judgement. the cricket team has been superb) and we will have to be happy with an occasional victory for Sania Mirza (I got even that wrong), who is never going to crack the top 10. Only saving grace could be the Chess Players and it is time someone recognized Vishy Anand and gave him a Bharat Ratna.(Vishy vindicated my faith in him by winning the World Title by beating Kramnik). The guy is the most underrated sportsperson in India and the only one who has brought laurels to the country consistently.

Environmental degradation, crowded cities, breaking down of civic infrastructure, continued poverty of the rural people, more industries, burgeoning middle class, growing consumption economy, status quo in eduction - all these are likely to continue.(It does continue)

It is a small miracle how we progress inspite of the system, but we do.

Mera Bharat Mahan!


Not bad eh!. I got many right. Maybe I should change my job. But then I dont want to.