Monday 3 May 2010

The lag effect

One of my students did a study on 'Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Income, Expenditure and Consumption of Indian Families in Kuwait' during the third quarter of 2009, albeit when the Global Financial Crisis was just off its peak.




Contrary to popular perception, the study revealed that Indian families in Kuwait were not affected adversely at all during the Financial Crisis. In fact 90% of the families were either better off or not affected at all. The sampling was done in late September/early October 2009. The study was honestly and scientifically done, and hence there is no reason to question the validity of the study. Last week, one of my friends pointed out a RBI report which said that the remittances from NRI's did not diminish during the Financial crisis, thereby vindicating our findings somewhat.




With global economy showing signs of revival, one would have expected employment opportunities to look up in the first half of 2010. But surprisingly, the job market in Kuwait is very dull. This could be due to the lag effect of the recession.




The companies during 2009 had surplus from earlier years which enabled them to manage their cash flow. Added to this, they took time to freeze their strategy to counter the recession. This resulted in status quo being maintained through 2009. Though the economy is on the upswing, these strategies are bearing fruit only now, leading to job cuts, salary freeze and temporary ban on recruitments. With companies having a bad 2009, cash flow in 2010 has been bad, further aggrevating the situation.




But with job market trailing the economic situation by 6 months, we can expect the situation to improve by late 2010 or early 2011. So hang on till then! - Cartoon sourced through Google Images

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