Crystal Ball gazing 2008

Beginning of an year is ideal for crystal ball gazing. Let me make some predictions.

The political comatose situation in the Centre is likely to continue. Though the Gujarat results have ensured that the chances of a General Election in 2008 is almost zero. Congress party will try to retain power by making any compromise and the CPI(M) who can pull down the Government is wary of doing so in view of the shaky ground they find themselves in currently in West Bengal and Kerala, only place where they have a presence. Other coalition partners are totally against a General Election. Congress will hope against hope to perform better in the Assembly elections due in BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh and Rajastan to give them some momentum leading to General Election in early 2009. Dr.Manmohan Singh is a good man. But good men don't make great leaders. I would any day prefer a scoundrel who is a good leader and administrator to a spineless good man. He should have quit long ago if he had any decency left rather than allowing himself to be ridiculed by his party and every other coalition partners. I don't think even the cleaning staff in his office shows any respect for him. All the while, the power behind the throne, Sonia Gandhi, hides behind a barricade refusing to give press or TV interviews but wielding enormous Authority without any Accountability. BJP is in disarray and despite the victory in Gujarat and HP, they have failed totally as a responsible opposition party. We might however see a realignment of forces leading to the General election at local and national levels. The strength and number of alliance partners will decide who will rule India for the next five years. Not a pleasant scenario politically. Cry my beloved country!

Economically, this is not going to be great. With the government refusing to take hard steps, the drift that started a year back is likely to continue. With the world poised for a recession, the impact will be felt on Indian economy. We may not get the high 9% GDP Growth rate. Appreciating rupee, near stagnant growth in Agriculture, drop in Industrial production, continued subsidies and downtrend in exports will ensure that we end up with a 7% Growth. With inflation likely to be in the range of 5-6% (forget what the government claims, the ground reality is that we have 5% inflation, if not more), the Real GDP growth rate is likely to be 1-2% which is worrisome. We can expect more social sector spending, more sops and in all likelihood another Pay Commission award to government employees. The last will fuel inflation. As will high energy prices. Government has been refusing to take hard decisions on the pricing of the petroleum products, but this cant be put off forever. Higher fuel prices is will increase inflationary pressures. Rupee is expected to maintain its position and is likely to be in the bandwidth of Rs 38 - 41 during the year. Real Estate prices will remain stagnant and stock markets might stabilize at 18000-21000 as all the above factors will make investors cautious. Gold will rule roost and may even appreciate by 10% mainly as a result of weak dollar. Good time to invest in yellow metal. Decisions of SEZs likely to be put off but there could be some spurt in infrastructure projects so that the Government can show some visible progress.

Internal security will continue to be a cause for worry as the Government has virtually slept through the past 4 years hardly putting any concrete systems in place to counter terrorism. Borders will continue to be sensitive with Pakistan on a transition phase, Bangladesh unstable, Nepal shaky, China a nuisance and Srilanka on a razor edge. Again as a nation, we are paying the price for being meek with our neighbours. With certain type of people, only might talks not diplomacy.

Energy front will continue to suffer from the lack of foresight of the successive governments. Nuclear deal is all but dead, with both Indian and US governments more than happy to pass on the buck to the next governments. We are not likely to meet the targets for Power generation capacity enhancement in 2008. This will adversely affect our growth in the long run. We need energy security and the crying need of the hour is some out of the box thinking.

Not much success can be expected on the sports front. 2008 is an Olympics year. The drama of a large contingent going to Beijing and returning empty handed is likely to be repeated. Cricket team does not evoke much confident and we will have to be happy with an occasional victory for Sania Mirza, who is never going to crack the top 10. Only saving grace could be the Chess Players and it is time someone recognized Vishy Anand and gave him a Bharat Ratna. The guy is the most underrated sportsperson in India and the only one who has brought laurels to the country consistently.

Environmental degradation, crowded cities, breaking down of civic infrastructure, continued poverty of the rural people, more industries, burgeoning middle class, growing consumption economy, status quo in eduction - all these are likely to continue.

It is a small miracle how we progress inspite of the system, but we do.

Mera Bharat Mahan!